Five autumn dilemmas for Aidan O’Brien as he bids to break his own Group 1 record

After three Group 1 victories over the weekend – Scandinavia in the Betfred St Leger, Delacroix in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes and Precise in the Moyglare – there is chat about Aidan O’Brien breaking his own record for number of Group/Grade 1 wins in a calendar year.

Eight years ago he wrestled Bobby Frankel’s world record away from him when he recorded 28 top-level victories in a stunning campaign, but after he landed his 16th, 17th and 18th Group 1 wins of the season at the weekend he’s closing in on his own feat with plenty to play for in Britain, France, America and Hong Kong in the closing months of 2025.

He’s got an immense squad to pick from as he bids to navigate his way through the Group 1 schedule worldwide, but there will be several key dilemmas for him to ponder along the way; here are five he might well be debating with The Lads behind closed doors.

1. What to do with Delacroix?
2. Should Whirl stay closer to home?
3. Could the Lion be the rabbit from the hat?
4. If not Scandinavia, who’s up for the Cup?
5. How to get a G1 out of Gstaad at two?

1. What to do with Delacroix after his second Group 1 win over 10 furlongs – same again, nothing, or a mile?

If Delacroix had something to prove ahead of the Irish Champion – and with a muddling Coral-Eclipse the sole Group 1 victory to his name he probably did – then he went some way to proving himself the real deal at Leopardstown.

The turn of foot he showcased to take control of Saturday’s race was sublime and while it wasn’t a vintage renewal of the contest thanks to some key personnel missing, it was a performance that will live long in the memory.

Indeed, the only negative came in the aftermath when Aidan O’Brien raised the possibility of the Ballydoyle team drawing stumps on his career with almost immediate effect.

He said: “If he was to run again, he has all the options really, but I don’t know, the lads can do anything they want with him.

"He could go back to a mile, all the things are open, but I’m afraid to say it in case the lads say that’s it and it might be."

His value to the Coolmore breeding operation is huge given he’s by Dubawi and can therefore breed with their heavily-laden Galileo broodmare band, but there is another part of Aidan’s sentence that stands out and that’s ‘he could go back to a mile’.

If we’re thinking commercial interests will drive the decisions regarding Delacroix’s remaining race schedule, if there is one, then winning a Group 1 over a mile will add serious extra gloss to the stallion adverts and he has a couple of options in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Indeed, with the punting cap on I would much rather take the 10/1 and 12/1 about him for the QEII than the 6/1 he takes on Ombudsman again, the mile race being won by middle-distance horses before - notably Rip Van Winkle and Minding for O’Brien, while Roaring Lion successfully dropped back to the mile distance with commercial interests in mind.

You sense this decision will rest more with the owners than O’Brien, but it is with hope we get to see him again. It would be a shame if that was that for Delacroix, just when he leaves us wanting more.

2. Should Whirl stay closer to home after blotting her copybook in the Qatar Prix Vermeille at Longchamp? She’s 20/1 for the Champion Stakes…

It will be fascinating to see what O’Brien does with Whirl next. Here was a filly with serious momentum as she bounced out of her Oaks battle with winning stablemate Minnie Hauk, sinking Kalpana in the Pretty Polly and then routing her Nassau rivals in the Goodwood gloom.

But it all went wrong in the Prix Vermeille, where she was sent off 1/2 but finished last of the six on her first go at 1m4f since her Epsom second. Priced up at 6/1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe pre-Vermeille, she’s now out to 40s leaving O’Brien scratching his head with the remainder of her season in mind.

One option is the Prix de l’Opera de Longines run over 10 furlongs on Arc weekend. O’Brien last won that race with Rhododendron – also second in the Oaks at Epsom – and if not the Arc then this looks a suitable slot for the daughter of Wootton Bassett.

But what if Longchamp, or the travelling, was the problem? There are options closer to home and if Delacroix does skip the Qipco British Champion Stakes, for the QEII or otherwise, then there will be an opening for a stablemate to slip into his shoes.

That could be Los Angeles, or maybe Henri Matisse might step up in trip. But neither quite have the allure of Whirl, who looked a filly going places in the summer. Given her versatility regarding the ground, she could easily emerge as O’Brien’s number one for the Champion Stakes if the Prix de l’Opera suddenly disappears from her radar.

3. Could The Lion In Winter be the rabbit from the hat? Cheekpieces and another drop back in trip might be required.

If O’Brien is to break his own Group 1 record you sense there will have to be the odd winner from leftfield and after a truncated 2025 campaign it’s fair to say a top-level victory for The Lion In Winter would be just that.

It seems a long time ago that he was favourite for the Betfred Derby, a troubling spring and a damning Dante defeat the pre-cursor to him finishing 14th at Epsom, after which O’Brien turned to France in a bid to revive his fortunes.

And do you know what? His forays across the channel have revived his fortunes, to a degree. Okay, he remains winless at three, but he was beaten less than a length in the Prix Jean Prat over seven furlongs at Deauville and then he ran a good race last time in the Prix du Moulin when beaten a short head and a neck by Sahlan and Rosallion.

He’s not the horse he looked like he might be at two and his ungainly head carriage is a little off putting when it comes to future targets, but I wonder if cheekpieces might be part of the plan whether he stays at a mile or drops back to seven furlongs for the Prix de la Foret?

O’Brien has plenty of options with him, he could even go back out in trip to 10 furlongs, but given The Lion has shown a real affinity for racing in France the Foret might well be firmly in his thoughts.

And after cheekpieces have transformed the fortunes of stablemate Scandinavia, maybe they will be part of the plan, as well.

4. If not Scandinavia, who looks Australia-bound, who’s up for the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup? Is Jan the man?

O’Brien has stayers coming out of his ears and if Scandinavia is in quarantine for the Melbourne Cup when they’re racing at Ascot on Champions Day, you can be pretty sure a Ballydoyle super sub will have been drafted in to replace him in the Long Distance Cup - especially with it being run as a Group 1 for the first time this year.

Before the weekend you might’ve thought Illinois was pencilled in for Ascot, and with good reason, but he put in a rare poor performance in the Irish St. Leger and it remains to be seen if he can bounce back this season after quite a few tough battles in defeat.

So if not Scandinavia, and not Illinois, then perhaps Jan Brueghel could be the one to go out in trip for the Champions Day marathon.

His absence from the Irish St. Leger was notable, and perhaps he is forcing his way into O’Brien’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe thinking, but with Minnie Hauk ‘on the Arc programme’ maybe a different schedule is in mind for Jan Brueghel and he might well have already become a ‘Cup horse’ if it wasn’t for beating Calandagan at Epsom.

He had to go for the King George after that, but he was made to look slow in that race and given he won the St Leger at three it won’t surprise anyone if he’s campaigned over two miles going into next year.

If Scandinavia is out of the Champions Day reckoning with his passport for Australia stamped, perhaps we’ll see Jan Brueghel over two miles before the season is out.

Indeed, the 10/1 about him for the Long Distance Cup is tempting, what with the two between himself and favourite Trawlerman in the betting, Al Riffa and Scandinavia, likely to be on their way Down Under come October 18.

5. How to get a Group 1 out of Gstaad at two? Could a swift drop back in trip to six furlongs be the answer?

Lots of O’Brien’s juveniles seem to pick themselves for the big autumn Group 1s. True Love in the Cheveley Park. Diamond Necklace and Precise for the Fillies’ Mile. Constitution River for the Dewhurst. Benvenuto Cellini for the Futurity Trophy.

But then there is the problem that is Gstaad. It might seem unfathomable to O’Brien that he has not secured a Group 1 victory with him at two already, what with his short neck defeat to Venetian Sun in the Prix Morny being followed by a head reverse to Zavateri in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the weekend.

Yet that’s where he’s at after bumping into two high-class juveniles in those narrow defeats, his overall form one of progression despite not adding any wins to his C.V post-Coventry Stakes romp.

It certainly wasn’t the seven-furlong trip that beat him in the National Stakes, but with a Group 1 win as a juvenile becoming a priority O’Brien will be trying to establish the best way forward with him in the coming weeks and that could mean a tilt at the Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes over six furlongs at Newmarket on September 27.

With those aforementioned stablemates Constitution River and Benvenuto Cellini forcing their way into the reckoning for the seven furlong and mile races, a return to sprinting might well be in the pipeline for the son of Starspangledbanner who is perhaps more of a Commonwealth Cup horse than a Guineas hopeful further down the line.

And while O’Brien has had some high-profile reverses in the Middle Park with Whistlejacket and River Tiber in recent years, he has won it with Blackbeard, Ten Sovereigns and U S Navy Flag since 2017, his winning tally seven overall, and it’s a race that could do him a good turn again if it gets a top-level win out of Gstaad in his debut campaign.

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