Donn McClean previews today's card at Punchestown
Donn McClean with two value bets for the opening day of the Punchestown Festival.
And so it begins, the Punchestown Festival with the 2017/18 Irish National Hunt trainers’ championship as the perfect foil.
There is not much more to be said now about the trainers’ championship that has not already been said. We have been here before, 12 months ago actually, when Willie Mullins caught Gordon Elliott in the dying embers of the season. This time, Gordon Elliott’s lead is greater. It’s fascinating.
And we are the main beneficiaries, the racegoers, the racing fans. Not just because of the intrigue of the duel, but also because of the quality of the racing to which we will be witness this week, as both trainers go all-in at Punchestown.
The two trainers will dominate most of the feature races this week. Take the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle today, for example, the first Grade 1 contest of the week. Ten runners, four representing Mullins, three representing Elliott.
The big match-up is Getabird v Mengli Khan. The pair of them have met twice, once in the Moscow Flyer Hurdle at Punchestown, when Getabird won and Mengli Khan finished second, nine lengths behind, and once in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, when Mengli Khan finished third, 41 lengths ahead of Getabird.
Of course, that wasn’t Getabird’s true running, he raced too freely and he was going left-handed. All his form is at right-handed tracks, and he looked as good as ever at Fairyhouse last time.
There is a sense, however, that Mengli Khan was not at his best in the Moscow Flyer Hurdle. Also, Gordon Elliott’s horse is 6lb better off today, he should appreciate the drying ground, and he races again today in the tongue-tie that he wore for the first time at Cheltenham. He could get closer to Getabird today than he did in January.
That said, Paloma Blue could represent some value against the pair of them. Henry de Bromhead’s horse ran a big race to finish third behind Samcro in the Deloitte Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leoparstown in February, and he ran another big race to finish fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last time, just a length behind Mengli Khan.
The ground was probably softer than ideal for him on both occasions, he should appreciate the better ground today. Also, he was a little keener than ideal through the early stages of both races. If he can settle a little better today, that could allow him improve his performance even further.
Chris Jones’ horse should be learning to settle better as he gains in experience, and you can be sure that they will go a good pace today which should help in that regard. Punchestown suits him well, he finished second to Fayonagh in the Champion Bumper at this meeting last year, and he could run a big race today.
Douvan sets the standard in the BoyleSports Champion Chase. Willie Mullins’ horse was travelling and jumping like the Douvan of old in the Champion Chase last time until he suffered that crashing fall at the fourth last fence.
It is impossible to know how he would have fared had he not come down, it is a long way from the fourth last fence to the winning line at Cheltenham, but it looked like he was back, and it was great to see it.
You would love to see him go and win easily today, but he is now an odds-on shot, and that is short.
Min is the obvious alternative, but he has had hard races now at Cheltenham and Aintree. He was just beaten by Politologue over two and a half miles on soft ground at Aintree last time, and that was only 11 days ago. Un De Sceaux and Doctor Phoenix are both top class chasers, but the ground may be faster than ideal for both.
Ordinary World could out-run big odds. Representing the same connections as Paloma Blue, the Milan gelding has won just one of his nine chases, and he has 18lb to find on official ratings with Douvan, but he is a talented individual and his last two runs have been very good.
He probably would have finished second to Min in the Coral Dublin Chase at Leopardstown in February had he not made a terrible mistake at the final fence. He did well to stay on his feet, and Davy Russell did really well to remain in the saddle.
He ran better than the form of the race suggests too – fifth, beaten 35 lengths – in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham. Under a patient ride from Russell, he travelled really well down the hill, and he moved up easily on the outside as they raced to the home turn. He just tired from the second last fence as the testing ground probably took its toll.
He is another who should be happier on the drying ground today. He goes well right-handed – his record over fences going right reads 122 – and he has finished second in both his runs over fences at Punchestown. The fast pace that they are sure to go will suit him well, and he could be running on at the end when some of his rivals have had enough.
For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com
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