Nic Doggett, David Ord and John Ingles thrash out the weekend's feature races and provide their views on the action from Haydock, Ascot and Punchestown.
How do you see the Betfair Chase at this stage?
David Ord: It all depends on the ground. It seems from a distance at least that the track took the 16mm of rain on Tuesday well, with the surface described as good to soft, soft in places.
There’s more forecast on Saturday morning too, up to 6mm. If it gets deep, then the questions will be asked of Grey Dawning again for all he gave it a wonderful go last year only to be run down late by Royale Pagaille.
Heavy ground and that rival’s hat-trick bid could be well and truly on, but that surface will also suit Haiti Coleurs who is going from strength to strength. He’s blown the cobwebs away with a win over hurdles at Newbury and is a strong-staying, slick-jumping, powerful, front-runner. That’s what you want around here.
But I think it boils down to the fact Grey Dawning is the best horse in the race. This is his Grade One for the season and with the yard flying I think he’ll get the job done this time.
Nic Doggett: ‘Grey Dawning is the best horse in the race’
He is, Dave, although not by much according to Timeform who have him just 2 lb clear of Royale Pagaille on the figures, with a further 8 lb back to Haiti Coleurs for all the progressive stayer does have a ‘small p’ attached to his rating which means he is expected to improve.
I think tactics will be key; will Harry Skelton ask Grey Dawning to dominate on his reappearance – tactics that worked best for him last season - in a race that also features frontrunners Haiti Couleurs and Handstands? And if so, would that be asking too much?
I’d normally be keen on Royale Pagaille completing his hat-trick as he will have been primed for this and the nature of this stamina sapping race is perfect; my only reservation is stable form. Venetia Williams had eight winners from 33 runners last November, and 17 from 51 in the same month the year before. So far this November she is 1/14 which must be a worry.
John Ingles: I’d agree with Dave about the ground being important as to whether last year's result is replicated or not.
As things stand, it doesn’t look like being as testing as last year, which would favour Grey Dawning turning the tables on Royale Pagaille who is rising twelve now after all. But Grey Dawning is yet to prove himself a top-class chaser in the mould of some winners of this race over the years, and I’d be happy to take him on with Haiti Couleurs who isn’t there yet either but is very much going the right way.
As Dave says, he looks tailor-made for the demands of Haydock, and while he handles heavy ground, there’s nothing in his record to suggest he actually needs it that testing.
Who’s the best bet on the card at Ascot?
David Ord: I thought Brookie was half interesting in the Castello Banfi Hurst Park Handicap Chase at Ascot.
He kept good company in the spring after winning a Doncaster handicap from a mark of 130, including chasing home Kalif Du Berlais in a Grade One at Aintree. He returned in a Cheltenham handicap last month and shaped with plenty of promise in finishing third behind the reopposing Calico.
He’s seven pounds better off with that rival for seven lengths beating and fared best of those held up in the race. A strong pace is likely in this, and I think he’s handicapped to have his say with that run under his belt.
Nic Doggett: Cartmel has rarely been the go-to course for identifying strong handicaps, which sometimes undersells the competitive nature of racing at the idiosyncratic Lake District venue.
However, division one of the Traffic Management Handicap Hurdle from May is worth paying attention to, as the second and third have won since being firmly put in their place by the Warren Greatrex-trained mare Shantwopointfive.
Her previous efforts in the spring behind Greyval are equally solid, and it’s no surprise to see her back over hurdles having jumped poorly when pulled up on her chasing bow at Kempton earlier this month.
A former point winner with plenty of stamina in her bloodlines (dam from the family of Best Mate), she looks a big price as she steps up in trip to three miles for the first time.
John Ingles: I’m looking forward to seeing Il Est Francais, now back with former trainer Tom George, in the 1965 Chase. He’d have been interesting on level terms, but the fact that all his rivals are having to give weight to a King George runner-up suggests they have plenty on their plate.
His jumping will be a real asset around here, as he’s shown before at Kempton, and he’s got a great record fresh, winning first time out at Auteuil for the last three seasons.
What are you expecting from the Morgiana?
David Ord: It’s a shame we don’t get to find out if Anzadam is a potential Champion Hurdle candidate, but this wouldn’t have been a gimmie due to the presence of Irancy and now Lossiemouth is set to run here rather than in the following week’s Hatton’s Grace, it all looks a bit tricky.
Irancy’s one blowout last term came in the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme at Cheltenham, but he was good at Fairyhouse next time and proved more than capable of picking up the pieces when Kopek Des Bordes flopped in the Grade One novice at Punchestown.
With Lossiemouth taking on the boys for the first time since falling in the Irish Champion Hurdle, we should get a good idea of how Irancy compares and where he – and the likes of Anzadam – sit in the Closutton pecking order.
Nic Doggett: It’s odd to think that Irancy is actually a year older than stablemate Lossiemouth when you consider what the mare has achieved (or not achieved if you’re the type – like me – who wanted her to run in the Champion Hurdle).
The betting should tell the story in all of these small field clashes that inevitably see the leading lights of the yard butt heads. Time and time again we’ve seen the market rather than the form book give us the biggest clues and I’d expect that to be the case again this season.
With the ground in her favour and in receipt of 7 lb, it would need to be a very rusty run for Lossiemouth not to prevail and the market would surely show if that was expected.
John Ingles: All things being equal, this looks a straightforward task for Lossiemouth, though Willie Mullins has had some short-priced favourites turned over in this, including State Man last year and Faugheen on two occasions a bit further back.
The fact she’s getting weight from three inferior rivals won’t tell us much, but hopefully it will be a smooth start to a campaign leading towards the Champion Hurdle.
Same question for the John Durkan?
David Ord: Plenty. Next!
Look, it’s the starting point for another bunch of Mullins’ big guns. Fact To File won it last year and probably will again, Gaelic Warrior will keep him honest if starting this campaign as he ended the last, while Fastorslow is bang in it if fit and firing after missing a year.
It speaks volumes that the best horse in the race, Inothewayurthinkin, is a 7/1 chance despite Gavin Cromwell insisting he’s more forward than he was for the race last season.
A Grade One but one in which most of those in it have an eye on the future. They will with Fact To File as well but, as the market suggests, he’s the most obvious winner.
Nic Doggett: I think Dave has summed that up pretty well, and I agree that Fact To File ‘probably will [win] again’, but I’m interested to see how Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson gets on if returning to action here.
He’s got an excellent record fresh, has always had the size and scope to improve significantly over fences on what he achieved over hurdles, and I can see him giving it a good go from the front as that style seems to suit him best. He's capable of emphasizing any weaknesses in match fitness for some of the bigger names if fully tuned up himself.
John Ingles: You’d think one or two of these might have fancied their chances in the Betfair Chase instead but, yes, as already implied, this is just a starting point for plenty of them.
Heart Wood has had the recent run (replay below) that the Mullins team all lack, this is his sort of trip, and he chased home Fact To File in the Ryanair, so he could make a bolder showing than the ratings suggest.
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