QIPCO 2000 Guineas: Timeform ratings point to Dewhurst trio
Adam Houghton looks at the Timeform rating it took to win the QIPCO 1000 and 2000 Guineas in recent years - and which horses fit the bill in 2021.
On the day he became the first equine inductee into the QIPCO British Champions Series Hall of Fame, a replay of Frankel’s victory in the 2000 Guineas is well worth digging out to remind yourself just what he was capable of when in full flight.
10 years have now passed since that breath-taking performance on the Rowley Mile – described by Timeform’s race reporter as “an astonishing exhibition of galloping” – but its power to shock and awe is still as potent today as it was then.
Of course, Frankel had already shown himself to be a horse of well above average ability by the time he arrived at Newmarket. After all, he had ended his two-year-old season with a Timeform rating of 133p, a figure which only one juvenile has surpassed in the last 25 years.
That horse, Pinatubo, earned a Timeform rating of 134 after going unbeaten in six starts as a two-year-old but then had contrasting fortunes to Frankel in the 2000 Guineas. Sent off the 6/5-on favourite for a delayed edition of the opening classic last season, Pinatubo could ultimately manage only third behind Kameko, who had won at Group 1 level himself at two but still finished that campaign rated a stone inferior to Pinatubo with a rating of 120.
It’s worth pointing out that the level Kameko had previously achieved when lining up at Newmarket was actually rather typical of many a 2000 Guineas winner before him. For context, the average pre-race rating of the last 10 winners was 119.5, and that drops to 118 when the anomaly that was Frankel is removed from calculations.
Interestingly, only three of the 18 entries in this year’s renewal have achieved even the rating at the lower end of that spectrum, namely the first three from the Dewhurst Stakes at this course in October – St Mark’s Basilica (121p), Wembley (119) and Thunder Moon (118p).
There is clearly still an opportunity for some of the other contenders on Saturday to take a big step forward, just as Night of Thunder did when producing one of the better performances in the 2000 Guineas of the last decade in 2014. He improved to the tune of 16 lb in winning at Newmarket, advancing his Timeform rating from 111p to 127 by beating the likes of Kingman, Australia and Charm Spirit in a red-hot renewal.
The average performance rating achieved by the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas is 126.8. Unsurprisingly, Frankel is comfortably the best winner of the race during that period – he earned a performance rating of 140 for his relentless display in 2011 – while Dawn Approach (130 in 2013), Galileo Gold (126 in 2016) and Kameko (126 in 2020), Gleneagles (125 in 2015) and Churchill (125 in 2017) all earned ratings either above or around the 10-year average.
At the other end of the spectrum, Saxon Warrior ran to a performance rating of just 122 when successful in 2018, while his stablemates Camelot (123 in 2012) and Magna Grecia (124 in 2019) also won what could be considered below-par runnings of the 2000 Guineas in the last decade.
In terms of the improvement shown, the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas have advanced their pre-race rating by an average of 7.3 lb in victory. Like Night of Thunder, Galileo Gold (126 from 112) made a giant leap forward at Newmarket, whereas Saxon Warrior (122 from 120) didn’t need to improve much on what he had shown previously to land the spoils.
As for this year’s race, it’s worth reiterating that all bar the principals from the Dewhurst would need to improve by much more than 7.3 lb to be considered an ‘average’ winner of the race compared to recent renewals. That is far from out of the question in certain cases, however, with natural physical progression from two to three likely to ensure that some of them prove capable of much better than they have shown so far.
Backers of One Ruler, who was promoted to ante-post favouritism following heavy support in recent weeks, will be hoping that he could be one to step up significantly on the form he showed as a two-year-old. One Ruler currently has a Timeform rating of 115 after winning the Autumn Stakes and filling the runner-up spot in the Futurity Trophy last season, so he’ll need to make above-average improvement to make an impact here, akin to that made by Night of Thunder and Galileo Gold.
Lucky Vega (116) and Mac Swiney (116) achieved a higher rating than One Ruler at two, both Group 1 winners in the Phoenix Stakes and Futurity Trophy, respectively. They each have the potential to improve again this year, though it remains to be seen whether a mile at Newmarket will play to their strengths – Lucky Vega has the physique of a sprinter and may prove best up to seven furlongs, whereas Mac Swiney shapes as if likely to be suited by stepping up to middle-distances.
Aidan O’Brien, trainer of St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley, can also count Battleground (115p) and Van Gogh (113) amongst five entries as he seeks a record eleventh win in the 2000 Guineas. Van Gogh had plenty of racing at two, but he signed off with a career best to win the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud and has the physique to suggest he can go on improving as a three-year-old. Similar comments apply to Battleground, who is one of only six amongst the 18 confirmations with a small ‘p’ still attached to his Timeform rating, denoting that he is open to more improvement.
Several of the market leaders have already had the opportunity to demonstrate the progress they’ve made from two to three by contesting key trials this spring. The Craven Stakes won by Master of The Seas (117) appeals as a stronger piece of form than the Greenham Stakes won by Chindit (115) and the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial won by Poetic Flare (111p), though it goes without saying that even more will be required all round here.
Incidentally, eight of the last 10 winners of the 2000 Guineas were making their first appearance of the season, with the only exceptions being Frankel (won the Greenham) and Night of Thunder (second in the Greenham).
Perhaps the most interesting runner to have already had a run this season is Mutasaabeq (115p), who was supplemented at a cost of £30,000 on Monday after winning a conditions event at the Craven Meeting by six lengths in an excellent time. Mutasaabeq is bred in the purple (by Invincible Spirit out of the 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati) and comes into the ‘could be anything’ category, adding further intrigue to what already promised to be a fascinating race.
To touch upon the 1000 Guineas briefly, Santa Barbara (97P) is currently a red-hot favourite despite possessing a lower pre-race rating than any other winner of the race in the last 10 years.
Billesdon Brook (99 in 2018) is the only winner during that period to have been rated less than 100 when lining up at Newmarket, though it is at least easier to see where the improvement is going to come from with Santa Barbara given that she has made only one start. She created a deep impression when winning that maiden at the Curragh and the large ‘P’ attached to her Timeform rating indicates that she has the scope for plenty of improvement.
The average pre-race rating of the last 10 winners of the 1000 Guineas is 108.6, while the average performance rating it has taken to win the race is 116.7. Legatissimo (121 and 2015) and Minding (121 in 2016) share the accolade of being the highest-rated winners of the 1000 Guineas in the last decade, though Minding didn’t need to improve nearly as much after ending her two-year-old campaign with a Timeform rating of 120p.
Pretty Gorgeous (114p) is the standout form contender on Sunday, not needing to improve much to win an ‘average’ renewal of the race by recent standards.
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