Donn McClean: Go with the Flos | Grand National day two tips
Donn McClean surveys the Irish challenge on day two of the Grand National meeting at Aintree and he fancies Balko Des Flos to get the better of Min.
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The two Irish horses dominate the betting for the Grade 1 Melling Chase, and it is a fascinating clash: Min the Champion Chase runner-up stepping up in distance, Balko Des Flos the Ryanair Chase winner, competing at a distance over which he is proven.
Min actually has raced over two and a half miles, Willie Mullins’ horse won easily on the only occasion on which he has raced over the distance, but that was in an uncompetitive three-runner affair at Gowran Park last November on his first run back after almost a year on the sidelines, for which he was sent off at 1/9.
There is no doubting Min’s talent. A top class novice hurdler two seasons ago, he was unbeaten in two runs during a truncated novice chasing campaign last term, and he has stepped forward again this season. He ran out an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Coral Dublin Chase at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival in February, and he gave best only to Altior in the Champion Chase.
Susannah Ricci’s horse looked a likely winner too at Cheltenham as he travelled well around the home turn for Paul Townend and, while he had no answer to Altior’s finishing surge, he still finished 11 lengths clear of the next best.
There is every chance that he will stay too. He is from the family of staying chaser Stormez, who won twice over three and a half miles, and he doesn’t race over two miles as if that is his limit.
That said, he probably shouldn’t be as far ahead of Balko Des Flos in the market as he is.
Henry de Bromhead’s horse may have been under-rated by the market. Last year’s Galway Plate winner, he has easily taken his place in Grade 1 company this term.
He ran a cracker to finish second to Road To Respect in the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Chase, the old Lexus, at the Christmas Festival over three miles, and he stepped up on that performance last time in winning the Ryanair Chase.
It may be that it is that performance which has been under-rated. He travelled like a high-class horse through that race for Davy Russell behind Un De Sceaux, and he came clear of his top-class rival from the third last fence. He won by four and a half lengths, with another eight lengths back to Cloudy Dream in third, and he clocked a fast time.
Soft ground was a worry going into that race, but he handled conditions well. Very soft ground today would still be a worry, but less of a worry than it would have been had he not coped with it at Cheltenham.
Just a seven-year-old, the Gigginstown House horse is probably still progressing, and this intermediate trip could be his optimum, at least for now. It is obviously a high-class race, and Politologue and Cloudy Dream are both proven at Aintree, but the two Irish horses are officially rated a fair way superior to their rivals, and Balko Des Flos could get closer to Min than the market suggests he will.
Snow Falcon could also run well in the Mildmay Chase. Noel Meade’s horse has won just once in five chases, but he was a high-class hurdler, and he is progressing nicely over fences.
The chase that he won was at Leopardstown at Christmas, when three of his four rivals, including warm favourite Bacardys, failed to complete, but he still beat Wishmoor easily, and Wishmoor has won two of his three chases since.
Snow Falcon finished just fifth next time in the Grade 1 Flogas Chase back at Leopardstown in February, but he travelled well through his race that day for Sean Flanagan, and it looked like he was going to be involved when he challenged Monalee on the run to the final fence, but he just wasn’t as strong as his rivals on the run-in. Even so, he was only beaten a total of five and a half lengths in the end.
That Flogas Chase was a strong race, stronger than may have appeared at the time given that five of them finished within five and a half lengths of each other. The winner Monalee has since come out and finished second in the RSA Chase, while runner-up Al Boum Photo has since beaten JLT Chase winner Shattered Love in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at Fairyhouse, with Flogas Chase third Invitation Only back in third. Also, seventh-placed The Storyteller won the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival next time, while Rathvinden, who fell at the second last fence in the Flogas, went to Cheltenham and won the National Hunt Chase, and Koshari, who was pulled up in the Flogas, won next time at Clonmel.
Snow Falcon unseated his rider last time in the Irish Grand National with a circuit to go, but that wasn’t his fault, as he was hampered when The Paparrazi Kid fell in front of him, and the fact that he didn’t have to finish off his race that day in really testing conditions is a positive in the context of today's race. That was his first run since early February, so he comes into today’s race a relatively fresh horse.
He ran a big race in the Liverpool Hurdle last year to finish third behind Yanworth and Supasundae on his only run to date at Aintree, so we know that he can go well at the track, and he could run a big race today.
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