Royal Ascot tips: Commonwealth Cup antepost preview and recommended bets

Racing betting tips: Royal Ascot antepost

1pt win Diligent Harry in Commonwealth Cup at 12/1 (General)

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The Commonwealth Cup has been a brilliant addition to Royal Ascot and the past three winners going on to claim just one race subsequently between them shouldn’t detract from its significance.

No doubt Muhaarar winning the inaugural edition set the bar almost impossibly high but there looks to be a stellar group in store for 2021 with the best of America, France, Ireland and the UK set to clash on June 18.

We also have the prospect of horses trained for Classics potentially dropping back and taking the sprinting scene by storm, as was the case with Muhaarar in 2015, coming into the mix.

One of the more obvious ones in that bracket is the Andrew Balding-trained Alcohol Free, winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes as a two-year-old, but her jockey Oisin Murphy (see quotes in full below) has confirmed the Coronation Stakes to still be plan A for the beaten 1000 Guineas favourite.

Aidan O’Brien took top spot with Caravaggio four years ago and could yet send a curveball this way (Merchants Quay or Battleground, possibly) with Lipizzaner seemingly not coming up to scratch this spring, but the ace in the Irish pack could be Johnny Murtagh’s filly Measure Of Magic, the form of her Navan win last month looking particularly useful after runner-up Logo Hunter’s weekend success at Naas.

Providing connections can circumnavigate a few hurdles courtesy of Brexit and COVID-19 it looks like French star Suesa will be shipping in next month after her Chantilly romp earlier in the week, that in spite of trainer Francois Rohaut having a few issues with the course and the BHA over a runner at the meeting in 2017.

He’s yet to saddle a winner from nine starters in total at Ascot but is no stranger to success on these shores with a 3-6 strike-rate at Goodwood.

An unbeaten daughter of Night Of Thunder, Suesa seems very switched off for a speed-horse and one would imagine she’ll be a few points shorter than the standout 8/1 (bet365) once her participation is truly confirmed.

She’s not the only unbeaten French-trained contender here with Francis-Henri Graffard, trainer of 2019 Coronation heroine Watch Me and last year’s QEII winner The Revenant, expected to run Mehmas colt Chez Pierre, who has yet to mix in Stakes company but, unlike Suesa, does have good ground form to speak of.

America will also be represented, all being well, unsurprisingly through Wesley Ward who has sent out 11 Royal Ascot winners in the past. He’s got Illegal Smile and Campanelle, the latter of which tops the betting with every firm to have priced the race up in spite of not being seen since her Breeders’ Cup fourth over a mile at Keeneland in November.

She’d have an obvious chance on her sprinting juvenile form including a narrow defeat of Sacred in the Queen Mary but there’s always space for the relative late bloomer in this division and DILIGENT HARRY stands out with that principle in mind.

He’s not achieved anything like the same as Clive Cox’s 2020 winner Golden Horde – in fact he wasn’t seen at all as a two-year-old having reportedly been a “bit of a baby”. And yet his progress on the all-weather following a maiden success on January 6 has been stark and you get the strong sense that we’re only just scratching the surface with this colt.

He’s clearly in the right hands when it comes to making his mark at the highest level as a sprinter and, at this stage of his career, there’s no escaping the fact that he’s an out-and-out six-furlong performer.

While not boasting an unblemished record, the son of Due Diligence no doubt learnt more from his unlucky, short-head defeat to Rohaan at Lingfield on March 6 (was in front half a stride after the line) than any of his three wins to date, and that was in evidence when he bolted up in the 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes when last seen on Good Friday.

The form of that race specifically hasn't worked out brilliantly since but he looked on another level completely there, after which jockey Adam Kirby could hardly have given him a more glowing reference. On top of that, Rohaan has come out and won the Group Three Pavilion Stakes at Ascot and second that day was Roger Varian’s Saint Lawrence, who has been a bit of a Commonwealth Cup springer in the past few days, so I suspect he's been mixing in the right sort of company through the winter.

This weekend could be a big factor when it comes to identifying one of Britain’s best chances of Commonwealth Cup success, but in the same breath it’s well worth mentioning there’s a whole load of rain forecast ahead of Saturday’s Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock.

It’s good to soft there at the time of writing and who knows what conditions will be like in reality come raceday with downpours all day Thursday and further showers likely on Friday and Saturday.

Diligent Harry and stablemate Isabella Giles, plus Dragon Symbol, Saint Lawrence, The Lir Jet, Rohaan, Umm Kulthum and the returning Method are all in the mix for Haydock but it’s not hard to see the race cutting up quite considerably.

There’s a fair chance Diligent Harry wouldn’t be risked if the ground completely goes but Golden Horde hadn’t raced since the previous September before winning last summer and the selection looks worth getting on side at the general 12/1 (bet365 go 16s) regardless of the turf prep run.

At a similar price, Cox also has Supremacy to call upon and it's very hard to knock what he did at two in beating Lucky Vega, Minzaal and Tactical in the Group One Middle Park. It's hard to completely rule out a swift resurgence but the horse was shockingly bad on his reappearance and now has a mountain to climb to get back on track by mid-June.

One other horse who more than merits a mention is Plainchant, the sole Commonwealth Cup entry from the yard of John and Thady Gosden. She’s made the winter switch from Maurizio Guarnieri in France and brings some eyecatching form to the table, including a neck second to Fev Rover, which puts her squarely on a par with some of the better two-year-old fillies around last term.

There’s guesswork involved but anyone looking for a likely springer at a fair price (25/1 with three or four firms) could do worse than take a chance on her, but I’d like to see some sort of participation intention before getting involved, personally.

Oisin Murphy, speaking on Wednesday May 19

“It’s highly likely Alcohol Free will stay at a mile and go for the Coronation Stakes, that’s been the target since the Guineas and I don’t think anyone has changed their minds.

“As regards to others in there, The Lir Jet has the Commonwealth Cup and the Jersey as his options and he’s going to run on Saturday (Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes, Haydock).

“Dragon Symbol will most definitely run in the Commonwealth, provided it’s not very slow ground as that’s not what he wants at all.

“He has to run in a Group race really before going to Royal Ascot so he’s got to run on Saturday (Sandy Lane) before going. He’s entered in the King’s Stand too but will be Commonwealth-bound.

“Fivethousandtoone is also in the Commonwealth Cup picture, his work has been stepping up. He had a little bit of a setback at the back-end of last year but his work is stepping up all the time now.

“So we’ve a few in the picture but I don’t know which one I’ll be riding just yet.”

Published at 1450 BST on 19/05/21

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