Guide to the EBF & TBA Mares' Finale at Newbury

Tara View

Perfect record over hurdles, beating a decent yardstick on her handicap debut last time, and should have the scope to cope with an 8lb rise in the weights. Yard won this prize in 2012 and this race has always been the target.

Copper Kay

Smart bumper performer who hasn't lived up to expectations over obstacles for all that the form of her two defeats at this venue have been well advertised since. May have gained confidence from converting a penalty kick last time and easy to see her going well.

Hitherjacques Lady

Yard's runners in this race always command respect and this five-year-old has progressed well since finishing two lengths adrift of Tara View on her hurdling debut. Two wins came on heavy so has quicker ground to contend with but no reason to believe she won't be as effective.

Pearl Royale

Switch to handicapping worked the oracle as she opened her account with a facile 50 length success. Hard to know what to make of that and handicapper dished out a 15lb rise but she could hardly have won more easily and her yard's in great form.

Same Circus

Behind the re-opposing Snow Leopardess at Doncaster in May but has arguably shown improved form since, chasing home short-priced Cheltenham Festival runner Impulsive Star before winning by 13 lengths. This is tougher again and she probably needs to pull out a good bit more to follow up.

Wizard's Sliabh

Yard has a fine record with mares and this one was only half a length behind Tara View at Ludlow in December (Hitherjacques Lady third) when racing off levels. Clear claims on that form and could find improvement for cheekpieces after hanging at Warwick last time (up 10lbs for that second) but for which she would have finished closer.

Theatre Territory

Stable has won four of the last 10 renewals but this winning pointer hasn't gone on as might have been hoped for under Rules. Still hasn't had that much racing and switch to handicap company on a decent surface could easily bring about marked improvement but others hold more obvious claims.

It's Jennifer

French raider who will be encountering the fastest surface that she's raced on. Interesting that connections have deemed her worthy of travelling for this prize but likely to be among the outsiders.

Cajun Fiddle

Stablemate of Tara View and looks the stable's second string. Latest third looks solid with the winner running well at the Cheltenham Festival and runner-up winning at Ludlow this week. Will be more competitive back in handicap company and can be given an outside chance.

Miss Tongabezi

Taken some time to get the hang of things but has gone from strength to strength this season and hard to know where her improvement will end. Racing from a 20lb higher mark than for her first success and this is tougher but dangerous to underestimate.

Snow Leopardess

Consistent performer who looks fairly treated for this switch to handicap company. Failed to justify favouritism against the boys last time out but may benefit from return to racing against her own sex and one of the more obvious contenders.

Ruby Yeats

Form ties in with Cajun Fiddle on a line through Verdana Blue and she looks the better treated of the pair on that tenuous evidence. Latest run was just her second for this yard and she promises to be suited by this step up in trip but her stable has been struggling for winners.

Grand Turina

Sent off at 11/1 on her hurdling debut (unseated at first) in a race won by Theatre Territory but went on to finish second to Supreme third River Wylde before winning at Warwick (having previously been withdrawn at the start at Huntingdon when playing up). That wasn't much of a race and possible to argue handicapper hasn't taken any chances on latest form but like many of these she's open to plenty of improvement.

Lamanver Odyssey

Won her bumper for another yard last season and has progressed steadily over hurdles for current connections, running a useful stablemate of Grand Turina close last time with the pair clear. There should be more to come but probably needs to take decent step forwards to be competitive.

River Arrow

Not a huge amount of promise in her first four starts (two for this yard) but much improved at Southwell despite racing keenly. May be capable of better yet now that the penny has dropped but she can race keenly and this is significantly tougher.

Sister Sibyl

Predominantly Flat yard does well with their jumpers and any market support would look significant. Well beaten in a strong Listed bumper last season but has won three times and been beaten a nose to a stablemate of Hitherjacques Lady in the other. Stoutly bred which suggests this first run beyond two miles could see her improve and looks a leading player for all that the form of her races could have worked out better.

Atlanta Ablaze

Need to excuse a disappointing handicap debut at Chepstow but that track doesn't suit every horse and she wasn't disgraced in a Listed race prior to that. Maiden win on good-to-firm suggests she'll be at home on this drying ground but form leaves her with something to find.

Key statistics from the last 10 renewals

- Six year olds have won six renewals and five year olds three with one seven-year-old successful.

- Winners have carried between 10-4 and 11-3 with one successful from out of the handicap.

- Winners have been rated between 111 and 130 with eight 120+.

- Winners have been priced between 10/3 and 25/1 with six returned in single figures.

- Four favourites have been successful.

- All winners had finished in the first four on their preceding start with five successful.

- Nine winners had their previous start between 16th February and 8th March.

- Only one winner had had more than six starts over hurdles.

- All winners had won at least once over hurdles.

- Four winners were making their handicap debuts, six winners had been placed or better in a handicap.

- Seven winners had won over at least two miles three furlongs.

Verdict

A hugely competitive and open renewal of this valuable prize. 

Top-weight may just find out Tara View whose form ties in with leading contenders Wizard Sliabh and Hitherjacques Lady.

The latter is thriving and should go close to providing Oliver Sherwood with another victory in this race but she has done her winning on heavier ground and the faster conditions and step up in trip could see Sister Sibyl step up markedly on her form thus far. She was behind a couple of these in a Listed bumper at Sandown but has done well since. 

Theatre Territory  is another potential improver with a few more risks attached but preference is for Hughie Morrison's runner who can make the most of the weight that she receives.