Expert Panel: Saturday racing preview including Ayr Gold Cup tips

Ain’t Nobody is remarkably 13lb ‘well-in’ for the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup. How do you oppose a horse like that?

Ben Linfoot: Well, he’s 13lb well-in on his Nunthorpe form but he’s got nothing in hand on his Haydock Sprint Cup form, for all that he was one of those who was drawn out of the equation that day. If he runs to his York numbers he’ll be winning this but on his six-furlong form this season he’s a 25/1 chance so at single-figure prices he’s an easy one for me to draw a line through. If he goes and wins, fair enough, but I’d rather take a chance on something at a bigger price each-way in a race of this nature.

Tony McFadden: Ain't Nobody's improved performance in the Nunthorpe came over a sharp five furlongs at York so there has to be some doubt about whether he'll prove as effective over six furlongs on a stiffer track on testing ground, especially as he has yet to win from seven starts at this trip. Admittedly, he has been set some tough tasks, including last time when he was poorly drawn in the Sprint Cup, but he has a question to answer over six furlongs.

Matt Brocklebank: He's an unexposed three-year-old who is miles ahead of the handicapper but that assessment (now officially rated 112) is based on his fine run when second to Asfoora in the Nunthorpe at York over five furlongs on quick ground, so can it really be considered wholly relevant in an Ayr Gold Cup on a very different track and slower ground? I'm not totally convinced and I think something that might have been a little overlooked is that he was wearing cheekpieces for the first time at York and they didn't seem to have the same effect in the Betfair Sprint Cup last time out. The headgear is off this weekend so this horse still has a few questions to answer in my view despite looking a leading contender in theory.

Do you have any pearls of wisdom regarding the draw for Saturday’s Gold Cup?

Ben Linfoot: I would always be an advocate of doing your homework regarding early pace and ground and draw as I’m a firm believer in that if you can work out what will happen in the first two furlongs it will help unlock what might happen in the last two. Having said that I’d have it as merely part of the process rather than weighting it as a defining factor when it comes to striking a bet. Look at the Portland last week - the early pace looked stands’ side on paper but the far side group went quicker and Rosario, drawn in 16, ran his best race for ages ploughing a lone furrow on the stands’ side only to be undone by how the race developed. Pre-race he looked in the right spot, but jockeys do different things, trainers try different tactics, so I would just focus on identifying which horse can get from the stalls to the winning line the quickest, for all that the draw can play a part in that.

Tony McFadden: As ever, the Bronze and Silver Cups could prove informative. Leaving the draw aside, it looks like there's plenty of rain around at Ayr over the next couple of days. Purosangue has a good record on testing ground and wasn't beaten far over six and a half furlongs last time, so he heads my shortlist.

Matt Brocklebank: It isn't an exact science no matter what anybody tells you, and finding the best-handicapped horses should really trump in-depth draw study any day of the week, but if pressed I'd probably prefer not to take too short a price about horses drawn slap-bang in the middle, unless there are three or four proper pace angles in that part of the track, of course. A rail can so often prove to be helpful late on in these sprint handicaps, especially when there's rain around, so one from each side would be my admittedly cop-out answer!

Andrew Balding’s Feilden Stakes winner Almeric makes his return to action in the Doonside Cup on the same Ayr card – is he a horse to take on?

Ben Linfoot: I’m not desperate to take this horse on by any means. He looked a very useful prospect in the spring when winning a Feilden Stakes that has worked out very well in good style and that was evidence that he goes well fresh. A setback ruled him out of the French Derby and other summer assignments but Balding has had this pencilled in for his comeback for ages after winning this race with fellow three-year-olds Scottish (in 2015) and Encapsulation (2019). He might just be too good for these.

Tony McFadden: Not in my book. Of course, sharpness could be an issue on his first start since the Craven meeting in April, and Almeric is obviously met with a setback somewhere along the way, but he looked like a fine prospect in the Feilden and that form has been boosted by the runner-up, King of Cities, going on to win the Strensall Stakes. The slightly longer trip should also be in his favour, assuming he's tuned up, and he's proven on testing ground.

Matt Brocklebank: Having beaten recent Strensall winner King Of Cities that day in the Feilden, the pair well clear of the third, Almeric is obviously very talented but he must have had some sort of setback and might be one to oppose given the lack of match-practice. It could be a tactical affair too so I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the outsiders emerged on top.

How do you weigh up Newbury’s Mill Reef Stakes, the market being headed by the supplemented Into The Sky?

Ben Linfoot: Never mind the race how do you weigh up this horse?! It’s fair to say even Jim Boyle was surprised by the manner of his debut victory at Newbury where he pulverised his opposition by seven-and-a-half lengths in a good time at odds of 80/1. Now half-owned by Doreen Tabor and supplemented for the Mill Reef, all eyes are on him as he bids to do the same again to much better opposition at the same track over half-a-furlong shorter. I’ve absolutely no idea what to expect and I suspect I won’t be going anywhere near the race for a bet. Looks unmissable viewing, though.

Tony McFadden: No two-year-old this season has earned a higher Timeform rating on debut than Into The Sky and he's a fascinating contender. He narrowly heads Timeform's ratings for the Mill Reef, but, at the likely prices, I'd rather side with Rock On Thunder who ran a cracker when runner-up in the Gimcrack last time. He has four runs under his belt and can perhaps put that experience to good use.

Matt Brocklebank: There was an element of 'freakish' about Into The Sky's debut win over a similar trip here last month which might make punters want to see it again before it can be fully believed, but it was obviously hard not to be impressed. His sire Starman has made a brilliant start and this looks an exciting colt so it's quite refreshing to see a trainer like Jim Boyle with such ammunition for a Saturday Group race. Let's hope the horse lives up to the hype and produces something similar, although the cynic in me feels he'll do well to improve from the first run and might just recoil a fraction if anything.

Give us another name to note anywhere in the world this weekend…

Ben Linfoot: I think Coming Attraction will take a bit of beating in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at Ayr (3.00) over six furlongs. Roger Varian’s filly beat a couple of subsequent winners with ease at Chelmsford in June and after a 10-week break she returned at Chester with a comfortable success in a conditions race. That should’ve sharpened her up suitably for this assignment and with Varian having a good strike-rate with his Ayr raiders in September this Group 1 Cheveley Park entry looks a very likely type indeed.

Tony McFadden: Almosh'her perhaps has something to prove now having finished down the field in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes and Sky Bet Ebor, but those are two of the most competitive handicaps run all season. He was far too keen on his return from nine weeks off in the Ebor, but that run should have taken some of the freshness out of him and he will hopefully settle better down markedly in trip in the mile-and-a-quarter handicap at Newbury. The form of his win in a mile-and-a-half handicap at York's Dante meeting has worked out really well and suggests he's still on a good mark.

Matt Brocklebank: It's not on the ITV schedule but, sticking with Newbury, I'm looking forward to seeing Veritable make his debut in the seven-furlong novice event just after the Mill Reef. A son of Dubawi out of 2019 Falmouth winner Veracious, this colt has Group 1 potential coursing through his veins and it's the right time of year for John and Thady Gosden to be introducing some of their better long-term prospects. He's not the only interesting newcomer in the line-up too so we should learn plenty and it's very much a race to watch with the future in mind.

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