December Gold Cup tips: Horse by horse guide to Cheltenham contest
We look ahead to Saturday's AIS December Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Cheltenham with a full guide to the confirmed runners.
AIS December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Class 1)
When: 1.50, Saturday December 10
Where: Cheltenham
First prize: £74,035
TV: ITV Racing & Racing TV (Sky 426)
Stolen Silver
Favourite for last month's Paddy Power Gold Cup only to unseat three out when still in contention; finished lame. Assuming he's over his ailments there's no reason why he shouldn't give a good account with the stable's horses running well enough. He does, though, still have to prove that he is sufficiently progressive to defy a career high mark, earned with a ready defeat of Simply The Betts over course and distance in April.
Simply The Betts
Developed into a smart chaser for previous connections but has yet to reach the same heights consistently for Paul Nicholls. The handicapper has, however, given him a chance and he's back on the same rating as when winning the Plate at the 2020 Festival. Slightly disappointing in midfield in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but it's possible he'll come on for that outing and even the pick of last season's form puts him in with a shout.
War Lord
Useful novice chaser who won three times before finishing fourth and second in Grade 1s at Cheltenham and Aintree (over two and a half) in the spring. Open to improvement in this sphere and should be competitive from his current rating in this company. May have found the ground quicker than ideal at Exeter on his reappearance and will need to leave that form behind but there are reasons to be hopeful with this longer trip expected to be well within range.
Cheddleton
Effective at two miles, starting last season with a 2 length defeat by War Lord - to whom he was conceding 7 lbs - and a good second to Editeur Du Gite at this venue. Held his form well after that, including when tried over two and a half miles, without suggesting that he can wriggle out of the handicapper's grip. Seasonal return was inconclusive with regards to his stamina but there's encouragement on paper and therein hope lies.
Sole Pretender
Progressed markedly over hurdles from a lowly beginning and has already reached a similar level over fences, performing with credit at this track the last twice. Those two runs were over the minimum and he's been kept, more or less, to that trip since winning a maiden hurdle over two and a half miles in 2018. Wouldn't want to accept that win as copper-bottomed evidence of his stamina but he's bred for a trip and could improve for it.
Frero Banbou
Sole success last season came on heavy ground at Lingfield but proved he can cope with quicker conditions when second at Ascot on his return (Nassalam fifth) before disappointing over the same course and distance last time. Those runs were over an extended two miles and he has yet to race over this far but there is stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree. Probably needs to improve for the trip. Trainer has hit form with a vengeance but Frero Banbou has to prove his effectiveness on the ground and over the trip and doesn't obviously look to have anything in hand unless improving for the latter.
Fern Hill
Useful staying novice hurdler whose chasing career has been something of a slow burner. Has time on his side and there's plenty to like about this season's efforts - and, indeed, the pick of the last too - for all that he's now in deeper waters from a higher mark. Will obviously need to improve again and may ideally be suited by further on softer ground but wouldn't dismiss out of hand.
Fantastic Lady
A winner of four of her 10 starts with three of those victories coming over fences. Raised 3 lbs for winning a mares' race over three miles on her return but neither that rise nor the shorter trip should inconvenience her overduly. Could easily have a good deal more to offer but she got no further than the first in the Topham (hampered, unseated) and remains unproven in the cut and thrust of a big field handicap.
Il Ridoto
Did he stay? His fourth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup begged that question as he appeared set to play a leading role in the finish only to make a mistake at the last and finish five lengths adrift. That was his first run of the season and first after wind surgery while the handicapper has dropped him by 1 lb so there are clearly ticks in a lot of the right boxes for a horse whose best days should be ahead of him. However, the layers are giving little away with his price given that he still has to prove this stamina test on this track suits him as well as it does the pick of his rivals.
Kauto Riko (2nd preference)
Admirable veteran who has posted some fine efforts at this venue, including when fourth in the 2020 Paddy Power Gold Cup. Not disgraced on his reappearance here last month and has been dropped by another 3 lbs but he has gone well fresh in the past so may not improve significantly for the outing and could find things happening too quickly for him if the going remains good.
Fugitif
Two previous attempts at around this trip saw him well beaten but he faced stiff tasks on both occasions; there's stamina in his pedigree and he stayed on well up the hill when a good second to a progressive runner here in November. He's a little higher in the weights so the longer trip will need to bring about improvement but that's feasible and he's not ruled out for all that others boast more solid claims.
Jacamar
Possesses plenty of ability but needs to be produced late in the day and this isn't the easiest track to employ those tactics. He has run well enough here - without hitting the frame - and is slipping back towards a dangerous mark but more suitable opportunities lie in wait further down the line.
Coconut Splash
Hasn't stood a lot of racing and has never been risked on ground quicker than good to soft. The engine is there though and it's a little surprising that he's without a win in seven chases, a record which has no doubt left supporters with little hair having returned a beaten favourite three times. Temptingly handicapped which may persuade them to give him one more last chance if he gets his conditions with the promise of his early career not forgotten.
Storm Control (2nd preference)
Likeable and game front-runner who has enjoyed some career highlights at this course but last month's run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup was not one of them. Beaten a long way behind Midnight River at Stratford prior to that and couldn't be backed with any confidence for all that you only have to go back half a dozen runs to make a case on his second in the Sky Bet Chase from a 5 lb higher mark.
Deyrann De Carjac
A record of three wins from 26 starts doesn't really do justice to a talent that has been more latent than on display since his novice days. He ended his novice chase season rated 145 but is down to 128 which is a fair reflection of how his career has gone but there have been glimpses to suggest that all is not lost including his fairly close fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He filled the same position in last year's renewal and in a similar contest on New Year's Day and could be thereabouts once more.
CONCLUSION
There may not be any rain forecast but freezing temperatures are and conditions could become pretty testing if the frost gets into the ground. It seems highly unlikely that they'll be bouncing off the surface at any rate and that should suit WAR LORD and Fern Hill among others.
They each have something to commend them but preference is for Joe Tizzard's War Lord who showed improved form over hurdles when stepped up to this sort of trip on testing ground and everything he's done over fences to date promises more of the same.
Supporters need to forgive a below-par return in the Haldon Gold Cup but his price largely reflects that run and this test simply looks more suitable and can help him show his true colours.
Updated at 1035 GMT on 08/12/22
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