Donn McClean Punchestown Festival day three tips

Recommended bets: Punchestown day three

1pt win Sutton Place in 5.30 Punchestown at 5/1

Sizing John’s victory in the Punchestown Gold Cup yesterday was as enthralling as it was impressive, as the champion staying chaser proved that he had hard-rock courage as well as silk-smooth class.

But the narrow margin of his victory provided further evidence of how difficult it is to win a staying contest at the Cheltenham Festival, then come on and win again at Punchestown.

We saw the vagaries of a tough Cheltenham race in action too in the three-mile novices’ hurdle yesterday.

Presenting Percy under-performed, Monalee under-performed. Penhill probably ran his race, but he just couldn’t catch Champagne Classic, who obviously stepped up on his Cheltenham handicap win to land yesterday’s Grade 1 contest.

It may or it may not be significant that Champagne Classic ran over two and a half miles at Cheltenham, whereas his three main adversaries yesterday ran over three.

You just don’t know how much Cheltenham takes out of them until they race again.

We are faced with a similar quandary in the Ladbrokes Champion Stayers’ Hurdle today. Nichols Canyon is the correct favourite for the race, he was great at Cheltenham, racing for the first time over three miles away from Percy Warner Park in Nashville. But he needed every ounce of his energy and every sinew of Ruby Walsh’s guile to get home in the Stayers’ Hurdle. He had to have had a hard race.

Willie Mullins’ horse is tough, of course, but no Stayers’ Hurdle winner has followed up at Punchestown in the last decade. Indeed, only one horse who ran in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in the last 10 years – Blazing Bailey, 2008 – has followed up at Punchestown.

So, not only is that a potential negative for Nichols Canyon, it is also a potential negative for Lil Rockerfeller, Unowhatimeanharry, Snow Falcon, Clondaw Warrior and Shaneshill. And there is legitimate rationale behind the statistic: hard race in a staying contest at Cheltenham, difficult to bounce back at Punchestown.

It is not that a Stayers’ Hurdle horse cannot win today, it is just that the Stayers’ Hurdle horses occupy three of the first four places in the market, and the value may lie in looking beyond them.

Of the Stayers’ Hurdle horses, Shaneshill may be the most interesting at this morning’s prices. Willie Mullins’ horse ran poorly at Cheltenham, and that is obviously not a positive, but that just wasn’t his true running, and the fact that he was pulled up before the final flight means that he was not subjected to an overly hard race.

Representing the same Wylie/Mullins axis as Nichols Canyon represents, Shaneshill has a superb record at the Punchestown Festival. He won the Champion Bumper in 2014, he finished third behind Killultagh Vic and Thistlecrack in the Grade 1 three-mile novices’ hurdle in 2015, and he fell at the final flight in this race last year when he was mounting a challenge.  They are his only three runs at Punchestown to date, and he could out-run big odds today.

Last year’s winner One Track Mind is also interesting, back at the scene of his career-high. However, he hasn’t run over hurdles since, the chasing career on which he embarked did not go fluently and, while Warren Greatrex named this race as his target again a little while ago, this is a much better race than last year’s renewal was.

Sutton Place is probably the most fascinating contender in today’s race, and best odds of 5/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) about him look fair. JP McManus’ horse took the unusual step of running in a maiden hurdle last season – in which he finished a running-on third at 50/1 – before going back and winning his bumper, and he hasn’t been beaten since.

He rounded off last season by landing the Grade 2 two-mile novices’ hurdle at Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting, and he has resumed his progress this term. He did not start off this season until January, when he was impressive in winning the Grade 3 Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas, beating subsequent Coral Cup winner and Liverpool Hurdle runner-up Supasundae by over seven lengths. 

He stepped forward from that last time when, stepped up to two miles and five furlongs, he landed a Grade 2 contest at Navan, when he again had Supasundae almost seven lengths behind him in fourth.

The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding is stepping up to three miles today for the first time, but he stayed the two-mile-five-furlong trip well last time at Navan on soft ground. That was his first foray beyond two miles, and he shaped as if he would get further. Also, there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree, he is a staying chaser in the making.

The greater imponderable is that he is stepping up significantly in class today. This is a proper Grade 1 staying hurdle with just about all the top staying hurdlers primed and all set. We don’t know yet if the Mahler gelding is up to this class, but he has always been highly-regarded by connections, and it is significant that they are allowing him take his chance here, in the final embers of the season, when the owner already has the well-fancied Unowhatimeanharry in the race.  

Also, Sutton Place is only six, and he has raced just five times over hurdles in his life, so he still has lots of scope for progression.  He could prove today that he belongs in this class.

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Posted at 1020 BST on 27/04/17.