Donn McClean's view from Ireland ahead of Royal Ascot 2019
Irish expert Donn McClean highlights three Royal Ascot raiders not to be missed this week, including a familiar face who struck gold 12 months ago.
We don’t tend to look for an Irish 'banker' at Royal Ascot in the way that we look for an Irish 'banker' at the Cheltenham Festival but, if we did, there would be a few contenders this year.
Ten Sovereigns in the Commonwealth Cup, Arizona in the Coventry Stakes, maybe Lope Y Fernandez in the Chesham. Of all the short Irish ones, however, Hermosa in the Coronation Stakes on Friday is probably the most solid.
Aidan O’Brien’s filly caused a mild surprise when she won the 1000 Guineas at Nerwmarket on her seasonal debut. Allowed go off at 14/1 that day, only third in of Aidan O’Brien’s four fillies in the race, she led from flagfall under Wayne Lordan, and she kept on strongly all the way to the line to repel all challengers.
The general expectation then was that, a daughter of Galileo and a full-sister to Hydrangea and The United Stakes, she would progress further when she stepped up in trip. That she could be an Oaks filly. But Aidan O’Brien took her to The Curragh for the Irish Guineas instead of going to Epsom for the Oaks, and she was even more impressive there than she had been at Newmarket in making all under Ryan Moore.
Again, a step up in trip was always an option after the Irish Guineas, the Prix de Diane at Chantilly over 10 and a half furlongs was an option, but Aidan O’Brien said last week that she would go to the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot instead, and that makes sense. Her best two runs, her two Guineas wins, have been over a mile.
If it ain’t broke.
Actually, Hermosa has a similar profile now to the profile that Winter had going into the Coronation Stakes two years ago. Surprise winner of the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, impressive winner of the Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh, by Galileo, trained by Aidan O’Brien. Winter ran out an easy winner of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2017, then went on and landed the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. Four Group 1 wins in a row.
This year’s renewal of the Coronation Stakes is shaping up to be a good one. We should have the Irish and English Guineas winner, the French Guineas winner, the Irish Guineas runner-up, and an unexposed filly who ‘could be anything’ lining up against each other.
Pretty Pollyanna was making her seasonal debut in the Irish 1000 Guineas when she got to within four lengths of Hermosa, and Castle Lady is the French 1000 Guineas winner, unbeaten in three, and Jubilosa is the hugely exciting Sir Michael Stoute filly whose limitations have not been exposed yet. But they all have to progress significantly to get up to the level that Hermosa has already attained, and the Ballydoyle filly could go higher still. She is uncomplicated, and Ascot’s stiff mile should suit her ideally. She is short, but she is probably the most likely winner of the race by a fair way.
New Graduate is the most likely winner of Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup according to the market, insofar as there is ever a most likely winner of the 30-runner prolonged charge, but Settle For Bay could go well in the race again.
David Marnane’s horse is up against the stats, in that no horse has won back-to-back renewals of the Hunt Cup since the 1940s, but you can make the case. He is set to race off a mark of 105 this year, a mark that is 6lb higher than the mark of 99 off which he won it last year. It is not an insurmountable hike. Such was the impression that he created last year, it is difficult to argue that he wouldn’t have won it with another 6lb on his back.
He travelled like the most likely winner from a fair way out that day and, when Billy Lee asked him to pick up, the response was impressive. He won by over two lengths in the end from Afaak, with heads and necks separating the next few home, but he probably had more than the mere winning margin in hand.
The Rio De La Plata gelding didn’t run after that last season, and he was well beaten twice in two runs in Dubai during the winter. However, he has had a wind operation since then, and his latest run, in the Listed Glencairn Stakes at Leopardstown, his second run back in Ireland this season, was really encouraging.
Settled in last place early on that day, he travelled well into the home straight and he stayed on nicely all the way to the line to take fourth place behind Flight Risk, who followed up by landing the Group 3 Ballycorus Stakes back at Leoapardstown last Thursday evening.
Settle For Bay should progress from that run, effectively just his second run of the season. Also, he will be better suited by the stiff, straight mile at Ascot, and by the faster pace that he should get in the Royal Hunt Cup. We know that he can operate at Ascot’s straight track, which is important, over the course and distance, and under Royal Ascot conditions. He could run a big race.
Kew Gardens could also run a big race in the Gold Cup on Thursday. We don’t know yet that he will stay two and a half miles, but he is bred for stamina, and he races over a mile and six furlongs as if he will get further.
Aidan O’Brien’s horse was an impressive winner of the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last year, he is one for one at the track, and he stayed on strongly over a mile and six and a half furlongs to win the St Leger at Doncaster last September.
He has been beaten in both his runs this season to date, but the ground was soft when he finished second in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester behind Morando, who relishes those conditions, and he went close to beating Defoe last time in the Coronation Cup at Epsom over a mile and a half, a distance that is probably short of his best.
Stradivarius is, of course, going to be difficult to beat. He was the outstanding stayer of last season, he won his five races, including the Ascot Gold Cup, and he was impressive in winning the Yorkshire Cup on his debut this season. However, in this race last year, he was the progressive four-year-old who was taking on the older horses. The horses who filled the next six places behind him in last year’s race were aged, respectively, six, six, six, seven, nine and eight.
This year, in a race in which four-year-olds have triumphed six times in the last seven years, he is the older horse who is taking on the progressive young stayers. John Gosden’s horse sets a high standard, but he may not be invincible, and Kew Gardens could represent some value against him.
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