Donn McCLean previews this afternoon's action at Leopardstown
Donn Mcclean previews a mouthwatering card at Leopardstown this afternoon and has a 16/1 fancy in the big handicap.
It’s some day ahead. Some weekend. Irish Champion Stakes day at Leopardstown today, Irish St Leger day at The Curragh tomorrow. The two days came together four years ago and, under the guidance of some forward-thinking individuals, with some ballast added to the weekend’s programme, Longines Irish Champions Weekend came into being.
There are stars all over the place, Alpha Centauri the brightest. A star system to astronomers, but just a star to those who have even a peripheral interest in thoroughbred competition. Under the expert guidance of Jessica Harrington and her team, the Niarchos family’s filly has lit up the 2018 season. An Irish Guineas, a Coronation Stakes, a Falmouth Stakes, a Prix Jacques le Marois. Four wins on the spin, four Group 1 races, three different countries.
She has not raced on Irish soil since she landed the Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh in May, so you can be sure that the Irish racing public will pack deep in order to see her at Leopardstown today when she parades before the Coolmore Fastnet Rock Matron Stakes. The neck-strain will be worthwhile too. She is a substantial filly, as impressive in stature as she is in full flight.
Laurens and Happily and Clemmie are Group 1 winners, and Magical is a dual Group 2 winner. High-class fillies all. But they all have around a stone to find on Alpha Centauri on official ratings. That puts the Mastercraftsman’s proven ability into context. The ground should be perfect and Colm O’Donoghue is a top rider who majors in simplicity and efficiency. She is prohibitively priced, she is not a betting proposition, but you can will her home without a financial involvement.
Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior will go at it again in the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes. This is Round Six, Roaring Lion is 3-2 up and John Gosden’s colt is in the ascendancy: he has come out on top on the last three occasions on which the pair of them have met.
Consequently, the Kitten’s Joy colt is the correct favourite for today’s race. He is the Eclipse winner, the Juddmonte International winner. He goes to Leopardstown today on a high.
By contrast, Saxon Warrior goes there with a point to prove. Aidan O’Brien’s horse was brilliant in winning the Guineas over a trip that should have been shorter than ideal. He could only finish fourth in the Derby, but he was only beaten a neck by his old adversary in the Eclipse.
The gap between the pair of them was extended to five lengths in the Juddmonte International, but we can expect Saxon Warrior to progress from that run. Aidan O’Brien was very candid then about the fact that his horses were only just getting back to themselves after the bug that had afflicted them at the height of the season. And Saxon Warrior conceded about three of those five lengths to Roaring Lion as he weakened through the final furlong.
Also, the race is in Ireland today. It’s a home game for Saxon Warrior, and that is worth at least half a goal. Roaring Lion has never raced beyond British shores before. For their five previous meetings, it was Saxon Warrior who had to do the travelling.
Study Of Man adds an extra dimension. The Prix du Jockey Club winner is bidding to become the second French-trained horse to plunder the Irish Champion Stakes in three years, but just the third in 28.
You can be sure that Pascal Bary’s horse will be better than he was when he was beaten in a Group 2 race at Deauville last time, but he will have to be significantly better than that if he is going to be a player in today’s race.
Lincoln winner Addeybb is an interesting contender, but he would have been more interesting if the rains had arrived and, in truth, it is difficult to see anything else improving by the magnitude that would be required to beat both the big two. And, of the big two, at respective prices, Saxon Warrior is the value.
Earlier in the day, Willie Mullins and Aidan O’Brien dominate the market for a fascinating Petingo Handicap, being collectively responsible, as they are, for the top four in the market. And it is easy to understand why Sharjah is favourite.
Willie Mullins’ horse really should be a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, and he stayed on strongly to land the Galway Hurdle last time off a hurdles mark of 146. He has been raised to a mark of 154 over hurdles, so it is easy to conclude that he is probably well handicapped today, racing off a flat mark of 93.
We saw again at Doncaster on Friday how proficient Willie Mullins is on the flat, when he had the 1-2 in the Doncaster Cup, and you can be sure that Sharjah will be primed for this, with champion jockey Colin Keane taking the ride. But the Doctor Dino gelding hasn’t run on the flat since September 2016, and he is short.
Saracen Knight made all and stayed on nicely to win over a mile and a half at Naas two weeks ago on his first run in almost a year, but he is also short enough, and Batts Rock might represent some value against the top two.
The Fastnet Rock gelding has run just twice since he joined Gordon Elliott. He won a five-runner qualified riders’ race at Bellewstown on his Irish debut in July, and he followed up by landing the Ladies Derby at The Curragh on Irish Oaks day.
He only won by three parts of a length that day, and he did have a good run through the race, on the inside just behind the leaders. And he did have Lisa O’Neill for company.
But he travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out, and he appeared to idle once he hit the front. It is possible that he won with a fair bit more in hand than the bare winning margin. The runner-up Dasmyhoss was well fancied and well backed, and Batts Rock was giving him 20lb, while the third-placed horse Here For The Craic won another lady riders’ handicap at Tipperary last month.
The handicapper raised Batts Rock by just 1lb for that win to a mark of 91, and that was fair. That is a mark off which there could be a decent handicap in him now for Elliott. This extended 12-furlong trip is a good trip for him, he goes well on fast ground, he is nicely drawn in stall five, and he has Declan McDonogh for company. There are lots of positives.
For more of Donn's work visit www.donnmcclean.com
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