Free betting tips: Donn McClean on the Irish 1000 Guineas
Donn McClean is taking on those at the head of the market with a 10/1 chance in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Check out his preview.
Donn's best bet:
4.10 Curragh
It makes sense that Happily has been put in as favourite for a fascinating Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh this afternoon.
Aidan O’Brien’s filly was a top class juvenile last season. She finished second in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes and she won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, before she went to France and beat the colts in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly on Arc de Triomphe day.
The form of that race is top class, with runner-up Olmedo winning the French 2000 Guineas two weeks ago, and third-placed Masar winning the Craven Stakes by nine lengths and finishing third in the 2000 Guineas.
Happily herself was sent off as favourite for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, where she ran well in finishing third, just over two lengths behind the winner Billesdon Brook. She stayed on well through the final 200 yards that day, so the stiffer test that The Curragh presents is probably a positive today. And, unsurprisingly, Ryan Moore has chosen to ride her in front of Clemmie and her two other stable companions. A full-sister to dual Guineas winner Gleneagles and to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Marvellous, she is a deserving favourite.
But she is short, and this is a deep race, probably deeper than is suggested by the fact that the favourite is no bigger than 6/4 or a 13/8.
Soliloquy is available at four times Happily’s odds, for example, and the Godolphin filly finished just one length behind her at Newmarket. She was keen enough through the early stages of the race too, and she raced towards the near side, away from where the race unfolded, which didn’t appear to be an advantage on the day.
Charlie Appleby’s filly made just about all the running when she won the Nell Gwyn Stakes on her debut this season. That was over seven furlongs and this will be tougher, a stiff mile and the probability of competition for the early lead, but a return to more aggressive tactics could see her step forward from her Guineas run.
We have not seen Clemmie this season yet, but she was another top class juvenile. A full-sister to dual Guineas winner Churchill, she stepped through the grades last season, winning a Group 3 race and a Group 2 race before landing the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in September impressively.
That was her most recent run, a slight hold up meant that she had to miss the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, and it will be very interesting to see how she goes today. But Ryan Moore prefers Happily, and it is probable that Clemmie will improve for today’s run.
The Derrinstown Stud 1000 Guineas Trial run at Leopardstown two weeks ago could hold a key to today’s race. Chiara Luna has been well backed already this morning, and it is easy to see why. Dermot Weld’s filly did not have a lot of luck in-running through that race.
Well back in the field from early, the Moyglare Stud filly travelled well into the home straight, but Declan McDonogh had to sit and wait for an opening, he couldn’t really go for her until 200 yards out. When he did, she picked up well, finishing off her race best of all to take fourth place.
That was her seasonal debut and it was just her second race ever, so she has lots of scope for progression. By War Front out of Moyglare’s Ribblesdale Stakes winner, the Street Cry mare Princess Highway, she should appreciate today’s good fast conditions and, while she can probably step up in trip in time, she could run a big race today.
The value of today’s race, however, could lie with the Derrinstown Trial winner Who’s Steph.
It may be that, because there was plenty of focus on what was going on in behind, the quality of the performance that Ger Lyons’ filly put up in winning the Leopardstown race has gone a little under the radar.
She was slowly away, but Colin Keane quickly moved her up and had her in a nice position just behind the leader Ballet Shoes before they had reached the end of the first furlong. She travelled well up on the leader’s shoulder until they reached the home straight, and she picked up nicely when her rider asked her to. She hit the front on the run to the furlong marker and she kept on strongly all the way to the line. She raced willingly in front, it never really looked like she was going to be caught, and she was actually eased down a little close home in winning by a cosy length.
Alghabrah ran on well to take third place, and Chiara Luna finished well to grab fourth, but the winner may have won with a little in hand.
Who’s Steph won her maiden last year at Naas on easy ground and she won the Ballylinch Stud 1000 Guineas Trial on her debut this season on heavy ground, so it was good that she was able to operate as effectively as she did on the better ground that she encountered at Leopardstown last time.
She is probably going to have to improve again if she is going to win an Irish Guineas, but that was just her fourth ever run. She has plenty of scope to progress further.
By Zoffany, there is stamina and speed in her pedigree, she gets a mile well, and it is significant that she has been supplemented to today’s race. Ger Lyons’ horses continue to run well and she will have champion jockey Colin Keane for company. She is nicely drawn in stall three, her prominent style of racing is well suited to The Curragh, and she could out-run odds of around 10/1.
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