Ebor Festival tips: Who are the horses to follow at York on Wednesday

Do you see the Juddmonte International as a shootout between the one-two from Sandown – Delacroix and Ombudsman?

Nic Doggett: I think that simplified view is insulting to See The Fire. There’s a chance that she’s just not up to this level, but her form on flat tracks is clearly superior to the efforts that she has produced at more undulating/testing venues. York is flat, quick and will play more to her strengths than perhaps the big two. She’s the each-way bet at this stage with three places on offer. I’m not a Japanese form expert, but any horse that beats Calandagan has to be respected, for all I’d have some question marks over this trip on the Knavesmire.

Ian Ogg: Absolutely not. Danon Decile brings high class international form to the table and has a stronger profile than compatriot Durezza who finished a respectable fifth last year. Throw in the potential of the unbeaten Daryz and the Prince Of Wales's Stakes placed pair - Anmaat and See The Fire - and this is a fair way from being a one-dimensional match.

Matt Brocklebank: I'm not convinced we can be quite that dogmatic as there are a few notable formlines to consider along with the obvious and I've been struck with just how rock-solid the Japanese horse - Danon Decile - has been in the antepost market. With experience up to 1m7f, he looks more of a stayer to me but you can't knock his defeat of Calandagan in the Sheema Classic (1m4f) at Meydan and, although not seen since then, he's won top races back home when fresh from a break in the past too. On top of that one, it's interesting to see Godolphin have secured the services of an Andre Fabre-trained pace-maker to try and help out Ombudsman as the general feeling is he was in front early enough in the Eclipse. I think it's going to be one hell of a race but definitely wouldn't be considering it merely a match/rematch between the chief market principals.

Is there an argument to take on Lambourn in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur?

Nic Doggett: It’s not been a bomb-proof race for favourites in recent times, with Cross Counter (6/4 in 2018), Mogul (9/4 in 2020), High Definition (7/2 in 2021) and Gregory (8/11 in 2023) all turned over. In fairness, however, none of those were Derby winners (or of that ilk), and there’s probably just an undercurrent of Lambourn-doubting because he isn’t flashy and he doesn’t seem to do much particularly quickly. Normally that would worry me at York, but I think the race will be run to suit him - whether he makes the running or not - and his class should carry him through desite his small penalty.

Ian Ogg: Carrying a penalty in a race that is a prep for the autumn targets on ground, as Matt says below, that could be much quicker than he's encountered before leads one to err on the side of caution. Having said that, Los Angeles won - albeit narrowly - under a penalty for the same connections last year from a stablemate and it could be a similar outcome with the potential rivals looking a little ho-hum in the context of turning over a dual Derby winner.

Matt Brocklebank: Quick ground on the Knavesmire is going to force Ryan Moore's hand from a tactical point of view as he won't want to be getting caught for a turn of foot with a couple of furlongs to travel. This might well be the fastest surface Lambourn has raced on in his life and while Carmers' Royal Ascot win came over a mile and three-quarters in the Queen's Vase, he looked right at home on good to firm ground and might be the one able to go toe-to-toe with the dual Derby winner.

Give us a two-year-old on the radar for Wednesday…

Nic Doggett: Handicapping two-year-olds that are progressing at different speeds must be a thankless job, especially when they win in bloodless fashion in small-field races, but a mark of 87 for Utmost Respect could prove on the lenient side. Richard Fahey has done well in the concluding nursery on Wednesday, having won it in 2012, 2015, 2016 and then last year. Two of those were making their handicap debuts and connections may have had this race in mind for the Invincible Spirit colt since his unlucky second to Ballistic Missile (who has gone close off 85 since) here on debut. Subsequently seventh in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, Utmost Respect won easily at Hamilton last time and looks sure to be suited by this extra furlong, both on run style and breeding.

Ian Ogg: Richard Fahey has a decent record in the Sky Bet Nursery and has two entered in Golden Palace and Utmost Respect, both of whom have course form to their name. The latter was a notable eyecatcher on debut behind Ballistic Missile (close second in a nursery off 85 recently), ran well in seventh in the Windsor Castle (beaten under 4 lengths) before readily winning his maiden at a short price. There's surely a good deal more to come especially over this trip of six furlongs and I've no complaints about his mark.

Matt Brocklebank: You've got to have a lot of respect for whatever Aidan O'Brien runs in the Acomb Stakes after last year and Italy is a fascinating one among his entries, but I'm keen to flag up Gewan. Andrew Balding's colt wasn't particularly well fancied (9/1) ahead of his debut at Newbury last month and showed clear signs of greenness from the outset but he eventually stayed on to won well from Charlie Appleby's Ruler Of Time and the Richard Hannon-trained Lost Signal (winner since). His price tag went down at the spring breeze-ups but he really could be anything at this stage and I'll be at least keeping an eye on how he handles the unique York preliminaries.

And which handicapper takes your eye at this early stage?

Nic Doggett: Recent history has shown that you need to be a near Group-level horse in order to win the sprint handicap that gets the Ebor meeting underway – indeed the last two have gone to previous/subsequent Group 2 winners – and I think the three-year-old The Man is one of just a few in the race who has that potential. Richard Spencer has done extremely well in the big heritage handicaps this season, including a 1-4-5 in the Stewards’ Cup led home by Two Tribes who came into that race on the back of winning the International Handicap, and The Man was also a winner on his most recent start. That win came over five furlongs at York in May on the back of wind/gelding surgery over the winter, and an 8 lb rise may still underestimate this son of Mehmas. He hit the line strongly that day, suggesting the extra half-furlong here won’t be a worry, and he looks sure to get a good tow into the race.

Ian Ogg: See above! Additionally, I think there's more to come from Air Force One who holds an entry for the opening Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap. He showed promise for David O'Meara before joining Paddy Twomey and his maiden win is an interesting piece of form with the placed horses currently rated 93 and 86. Air Force One is up to 84 after winning over C&D on his second start for Geoff Oldroyd and we know this meeting is high on the agenda for owners Bond Thoroughbred Limited; there's a lot to like.

Matt Brocklebank: William Haggas has given Sky Bet Ebor entry Santorini Star the option of the two-mile Sky Bet Stayers Handicap on day one as well, presumably thinking she might struggle to make the cut for the big one next Saturday. She's a filly to keep on side wherever she runs in my view following an eyecatching effort in an Irish Group 3 at Fairyhouse last month. She looked highly progressive on fast ground earlier in the year and there might still be a bit of room to manoeuvre from her mark of 97.

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