Our expert panel of Andrew Asquith, Ben Linfoot and Matt Brocklebank give their thoughts heading into QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot.
Which race are you most looking forward to on British Champions Day?
Ben Linfoot: The declaration of Mostahdaf in the Qipco Champion Stakes was somewhat surprising but the increasingly likely switch to the inner hurdles track must’ve tempted connections to have a go and his presence adds serious quality to an already good renewal. Add in the potential of the French challenger, Horizon Dore, the Frankie Dettori factor on the imposing King Of Steel and the reigning champion Bay Bridge, and we have a horse race, with the likes of Via Sistina and Dubai Honour not dismissed lightly either.
Andrew Asquith: For me it has to be the QEll, which looks set to be a superb clash between Paddington, Tahiyra and Nashwa, while French raider Big Rock also adds further intrigue. Paddington has beat a few of these already this season and has plenty of form in testing conditions, so it is no surprise to see him put in a short-priced favourite, especially given his connections. However, Tahiyra was very impressive when winning the Moyglare in heavy ground last season, and has looked all class this year, so she looks very interesting now taking on the boys for the first time. I was very impressed with Nashwa when winning the Falmouth, though, and I think she is particularly appealing back at a mile. The ground hopefully won’t pose too many problems and she did finish in front of Paddington in the Juddmonte, so I’m particularly excited to she how she fares.
Matt Brocklebank: It's often the Balmoral Handicap I look forward to most on Champions Day but I fancy a couple in the level-weights races this year too for a change and I do reckon Via Sistina has got what it'll take to bustle up the boys in the Champion. That silky victory over subsequent Nassau winner Al Husn in the Group 2 at Newmarket back in May came on soft ground and she has since proven that to be no flash in the pan in top-class company. The freshness angle looks another major plus for her and I certainly don't mind Oisin Murphy taking over from Jamie Spencer in the saddle despite the latter being a bit of an Ascot legend in his own right. The current 7/1 is borderline now but I reckon we might get bigger closer to the time.
Give us one horse you expect will be right at home in the likely testing conditions...
Ben Linfoot: The straight track is going to be really testing and while Paddington, Nashwa and Chaldean will all cope with the likely conditions well I think the ground could well be the catalyst for a season’s best figure from BIG ROCK. He hammered a certain Horizon Dore by five lengths the last time he encountered heavy ground and he just kept on galloping from the front end that day. A similar performance here could make him a tough nut to crack and it’s the conditions that make me think he can deliver the sort of effort required to see off an exceptionally deep field.
Andrew Asquith: MIGRATION is a classy horse on his day and he goes particularly well when the mud is flying and this has likely been a long-term plan for him after his disappointing effort in the Gordon Richards Stakes when last seen in May. Winning a race like the Balmoral from a BHA mark of 113 represents a stiff task, but he comes alive in these big-field handicaps, and his record when fresh adds further interest. David Menuisier is a trainer I have a lot of time for and Migration's winning performance in a heavy-ground Lincoln at the start of the season remains fresh in the memory.
Matt Brocklebank: Aside from the aforementioned Via Sistina, I do think the William Haggas-trained AL MUBHIR is going to absolutely love conditions on the straight course. This Frankel colt has a big, raking action and a stiff mile on this course - combined with the large field and likely strong pace - could be just what he's been crying out for all season. If he's a double-figure price I reckon I may struggle to resist backing him.
What is Frankie Dettori's best chance of a final Champions Day winner?
Ben Linfoot: It’s hard to argue with the bookies assessment of this question with Kinross a clear favourite in the British Champions Sprint, but I think it’s a deeper race than last year and he might be vulnerable to a six-furlong specialist so I wouldn’t be too surprised if he was turned over. With that in mind it’s KING OF STEEL for me, a horse who has threatened to win a big Group 1 all season. He has Ascot form, he’ll handle the ground and in a tactical race a Dettori special could be just what the doctor ordered as he bids to become the second son of Wootton Bassett to land this prize after Almanzor.
Andrew Asquith: As you would expect Frankie Dettori has a very good book of rides and it is Kinross in the Champions Sprint who the bookies feel is his best chance. I can see that, as Kinross will have no problem with the ground and he is the defending champion after all. However, I have long been a fan of KING OF STEEL and I am hoping this will be the day he lands his first Group 1. King of Steel is a giant of a horse who has form in testing conditions and I think a mile and a quarter on this sort of ground will be tailormade for this strong-travelling colt, while he was also particularly impressive when winning at the Royal meeting earlier in the year.
Matt Brocklebank: You couldn't rule many of them out and I suppose the intriguing one is Guineas winner Chaldean who has had quite a long time off since his flop in France at the start of July. He's another Frankel who loves a bit of cut in the ground and trainer Andrew Balding sounds pretty confident he's got him back to something like his peak, on homework at least anyway. He's a fascinating runner, for all that KINROSS is no doubt Frankie's strongest chance on form.
What's the most interesting 'dark horse' punters should have on their radar?
Ben Linfoot: DUBAI HONOUR goes well fresh, he likes soft ground and he has form in this race having been second to Sealiway two years ago, so he is worth considering each-way in the Champion Stakes at around 25/1. He didn’t even run badly in a failed cheekpieces experiment on livelier ground than ideal in this race last year, and while he was disappointing in the Coral-Eclipse he’s never really been a midsummer horse and I expect he’ll be much more like his old self at this time of year after a good break.
Andrew Asquith: ROHAAN was unlucky not to finish closer to Kinross in the Champions Sprint 12 months ago - he would have likely finished a good second at worst on a level playing field, doing easily the best of those drawn low and coming home first in the unfavoured group. He goes particularly well over this course and distance - a four-time winner - and also has form in testing conditions. Rohaan got back on track in a course and distance handicap earlier this month and he looks a little big in the betting at around 12/1 in a race I think is more open than the betting suggests.
Matt Brocklebank: I'm with Andy and reckon ROHAAN is over-priced as an each-way alternative to Kinross in the Sprint. Elsewhere, unfortunately Jessie Harrington's Trevaunce wasn't declared for the Fillies & Mares Stakes but I still think it could be a race that throws up an odd result. I've got a lot of time for Free Wind and Frankie seemed to have this race in mind for her around halfway in the Arc but I could look towards Henry De Bromhead's Term Of Endearment for a spot of value. She looks a real fan of bad ground and is likely to have her conditions even if they switch to the inner track. Tom Marquand looks a significant booking for her. The unexposed Sweet Memories could also have a say back on soft ground in the first-time cheekpieces.
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