Donn McClean previews the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby
Donn McClean feels Delano Rooevelt is the value call in the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby - check out his preview.
They are correct, of course. On the bare form of their respective runs in the Epsom Derby, Saxon Warrior should not be favourite to beat Dee Ex Bee in today’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.
Mark Johnston’s horse finished second at Epsom, two places and three lengths in front of Saxon Warrior. On that basis, it does not make sense that Aidan O’Brien’s horse is odds-on for today’s contest.
But, as usual, you have to dig more deeply. You have to look beyond the bare form of the most recent race. There was mitigation at Epsom. Saxon Warrior was drawn in stall one (they don’t call it the coffin box for nothing), he stumbled a little on leaving the stalls, which accentuated the negative impact of his low draw, and a gap closed in front of him at the three-furlong marker when Ryan Moore wanted to go forward.
Did all of that cost him three lengths or more? Impossible to know.
There was also the fact that the Deep Impact colt did not appear to be completely at ease on Epsom’s contours. Aidan O’Brien said afterwards that he might have been in awe of the whole occasion. That it was just his fifth run.
Dee Ex Bee was racing for the eighth time at Epsom. He was more battle-hardened going into the race.
More importantly, Saxon Warrior had shown better form than his Epsom Derby form before. He was unbeaten in three runs last year as a juvenile, he won the Beresford Stakes and the Racing Post Trophy, and he put up the performance of his career in winning the 2000 Guineas on his debut this season. That is the run that entitles him to be a warm favourite for today’s contest.
Of course, that was over a mile and today’s race is over a mile and a half. He has to go a distance today that is 50% further than the distance over which he recorded his career-best. But he is bred for it: by a champion multiple Group 1-winning Japanese St Leger winner, out of a Galileo mare who won the Moyglare Stud Stakes and finished third in the Guineas and who is from the family of an Oaks winner.
Aidan O’Brien’s colt showed bags of pace in the Guineas, and he has to conclusively prove his stamina for today’s distance, but you can’t say that it was a lack of stamina that beat him in the Epsom Derby. He ran to the line. It will be fascinating to see how he fares on a more conventional track today.
From a betting perspective, however, there may be value lurking beyond the big two in the form of Delano Roosevelt. He is another regally-bred Ballydoyle contender, by Galileo out of the Danehill Dancer mare Again, who won the Moyglare Stud Stakes as a juvenile and the Irish 1000 Guineas as a three-year-old.
Delano Roosevelt was a high-class two-year-old last year, rounding off his three-race season by finishing second behind his stable companion Saxon Warrior in the Beresford Stakes.
He ran big races too in the two main Derby trials in Ireland in the early par of this season, beaten a half a length in the Ballysax Stakes, beaten three parts of a length in the Derrinstown, and he was quietly fancied to run a big race in the Epsom Derby.
It never really happened for him at Epsom. He missed the break, he was squeezed out of it early and he was stone last of the 12 runners racing to the right-hand kink. It was always going to be difficult for him from there.
He did get into a position of sorts by the time they reached the top of the hill, he got up along the inside to dispute eighth place, just two lengths behind Saxon Warrior and Masar, and he travelled well down the hill, but his early exertions probably took their toll from there. He couldn’t quicken with the principles, but he did keep on to take sixth place.
He is a real galloper who should be well suited by The Curragh.
You have to allow him his defeat in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last Friday, but you easily can. They didn’t go a great gallop in the King Edward, and Delano Roosevelt was a hostage to pace, held up, as he was, towards the rear of the field. He does have four lengths to make up with King Edward winner Old Persian today, but the Godolphin colt enjoyed the run of the race at Ascot, prominent from early, and it is not unrealistic to expect that the Ballydoyle colt will make up that deficit today in what will surely be a truly-run contest.
His profile is remarkably similar to the profile that last year’s Irish Derby hero Capri had going into last year’s race. Delano Roosevelt finished second in the Beresford Stakes, second in the Ballysax, second in the Derrinstown, sixth in the Epsom Derby. Capri finished first in the Beresford, fourth in the Ballysax, third in the Derrinstown, sixth in the Epsom Derby.
Also, Seamie Heffernan rode Capri in the Epsom Derby last year, and he rode him to victory at The Curragh. Heffernan rode Delano Roosevelt at Epsom this year and, with Ryan Moore obviously on Saxon Warrior, it is a positive that Heffernan rides him again today. The Galileo colt could out-run his odds by a fair way.
For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com
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