David Ord reflects on Saturday's Betfair Chase at Haydock and ponders what now for the winner - and those in behind.
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS
It’s all about rhythm.
Not just the Christmas party season where those with it head to the dancefloor in their paper cracker hats, and those without skulk at the bar clutching a hamstring.
But also at Haydock.
Bristol De Mai has it in spades as he showed with another relentless display of jumping and galloping. Behind him, the great and good of the English staying division floundered as Daryl Jacob poured it on.
It wasn’t supposed to happen like this – not on good ground – but around the Newton-Le-Willows circuit this fellow is deadly. He can do things he can’t replicate elsewhere.
It isn’t a ground issue – we learned that on Saturday. He’s not a one-trick pony in that sense. But the question now – as it was 12 months ago – is can he build on that performance, nay even repeat it, elsewhere?
He couldn’t last season.
Nigel Twiston-Davies first pointed to freshness as being the key – there’s no better time to catch him than on his return from a break. Clearly it’s a factor but in 2016/17 he took in the Charlie Hall en route to Haydock – clearly producing a massive leap forward from his first run there.
He didn’t fire in the King George next time though and understandably all roads lead back to Kempton. He arrives there a fresher horse this time around so that’s a tick, and perhaps a summer wind tweak may have helped.
But Twiston-Davies also added that he was a hard horse to keep right. You sense the battles at Naunton are regular ones to keep the wheels on the dashing grey but when he’s good, he’s very good.
It was great to see him dispel the theory he’s a mudlark on Saturday but to prove himself as good away from Haydock on Boxing Day is a arguably a bigger battle.
All isn’t lost with Might Bite, who never found his own rhythm. He was untidy at the first and that set the tone for the rest of the race.
He still had the class to close three out and briefly look a threat but at no stage was he the happy horse who won at Kempton and Aintree last season, and gave such a magnificent sight through three miles and a furlong of the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Nico de Boinville seemed to have a loose rein throughout, his partner never showing the enthusiasm and zest for the fight that so encapsulates him at his best. Initially, connections felt he might have needed it more than they expected – but as the dust settled thoughts turned to the big Haydock fences. And they were big.
The sight of Nicky Henderson inspecting them following the fall of River Wylde rang an alarm bell and several jockeys commented on their daunting nature following earlier races. They took some jumping and for whatever reason Might Bite never quite mastered them.
It seems a more plausible explanation, especially given the positive bulletins over his well-being heading into the race. An unexpected rebuilding process must now take place at Seven Barrows – under the expert tutelage of Yogi Breisner.
The battle may be lost, but the war is still there to be won.
So it is with Native River who ran a huge race in second. He too never looked comfortable around the sharp Haydock track – now it’s on the inside of the Flat circuit it bears no resemblance to the galloping test that so suited the likes of Twin Oaks down the years.
It’s typical of the reigning Magners Cheltenham Cup hero that he stayed in there swinging all the way to the line having at various stages of the contest looked to be on the ropes, if not the canvas.
Clearly a more galloping track and softer ground will play to his strengths and it was surprising to hear the King George nominated as his next port of call. Surely the Lexus at Leopardstown would play more to his strengths? Whatever route they take he’ll still take some passing at Prestbury Park in March.
Stablemate Thistlecrack finished third and looked much more like the force of old following his two below-par efforts in an injury-curtailed campaign last term. His jumping was rusty at best – a mistake four out coming at just the wrong time for him – but he finished his race well and had petrol left in the tank.
The key now is can he back it up? He’ll need to sharpen up if he's to win a second King George, especially in the fencing department, but of the Tizzard pair he looks the one for Kempton.
We went to the Betfair Chase looking for answers though came out of it with more questions.
It might not have been the widely anticipated outcome, but it has teed up the staying division nicely for the weeks and months ahead.
WHERE NOW FOR ASCOT PAIR?
It seems that whenever a horse wins a valuable pot over two-and-a-half miles connections are immediately asked whether they’re going to drop back, or step up in trip.
There are good prizes at the intermediate distance but it’s a sizeable wait for the Ryanair Chase to loom into view and an even longer one for the Aintree Hurdle.
Exhibit A – Politologue – who kicked off his campaign with victory in the Grade Two 1965 Chase at Ascot on Saturday. There’s an awful lot to like about this horse who travels and jumps so well but his quirk – and we all have at least one – is that he doesn’t want to be in front too soon.
He was at the weekend but saw it out well as Charbel threw down a sustained challenge from the last. So where now? He has plenty of toe so a clash with Altior and Sceau Royal in the Tingle Creek was mooted in some quarters. He won the race last year, beating Fox Norton and Ar Mad (Charbel fourth), but this year's renewal looks a whole lot hotter.
In any case, owner John Hales wants to go for the King George. I’ve never met him but I’d imagine he’s a hard man to manoeuvre once his mind is made up and for all Paul Nicholls has one or two doubts about the trip, it’s a sensible move.
He has two key qualities for any King George horse – he travels and jumps. It’s just a question of whether there’s any petrol in the tank when they swing into the home turn. But it’s worth finding out.
If he doesn’t get home there’s always the Coral Ascot Chase in February to lead him into a Ryanair and a defence of his JLT Melling Chase crown at Aintree.
For If The Cap Fits, winner of the Coral Ascot Hurdle, it seems connections are going to go down in trip for the Christmas Hurdle for all his Saturday performance screamed that he’s ready to go up instead.
That said it was a strangely-run, tactical affair, and while he was stronger at the line than at any stage of the race at Ascot, Noel Fehily is a man who knows what he’s sat on. Christmas Hurdle he said straight afterwards, and Hary Fry, who all but won a Champion Hurdle with Rock On Ruby, was in no rush to disagree.
To be fair the jockey has some insight into the current two-mile division having won on Buveur D’Air and Summerville Boy and chased home Samcro aboard Black Op at Cheltenham. If he thinks this is a Champion Hurdle horse, then he most likely is one.
But the way If The Cap Fits finished on Saturday did at least open up the possibility of testing the water at three miles at some stage, and here’s a division that’s awaiting a champion.
Penhill currently holds the trophy but it’s not an iron grip and should If The Cap Fits (20/1 Sky Bet) or even a post-Fighting Fifth Samcro (14/1) point at it, they’d leap to the head of the market.
FIRST TO BLINK
We’re a cynical lot in this great racing game and when talk of Buveur D’Air and Samcro clashing in the BetVictor Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on Saturday was first mooted, we tapped our collective nose and muttered 'yeah right'.
But here we are on the Monday of race week and it’s still game on.
Certainly for Samcro, who is set to shy away from the home comforts of the Hatton’s Grace to take in the delights of a Saturday in Tyneside. And from the perspective of his connections it makes perfect sense.
If he looks a gear or two short of Buveur D’Air – with the advantage of a previous run – then perhaps it is time to rip up Plan A for this season and start looking at other options. But least they’d know once and for all.
For the reigning champion, a reappearance that looked like being a clash with Sky Bet Supreme hero Summerville Boy and a host of previously vanquished rivals suddenly looks altogether tougher.
His yard aren’t exactly flying right now, hindered like most others by a lack of rain. Henderson said last week that not a single horse from Seven Barrows had worked on grass this term – and a couple of tilts up the Farringdon Road gallop usually put the finishing touches to any preparation.
Buveur D'Air is described as being a stuffy horse and clearly the run at the weekend won't be lost on him. If he turns up and beats Samcro and Summerville Boy then not only will he have ended one Champion Hurdle dream, he’ll have significantly eased any concerns his team are harbouring ahead of Altior’s return at Sandown a week later.
