Dewhurst Stakes analysis: The key questions ahead of the Newmarket Group One

Where is the pace?

Good question. This might be the biggest field in the Dewhurst since 2009, but there is a shortage of horses that have made the running in this year’s renewal.

Decisive Edge is the one, but he’s rightly a 50/1 chance on form and has only ever run on the all-weather. He’s also drawn in stall one in the middle of the track, with the starting gates positioned stands’ side, so we’ll see if he’s able to lead his 13 rivals from his wide berth.

Devious Company, from stall 10, more towards the stands’ side, has raced prominently in some of his assignments and could go forward, while Fivethousandtoone made all when outclassing his opposition in a Newcastle novice.

He raced a bit keenly in the Mill Reef last time, though, so it will be interesting to see if Silvestre De Sousa lets him stride forward or looks around for something to tow him into the race.

So, despite the field size, things could get tactical and a solid end-to-end gallop does not look guaranteed.

Such a scenario would be a negative for Cadillac, who has already proven himself to stay a mile and probably wants a test at this trip, while it could suit the Mill Reef winner, Alkumait, who settled well at Newbury and showed a wicked turn of foot to put the race to bed.

There look to be plenty of hold-up performers in this, including Alkumait, Albasheer, Chindit and Etonian, so a slower gallop could suit Thunder Moon, too, who showed swift speed once in the open at the Curragh and is likely to be ridden more prominently than most of his rivals.

Is this an up-to-scratch renewal?

It looks it, yes. Going back to 2009, again, the last time a big field tackled the race when 15 lined up, the race was lacking a few stars in Canford Cliffs and Arcano and it resulted in plenty taking their chance against the favourite, Chabal, who was a neck second in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes.

While it’s true no one horse has scared off the opposition this year, like Pinatubo and Too Darn Hot and Churchill have perhaps done in recent seasons, there is no disputing the quality on show, partly due to circumstance after Gain-gate and what have you.

We have the first three from the National Stakes reopposing, the first, second and fifth from the Champagne Stakes and the first, second and seventh from the Mill Reef.

On top of that there is the impressive Solario winner, a three-and-a-half length Group Two winner from Ireland, a Royal Ascot winner and a once-raced Jim Bolger maiden winner who we haven’t seen since before lockdown.

Of the horses you want to see in a Dewhurst, only the Vintage Stakes winner, Battleground, is missing, really, so this race could well find the best juvenile around, especially with a view to next year’s 2000 Guineas, as it so often does.

What’s the best form on offer?

It’s hard to get away from Group One form and the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes certainly stands out here.

Joseph O’Brien’s Thunder Moon beat his father’s Wembley and St Mark’s Basilica at the Curragh, with the impressive Superlative Stakes winner, Master Of The Seas, fourth and the Group One Keeneland Phoenix Stakes winner, Lucky Vega, fifth.

Lucky Vega didn’t live up to his name in the National Stakes, getting no run under Shane Foley, but he advertised the strength of the form when a close-up second to Supremacy in the Middle Park two weeks ago.

Such solid Group One form bodes well for the first three home in the National Stakes in the Dewhurst, but whether they will finish in the same order doesn’t look as cut and dried as the market implies.

Recent history does suggest, thanks mainly to the exploits of Jim Bolger and Aidan O’Brien, that the National Stakes is the best pointer to Dewhurst glory.

Since 2006 six horses have completed the National-Dewhurst double, with Teofilo, New Approach, Dawn Approach, Air Force Blue, Churchill and Pinatubo the sextet in question, while Intense Focus and Beethoven were beaten in the Curragh Group One before winning at Newmarket.

Who appeals most of the home-trained hopes?

It has to be Richard Hannon’s Chindit.

His Winkfield Stakes form from Ascot in July worked out incredibly well, as he beat several subsequent winners that day including Cobh, Naval Crown and Saint Lawrence, while he came with a swooping run under Pat Dobbs to land the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster after that.

The Hannon team seem bullish and he could well go off favourite, but given he was just a length ahead of Joseph O’Brien’s State Of Rest at Doncaster, a horse beaten on his three previous starts in Ireland, you do wonder if the Irish-trained horses hold all the aces in this.

Chindit’s stablemate Etonian is another unbeaten colt from the Hannon yard and he’s been impressive in two wins at Sandown, beating a nice type in King Vega at the Esher track last time out.

He has more to find in pure form terms, but has the potential to get involved, while the Mill Reef form cannot be overlooked.

Bahrain Pride didn’t do an awful lot for the race when fourth in the Cornwallis on Friday, but both Alkumait and Fivethousandtoone dismissed him pretty easily at Newbury and come into this in good form.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Andrew Balding’s Frankel colt reversed the form over this longer trip on softer ground, but he will have to settle better if he’s to see this out.

Alkumait looks a smart prospect, but he looks a sprinter on the evidence of the Mill Reef and could well be outpointed by stronger stayers on Saturday.

How significant is the money for Cadillac?

Backed into 8/1 and 9/1 from 12s on Friday afternoon, there appears to be some confidence behind the claims of Jessica Harrington’s colt.

Harrington chooses her raids to Newmarket carefully and she’s sent just seven horses over for Group Ones at the track in the past, winning two of them with Alpha Centauri and Millisle, while the aforementioned Lucky Vega was second in the Middle Park.

Cadillac was hugely impressive in Group Two company last time out at Leopardstown, but he did seem to appreciate the better ground over a mile after getting beat on soft on his previous start.

Given he’s already proven his stamina for a mile, he probably wouldn’t want a tactical race at this trip, but he’s already proven himself a smart colt, as well, and he’s another contender from a strong Irish team.

Is there an outsider that could get involved?

We head to Ireland, again, and Jim Bolger.

A five-time winner of the Dewhurst, two of those were 20/1 shots in Intense Focus and Parish Hall and this year his sole representative is 33/1 chance Poetic Flare (he too was the subject of a market move on Friday afternoon, with nibbles of support at 50s).

This once-raced colt was last seen prior to lockdown back on March 23 at Naas, over five furlongs, where he beat Lipizzaner, the subsequent Norfolk Stakes fourth, by half a length.

The son of a previous Dewhurst winner, Dawn Approach, he’s a bit of an unknown quantity, but is obviously respected given his trainer’s record in the race.

He’s got the stands’ rail draw in stall 14, won his maiden in heavy ground and the trickle of money for him on Friday is eyebrow-raising, to say the least. It would be some training performance.

Who is the one to be on, then?

It’s difficult to weigh up the different strands of form, but I can’t get away from that red-hot National Stakes. However, I think things might well turn out a bit differently on the softer ground conditions.

Thunder Moon was clearly impressive on what was just his second start, but he showed a smart turn of foot to overcome trouble in-running on good ground and Saturday’s assignment on softer conditions could pose a very different test.

If they don’t go very hard again that could suit him considering his finishing effort off a slow pace at the Curragh, but he looks to possess a lot of speed and I just wonder if his key weapon might be blunted in a soft-ground Dewhurst.

He’s understandably strong in the betting at 3/1, but I must admit I prefer the 16s about the third home in the National Stakes, ST MARK'S BASILICA.

The half-brother to the 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia is on a steep upward curve himself and he did very well in the National Stakes despite his own adversity.

Slowly away at the Curragh, he ran green when coming under pressure but made good headway to take second in the final furlong before he was mugged by his stablemate, Wembley, on the line for the runner-up spot.

There looks likely more to come from him than his shorter-priced stablemate and the seven furlongs on soft ground presents him with the stiffest test he’s faced yet, which could well be the catalyst to a career-best run.

Aidan O'Brien's juveniles can come forward plenty at this time of year, we see it time and time again, and St Mark's Basilica doesn't have much improvement to find to get seriously involved.

Frankie Dettori rides from stall 12 and with four runs under his belt he’s one of the more experienced horses in the field, as well. He has a bit of work to do to reverse form with Thunder Moon, but I don’t think he should be over five times his price given his own profile.

Posted at 1555 BST on 09/10/2020

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