Free betting previews and tips | Donn McClean: Flying the Flag
Irish form expert Donn McClean picks out five Irish-trained horses that could make a mark at Royal Ascot this week, including U S Navy Flag.
Royal Ascot has always been special for the Irish. Back in the 1960s and 1970s, it was Vincent O’Brien who led the raiding party. These days, with 61 winners and counting, it’s Aidan O’Brien. (Still no relation.)
There have been barren pockets, like in 1986 and 1989 and 1990 and 1994, when there were no Irish-trained winners, and there were only two as recently as 2009. But there has been a depth to the Irish challenge at Royal Ascot in recent years. Exactly eight Irish-trained winners every year from 2012 to 2015 inclusive, 10 in 2016 and seven last year. This year’s raiding party looks to be as strong as ever, and here are five horses who could be of particular interest.
U S Navy Flag (St James’s Palace Stakes, Tuesday)
US Navy Flag had a remarkable season last season as a juvenile, running 11 times and improving with just about every run until he disappointed on his final run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on the Del Mar dirt. On the way, Aidan O’Brien’s colt won the Middle Park Stakes and the Dewhurst Stakes, two of the defining races of the European Pattern for juvenile colts.
The War Front colt is proving to be similarly progressive this term. He improved on his debut run at Leopardstown when he went to France and did well to finish a close-up fifth in the French 2000 Guineas from a wide draw, after stumbling as they rounded the home turn. And he stepped up on that run last time when he finished second in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
He has over two lengths to find with Romanised on that run, and Romanised is a big player in Tuesday’s race, but U S Navy Flag is a bigger price than Ken Condon’s horse, and there may not be much between them. The Curragh’s mile is a stiff mile and US Navy Flag raced on the pace throughout.
A full-brother to Roly Poly, who finished second to Winter in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last year before going on to win the Falmouth Stakes and the Prix Rothschild and the Sun Chariot Stakes, U S Navy Flag does appear to be at his best when he races prominently, and the fact that the St James’s Palace Stakes is run on the round mile and not on the straight mile is a positive in that regard. The fact that he will have Ryan Moore for company is also obviously a big positive.
BET: U S Navy Flag 6/1 for the St James's Palace with Sky Bet
Servalan (Queen Mary Stakes, Wednesday)
Servalan holds entries in the Queen Mary Stakes and the Albany Stakes, but it looks like Jessica Harrington is favouring the five-furlong race.
The No Nay Never filly didn’t really have the run of the race on her racecourse debut at Dundalk in early may when she was beaten a half a length by Andre Amar. That horse finished second to Sergei Prokofiev in the Listed Rochestown Stakes over five furlongs at Naas on his next run, a half an hour before Servalan stepped forward and won the Listed Fillies Sprint Stakes over six.
Settled at the back of the field by Seamie Heffernan through the early stages of that race, she picked up impressively on the near side inside the two-furlong pole, and she kept on well to beat her stable companion Chicas Amigas by over a length.
She is going to have to progress again from that if she is going to win at Royal Ascot, but that was just her second race, and she shaped like a filly who would progress. She is by No Nay Never, a son of Scat Daddy who won the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2013, and that Naas listed race is the same race that her stable companion Alpha Centauri won last year before she went to Royal Ascot and ran such a big race in the Albany.
Saltonstall (Royal Hunt Cup, Wednesday)
Michael Halford sent out Portage to win the Royal Hunt Cup in 2016, and he could go close to repeating that feat with Saltonstall on Wednesday.
Owned, like Portage, by Godolphin, Saltonstall raced just once last year as a three-year-old, in Rekindling’s Ballysax Stakes. Niggly little problems kept him off the track for the remainder of the season, but he is already making up for that absence this term as a four-year-old.
Gelded during the winter, the son of Pivotal ran a big race on his debut this term to finish second in the Irish Lincoln. You have to forgive him his defeat at Cork next time when he raced without his tongue-tie, but you easily can, as that race was run on heavy ground. He put that run behind him last time when he landed a competitive one-mile handicap on good ground at The Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend off a mark of 98, appearing to win with a fair bit more in hand than the bare one-length winning margin.
The Royal Hunt Cup has reportedly been the plan for a little while, and he is a powerful, long-striding horse who should be well suited to Ascot. He is classy, he is relatively lightly-raced, and he has the potential to go beyond the handicap rating of 103 off which he is set to race on Wednesday.
Alpha Centauri (Coronation Stakes, Friday)
Alpha Centauri was a top class juvenile last season. She easily landed a Naas maiden on her racecourse debut and she followed up by winning a listed race back at Naas by five lengths. Then she went to Royal Ascot last year, and went down by just a neck to Different League in the Albany Stakes, the pair of them finishing nicely clear of their rivals.
The Mastercraftsman filly disappointed in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her next run, which proved to be her final run as a juvenile, and she was well beaten in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial on her debut this term. But both of those runs were on soft or heavy ground, which is just not her ground.
As a result of those two runs, Jessica Harrington’s filly went into the Irish 1000 Guineas as a relatively unheralded filly, but she put up an impressive display there, coming from back in the field and staying on strongly for Colm O’Donoghue, in a race in which the early pace held up well, to provide her trainer with her first win in a Classic.
This year’s renewal of the Coronation Stakes is shaping up to be a hot one, with the winners of the Irish, English and French 1000 Guineas all set to clash, and with last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes winner Clemmie also in the mix. But Alpha Centauri is proven at Ascot and she should get the good fast ground that she enjoys.
BET: Alpha Centauri 7/2 for the Coronation Stakes with Sky Bet
Merchant Navy (Diamond Jubilee Stakes, Saturday)
The Diamond Jubilee is set to be one of the highlights of the week, but Merchant Navy has a big chance of winning it.
Third, beaten a short head and a head, by Redkirk Warrior in the Group 1 Lexus Newmarket Handicap at Flemington in March when trained by Aaron Purcell, he was relatively weak in the market before he made his debut for Aidan O’Brien in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes at The Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend, but he was impressive in winning. He picked up nicely and he kept on powerfully to come and beat his stable companion Spirit Of Valor by a length, with Tasleet and Brando back in third and fourth.
Aidan O’Brien said after the Greenlands that the Fastnet Rock colt had been just about ready to start off, that he hadn’t done that much since he had arrived from Australia. It is reasonable to assume that he will improve for that run and, still really only three and a half years old, he could run a big race.
BET: Merchant Navy 7/2 for the Diamond Jubilee with Sky Bet
Read more of Donn's work at www.donnmcclean.com
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