David Ord ponders what will emerge as Enable's main threat in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Even in the absence of three of the division's biggest guns, David Ord wonders whether Sunday's Arc could still fall to a three-year-old colt.
Autumn is here.
A time when the National Hunt stars get back to serious work, when hundreds of horses are added to My Stable trackers, Horses In Training sales catalogues are clamped to the chests of the great and good, and it seems countless people begin a Twitter countdown to the Cheltenham Festival.
It’s also the season when our Flat champions are crowned.
What’s gone before isn’t forgotten over the next four weeks – but it can be put into context. You may have dominated in England and Ireland through the blazing hot summer months but go to France, America or Australia and do the same at a time when we’re turning the heating on and the barbecues off – well now we’re talking.
Enable did just that in 2017 – her victory in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly followed in the hoofprints of similarly decisive performances in the Investec Oaks, Irish Oaks, King George and Yorkshire Oaks.
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Five Group One wins in total – and yet some would still have Cracksman as their horse of 2017 judged on the way he put a quality field to the sword in rain-softened ground in the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot. He ran to figures that had the rating boys and girls purring.
At that stage it would have been a big price that the two would be heading to ParisLongchamp this October with only a Prix Ganay, Coronation Cup and September Stakes added to their combined CVs.
Enable of course sustained an injury in the spring and her Polytrack thumping of Crystal Ocean was a tantalising glimpse of what we’ve been missing.
The runner-up was meeting her on unfavourable terms but even his most ardent fan would struggle to make a cogent case for why he’ll reverse form in Paris this weekend. But that’s not to disparage a colt that came within a neck of winning a King George in July, but just proof – if it be needed – that when on-song the best of 2017 were performing to a higher level.
Crystal Ocean is perfectly entitled to have another crack at her on Sunday, but you suspect the bigger threat comes from much closer quarters.
When Cracksman had to work so hard to reel in Salouen at Epsom an alarm bell rang and his thumping at the hooves of Poet’s Word, Crystal Ocean’s stablemate and King George conqueror, prompted a mid-season break.
The long, hot, dry days weren’t for him and as the big races came and went, he stayed at Clarehaven. But now the weather has broken, the noises from the Newmarket gallops are encouraging and the playboy of mid-June is once again a professional athlete.
It’s the clash we dreamt of as we headed into winter quarters – but what about the new cast members? Who from the crop of 2018 are going to test the mettle of their elders?
Sadly not Masar, the Investec Derby hero, who suffered a late setback when being prepared for the Coral-Eclipse. He's fully recovered and will be back in 2019. We miss him. Don’t forget here’s a colt who three times this season finished in front of Roaring Lion, in the Craven, 2000 Guineas and at Epsom.
But that was the spring Roaring Lion – a non-stayer in the Derby – but a revelation since and a clear-cut winner of Horse of the Year, if such a definitive gong was offered on this side of the Atlantic.
Just look at his dancecard.
Wins in the Eclipse, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion have underlined what a top-class colt into which he has developed, under the tutelage of team Gosden. His blossoming into the champion of the Classic generation is testament to the trainer’s genius.
Make no mistake this was a colt who was there to be lost in the spring. An 8/13 favourite for his reappearance in the Craven, he finished third – nine lengths adrift of Masar. Too bad to be true – but clearly no physical issue as he returned to Headquarters for the Guineas and ran a sound race to finish fifth – having been isolated on the stands’ rail.
Some questioned whether his quirks were catching up with him but the doubts were answered less than a fortnight later with a thumping win in the Dante where he looked every inch a Group One horse in a Group Two race.
From there we had lift-off but as he lost second in the final 100 yards of the Derby it was clear this was a ten-furlong horse – something Gosden stressed again following his career-best effort back at York for the Juddmonte International.
It’s Ascot not ParisLongchamp for him – and then potentially Churchill Downs. If he was ever to run over 12 furlongs again the Turf there, over three turns, would be the place.
But then intriguingly the Classic was mentioned as the rain poured down at the 32Red Newmarket Open Weekend. Talk of immortality.
Gosden of course has won a Classic before, with Raven’s Pass, but his stretch duel with Henrythenavigator was quickly followed by confirmation that Santa Anita were ditching their newly-installed synthetic Pro Ride track for a traditional dirt surface.
And that’s what every raider since has tried – and failed – to beat America’s finest on.
Roaring Lion’s aggressive campaign has been a breath of fresh air – but it also suggests he won’t be racing at four. If he is a ten-furlong European horse, what’s left to win? All that’s missing from the CV is a Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and his owners, for all their huge investment in the sport, finally have an attractive stallion prospect to bring some money back in.
So... in the absence of the best mile-and-a-half colt and ten-furlong performer – what’s left from the Classic crop of 2018 to try and lower the colours of the Gosden behemoths?
Not the 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior. The Triple Crown dream died at Epsom and he was never to win again. He looked to be back on the right track when second to Roaring Lion at Leopardstown but has been retired with an injury sustained in that race.
Oaks heroine Forever Together looks some way short of the required standard, Prix de Diane heroine Laurens doesn't stay a mile-and-a-half and there has to be question marks over whether French Derby winner Study Of Man does too. You also have to ask whether he’s good enough.
So the three-year-old charge is led by Sea Of Class – who oozed just that when winning what looked to be a stellar renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks last time. She was delivered on the post to win the Irish Classic the time before but the way she bounded clear at the Knavesmire, beating a good yardstick in Coronet, suggested the education was complete.
A progressive daughter of Sea The Stars, she receives the age and sex allowances that have proved crucial in recent years – and there are ticks in a lot of boxes.
There are two question marks though – and the first one is pretty significant. Ground.
William Haggas has been at pains to stress his concerns over her ability to handle some give underfoot – and while the weather up to now has been kind – it’s anyone’s guess still what a) - the description and b) – the actual surface – will be on Sunday.
Then there's tactics. She’s proven very effective held up for a late, withering run. At York the button was pressed earlier than had been the case before, but still she was the last to play her hand. It’s doable at Longchamp - but not necessarily easy - especially when they’re quickening in front of you.
Which leads to... Kew Gardens. Who could just emerge as the biggest threat to the class of 2017.
When he won the William Hill St Leger he was immediately boxed off as a Cup horse for 2018. A stayer through and through.
Now he might well be one – but there are reasons to believe he might sign off for the year with a huge run at the weekend.
First and foremost this is Aidan O’Brien’s best middle-distance three-year-old. He was the horse being aimed at the King George prior to the bug that plagued Europe’s biggest equine superpower through the middle of the summer striking.
By then Kew Gardens was already a Group One winner at Longchamp – admittedly in a very weak Grand Prix de Paris – but there wasn’t anything sub-standard about the Leger – or the performance it took to win it.
Lah Ti Dar was the hype horse at Doncaster and ran a race full of promise in second but at no stage down the long Town Moor straight was she going to get anywhere near Kew Gardens.
He was as strong at the line as at any stage of the race – just shy of seven lengths clear of the third home, stablemate Southern France.
No horse has ever gone on to win the Leger and the Arc in the same season but some – Sun Princess and User Friendly for example – have gone mightily close.
You only have to go back to 2015 and Kingston Hill who popped over from Doncaster to Paris to finish fourth behind Treve, having been handed the worst of the draw and encountering significant traffic problems, too.
There’ll be no secret with Kew Gardens. He’ll need first run on these and is vulnerable to a sudden change of gear from an on-song Enable, a professional Cracksman, or a traffic-free Sea Of Class.
But he’s also arriving here on the back of a full season, a battle-hardened colt with two Group One wins to his name and in the form of his life.
He represents a team who will leave no tactical stone unturned and who got it gloriously right in both the Leger and the QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes (albeit in defeat) last month.
It needs a lot to go right – and some things to go wrong – but the Classic colts of 2018 may yet have a significant say in the glittering autumn showpiece despite the absence of their two brightest stars.
How do you see the Arc unfolding? Who do you fancy to win at Longchamp? Email your thoughts to racingfeedback@sportinglife.com or tweet @sportinglife
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