Timeform's Lewis Tomlinson looks at four different angles ahead of the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York this week.
Draw bias in the sprints
It’s perhaps the most blatant angle of the lot, but advantage held by those drawn low in sprints at York has become amongst the most pronounced in the country.
Last season’s Ebor Festival typically saw the bias at play; the three sprint handicaps on the opening day were won by horses exiting stalls 6, 4 and 1. Diligently won the Goffs Million from stall 2, Tropical Storm beat 16 rivals in the Roses Stakes from stall 1 and the Constantine Handicap saw those drawn 1-9 form their own group and fill all bar one of the first nine places.
The theme was continued at York’s most recent meeting; Elmonjed leading home a 1-2-3-4-5 for those drawn in single-figure stalls in the Sky Bet Dash.
Those bodes well for favourite backers on Wednesday, with The Man, Luna A Inbhir Nis and Dublin Bay all berthed on the usually-favoured far side, whilst the 3 market leaders in Thursday’s valuable sales race are also pitched in single-figure stalls.
Top-class Twomey heads in-form brigade
It’s not a huge surprise that the likes of William Haggas, Charlie Appleby, Andrew Balding and Karl Burke find themselves on the Timeform “hot” list heading into York this week, but there are several other trainers who will be bidding to continue a rich vein of form on the Knavesmire this week.
Chief amongst them is Katie Scott, who holds live chances to notch the most significant success of her career on the opening day courtesy of recent Musselburgh winner Curious Rover and the aforementioned five-time handicap winner Luna A Inbhir Nis, whose development since finishing last of nine from an opening mark of 60 on her handicap bow back in March has been amongst the individual training performances of the season.
Charlie Clover reached double figures in his debut season with a license when Calyxoh scored at Newbury on Friday and will saddle his first York runner when the progressive A’Ali G lines up in the Sky Bet Nursery on Wednesday. Well drawn in stall 2, he’ll have the benefit of Warren Fentiman in the saddle, whose 5lb claim more than offsets the rise he was handed for winning at Ripon last time.
And it’d perhaps be glib to describe Paddy Twomey as “in-form” – when are his horses not running well? – but even by his high standards, the Tipperary trainer is in the midst of an outstanding season.
His fillies Super Sox and Elena Osario completed a black-type double on the card at Cork last week, adding to an absurd Run To Form rate of 73.9%, and Twomey will be hunting for further Pattern-race success at York, with his Queen’s Vase winner Carmers aiming to take the scalp of dual-Derby winner Lambourn in the Great Voltigeur.
Distant relative adds intrigue to juvenile posse
York plays host to a trio of juvenile Group races this week, though somewhat ironically, it’s the Group 3 Acomb that has proved more significant than its Group 2 counterparts the Gimcrack and the Lowther in the recent past.
Phoenix Of Spain and Chaldean both went on record Classic success the season following their Acomb victories, whilst Gear Up became the second Acomb winner this century to record a top-level success as a juvenile when winning the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
Last season’s renewal saw a clash between two heavyweight operations and though Coolmore won the battle on the day, The Lion In Winter producing arguably the most striking 2-y-o performance of the season, Godolphin surely won the war with Ruling Court, beaten into third, becoming the second 2,000 Guineas winner in the last three years to have taken in the Acomb as a juvenile.
Their combatants this season are Italy, who received Timeform’s “Large P” after his taking debut success at Leopardstown and was looked as if still in need of the experience when runner-up in Superlative Stakes, and Distant Storm, who beat no fewer than six next-time-out winners in taking the Newmarket maiden won by Field Of Gold last year.
There’s also a significant bloodstock angle to this season’s Acomb; Distant Storm is out of Date With Destiny, fairly unremarkable in terms of what she’d achieved on the track, but most notable as the sole daughter of George Washington. Should Distant Storm produce the goods on the Knavesmire this week, he’ll surely put himself in prime position both for top honours in the leading juvenile contests late in the season, and for a future place at stud.
It would be an extraordinary story if, despite his infamous infertility, the bloodline of “Gorgeous George” was visible in the thoroughbred population for years to come, especially if the stallion stood under the Godolphin banner.
Rosallion a star but few City slickers
The most significant change to the race programme at this year’s Ebor Festival has been the welcome upgrade to Group One status awarded to the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes.
It’s always been a strange quirk of the pattern that after a dearth of ideal opportunities for high-class seven furlong performers in the first half of the season, the City of York comes in such quick succession after the Lennox and the Hungerford - and only a handful of weeks ahead of the Park Stakes - races which are all designed to attract a very similar pool of horses.
Throw in the proximity of Prix Maurice de Gheest, a long-established Group One over just half a furlong shorter, I’m still less convinced than others about the necessity for a top-level British contest at the trip.
The cynic in me says that no-one aims to breed a seven-furlong horse – surely all that end up over the distance are initially intended to be top-class sprinters or top-class milers – and the average winning Timeform rating of the City of York across the last 5 years is actually a shade lower than that of the Lennox.
And perhaps I’m being a shade negative again, but I’d wager William Derby and co are feeling fortunate that Rosallion suffered a slight setback last week, meaning the Hannon camp have diverted from their original plan of the Jacques le Marois. He’s arguably the only proven top-notcher in the line up, though it could so prove that Never So Brave is a bona-fide Group 1 operator given his current rate of progression for Andrew Balding. Beyond that pair, though, you’d surely be optimistic to say the remainder of the field looks up to it’s top-class billing
With all that being said, the prize money on offer for the City Of York – over £340k will go to the winner – means hopefully this will be a gradual case of “if you build it they will come,” and if there’s one track in the country you could rely on turning this race into a real feature of the British calendar, it is certainly York.
Good luck this week, everyone.
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