We asked our experts Nic Doggett and Ben Linfoot whether True Love is quick enough to land Group 1 glory in France over six-and-a-half furlongs.
Prix Maurice de Gheest odds
Paddy Power: 7/4 True Love, 4 Stolen Kiss, 9/2 Division, 6 Samangan, 10 Mise En Boite, 11 Take Charge Star, 12 Wise Approach, 14 Mitbaahy, 16 Afandy, 20 Rosy Affair, 33 My Calyx Cen, 66 Summer Sail. Each Way: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places.
Ben Linfoot: No.
I think she’s vulnerable at around 7/4.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s a bad call by Aidan O’Brien to drop her in trip. She kept on bumping into Precise and losing over a mile and she does seem to need a very specific set of circumstances to triumph over that distance, namely fast ground and a quicker track.
Perhaps the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland will be ideal for her.
But before then I can see why she’s trying seven and even six-and-a-half on Sunday, as she could well nick a Group 1 at more of a sprinting distance if they go a good clip.
Whether they will go quick enough at Deauville on Sunday is up for debate and if they don’t she could be found out by six-furlong horses like Stolen Kiss and Division. Mise En Boite loves Deauville and that brings him into the reckoning, too, so there are plenty to take her on with.
Watching her last run over seven furlongs at Deauville (YouTube replay below) doesn't inspire the confidence levels. Thesecretadversary was well ridden on the front end off an even gallop, but True Love did all her best work late and that was over half-a-furlong further.
O’Brien will keep on searching to unlock another Group 1 win out of her, but while the odds favour the daughter of No Nay Never this weekend I wouldn’t be surprised if the search goes on, with the trainer looking for his first win in this race in 25 years (last won it with King Charlemagne in 2001).
Nic Doggett: No.
I hate to agree with Ben, but I'm not totally convinced to be honest.
She was obviously a muscly ball of speed last season, but she ran like a horse who has had her main asset slightly tempered when asked to drop back from a mile last time.
They didn't go a strong pace, with Thesecretadversary able to nick a length or two from the front, and I felt the race was over by the time she started to run on.
She'd be following in the footsteps of last year's winner Sajir if able to put a Prix Jean Prat defeat behind her to win this, but he did it with a year in-between the two races.
Looking at the likely line-up, I can't see them going quick enough for it to really suit.
Of the three-year-olds, I'd much prefer to be with Division who I think will relish the return to a flat track, and he holds Samangan on their run in the Commonwealth Cup, but easily the best bet is the progressive Stolen Kiss - another convert from a mile – but one who I think has the best turn of foot.
He made up a vast amount of ground from the rear when a neck fourth to Almeraq in the Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, having twice beaten last year's Prix Maurice de Gheest winner Sajir already this season. Proven over C&D, and now on quick ground, he could be a cut above these on home soil.
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