Donn McClean is previewing Leopardstown's Christmas Festival for us all week and he has two bets for this afternoon's card.
It is understandable that Polidam has dominated the betting for today’s Paddy Power Chase since the weights were released.
Willie Mullins’ horse was impressive in winning on his debut this season at Navan two and a half weeks ago. Left in front at the last fence in the back straight that day, which is a long way from home on soft ground at Navan, he stayed on strongly up the home straight, despite making a mistake at the third last fence, to finish nine lengths clear of his much better-fancied stable companion Acapella Bourgeois, who was clear of third-placed Fine Rightly.
That was just Polidam’s second run for Mullins – he was well backed on his debut for the champion trainer in a big handicap chase at Punchestown in April – and it was his seasonal debut, so there is every chance that he will progress from that. Also, he could improve for the step up to three miles.
However, a 9lb hike takes him up to a mark of 145, which leaves him with 11st 6lb to carry today. That is a negative in the context of a race that tends to be dominated by the low weights. Only one horse has carried more than 11st 3lb to victory in the last 10 years, and only two carried more than 10st 11lb. Polidam may have the class to carry the weight, but he is short.
Space Cadet is a more attractive betting proposition at a much bigger price. The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding finished second in five of his seven races over hurdles without winning, but he has always shaped like a chaser, and he got off the mark on his first attempt over fences on his debut last season.
Second behind the talented Edwulf in a novices’ handicap chase at Naas last February, he shaped encouragingly on his debut this season in the Troytown Chase at Navan. Chris Jones’ horse travelled well into the home straight and, after making a mistake at the second last fence, he just kept on to take sixth place behind his stable companion and ‘ownermate’ Mala Beach.
Weak in the market before the Troytown, and there is every chance that Space Cadet will improve from that run, his seasonal debut. The handicapper left him on his mark of 132, which is fair and which gets him into today’s race on 10st 6lb, and that is ideal. He is only seven and he has raced just eight times over fences, so he still has plenty of scope for progression as a staying chaser, and he goes well at Leopardstown. In four runs there, he has won a bumper and finished second twice over hurdles. He could go well at a decent price.
The beginners’ chase earlier on the card is fascinating, with last season’s Deloitte Hurdle runner-up Bunk Off Early put in as favourite ahead of his stable companion Montalbano and the two Gigginstown House horses, Tycoon Prince and Le Martalin.
Those two met in a beginners’ chase at Navan four weeks ago, where Le Martalin got no further than the first fence, and then hampered Tycoon Prince and a few others when running loose at the second.
Even so, Tycoon Prince ran a cracker to finish second to the talented Al Boum Photo, clear of the rest of the field. He jumped well for Davy Russell, he made nice ground to join Willie Mullins’ horse at the second last fence and he looked a likely winner between the final two fences before he appeared to tire on the run up the hill. Even so, it was a fine performance from Gordon Elliott’s horse, and the form of the race was enhanced yesterday when Al Boum Photo probably would have won the Grade 2 chase at Limerick had he not fallen at the final fence.
A triple bumper winner three seasons ago, Tycoon Prince had a truncated term last season over hurdles, but he has always been a chaser in-waiting, and he should come on for that Navan run, his chasing debut, his seasonal debut, and his first run since last March. There could be more to come from him as a chaser.
Donn's Best Bets (December 27)
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