Coral-Eclipse: The big questions ahead of Sandown's Group One feature on Saturday
Ben Linfoot attempts to answer the big questions ahead of Saturday's Coral-Eclipse with Roaring Lion's potential at 10 furlongs one of the points under discussion.
Will Saxon Warrior bounce back now he tackles 10 furlongs for the first time?
What a fascinating development that Saxon Warrior runs in this.
The world was his oyster after the 2000 Guineas with a Triple Crown dream alive and well, but his Derby fourth quashed those ambitions and his Guineas sparkle was missing again when he was third in the Irish Derby at the Curragh last weekend.
After that it was thought Aidan O’Brien and The Lads would sit down and take stock in a bid to revive the son of Deep Impact’s fortunes, but, here he is, a week later, in the first clash of the generations at the top level this season.
And it’s great to see him in the line-up. Having the Guineas winner take on the Derby winner over 10 furlongs in July is a dream scenario for the Eclipse but it doesn’t happen too often.
It did happen in 1910 when the Guineas winner Neil Gow dead-heated with the Derby winner Lemburg for first, so Masar v Saxon Warrior cannot be any closer than that.
But if Saxon Warrior is to put it up to this year’s Epsom winner he has to put his last two performances behind him. If stamina has been the problem, you could argue he’s actually run well in the Derbies and dropping back in trip could be the catalyst that sparks the Guineas SW back to life.
If that is the case we could be in for an absolute humdinger.
Coral-Eclipse, Sandown 2.10 Saturday, latest Sky Bet odds:
- Masar 7/4
- Roaring Lion 11/4
- Saxon Warrior 11/4
- Happily 8/1
- Forest Ranger 14/1
- Hawkbill 20/1
- Cliffs Of Moher 25/1
- Raymond Tusk 50/1
- Prices correct at 1630 BST 05/07/2018, click here for latest odds
So what’s the stronger form, Saxon Warrior’s Guineas or Masar’s Derby?
There doesn’t look to be much between them.
Racing Post Ratings had Saxon Warrior’s Guineas at 123 and Masar’s Derby the same figure. Timeform rated Masar’s Derby 125 with Saxon’s Guineas just 1lb lower.
The Guineas form looks strong when you consider Masar, Roaring Lion and Expert Eye came out of it and won the Derby, Dante and Jersey Stakes respectively, while Kew Gardens came out of the Derby and won at Royal Ascot before Saxon Warrior and Dee Ex Bee let the side down, to an extent, in the Irish equivalent.
It all points to there not being an awful lot between the best of Masar and the best of Saxon Warrior. We can only hope they are both at their best this weekend.
Masar, with 35 days off between the Eclipse and the Derby, has probably had the more ideal preparation. But O’Brien has had a beaten Derby horse win the Eclipse before, with Hawk Wing in 2002, while Oratorio bounced back from defeats in the Guineas, Irish Guineas, Derby and St James’s Palace Stakes when landing the 2005 Eclipse by half-a-length from Epsom hero Motivator.
It’s no surprise that the master of Coolmore has previous for this sort of thing. But Charlie Appleby has landed some heavyweight blows of his own the last few years including when Godolphin’s Hawkbill beat O’Brien’s The Gurkha in this race in 2016.
It’s just fantastic that we’re all set for another clash between two of racing’s super powers.
Roaring Lion is 3-0 down to Masar in their head-to-heads, can he make it 3-1 at Sandown?
Not only do we have the Guineas and Derby winners but we have the impressive Dante Stakes victor, Roaring Lion, too. Could he be the one to prevail now he tackles his Classic conquerors over a mile and a quarter?
Well beaten by Masar in the Craven Stakes when not at his best, Roaring Lion got much closer in the Guineas and wasn't far behind him in the Derby, either, despite shaping like a non stayer at Epsom.
Travelling equally as well as Masar two out, the Godolphin charge had a couple of lengths on him at that point and it was the same at the line, but the pleasing aspect for Roaring Lion’s connections was that he didn’t hang to his left under pressure like he had in many of his previous efforts.
If Gosden has ironed out that kink then Roaring Lion is a big player on Saturday. His best form may not match the best of Masar and Saxon Warrior, but he’s not far behind and this trip, as he more than hinted at York, could bring out the very best in him.
Can Happily become the first filly to win the Eclipse since Kooyonga in 1992?
No three-year-old filly has ever won the Eclipse and none have even attempted to do so since Germany’s Tryphosa, who was last in 1995. Pebbles (1985) and Kooyonga (1992) are the only fillies ever to have won the race.
Happily, twice a winner at the top level as a two-year-old, looked like she’d add to that haul at three and she might well yet, even if things haven’t quite happened for her so far this season.
At two she beat Masar in the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Chantilly but that was on soft ground and that’s perhaps what she needs to get her head in front at the top level this campaign.
She’s run respectable races in the Guineas, Irish Guineas and French Oaks and she certainly got the 10-furlong trip well in France, running on strongly to be a half-length fourth to Laurens.
On soft, she’d have to come into consideration. But with the hot summer showing no signs of abating and the ground riding quick all over the place, it looks like this Ballydoyle inmate looks set for a bit-part role in a vintage renewal.
Is Forest Ranger the best of the older horses and could he scupper the three-year-old challenge?
Okay, I say vintage, but that’s with a talented posse of three-year-olds in mind. If you’re being dead picky, and I have become a bit irritable in the heat, then it’s the lack of a really top-class older horse to test this bunch of wannabees.
With the 10lb weight-for-age allowance in mind, it’s really hard to see Forest Ranger, Cliffs Of Moher or Hawkbill giving weight and a beating to the big three.
And though the market says he is the best of the older horses, I’m not sure Forest Ranger deserves that mantle even if he does have a couple of ones next to his name.
He’s improved this year and Richard Fahey is doing a superb job with him, but I’m not sure he envisaged the Eclipse being as hot as this when he first pencilled in the task for this gelded son of Lawman.
He deserves to take his chance after winning a Group 3 and a Group 2 earlier this campaign, but it was a weak renewal of the Huxley Stakes and Cliffs Of Moher arguably achieved as much when winning the Mooresbridge, or even in defeat at the Curragh and at Ascot.
But on all known form the best of the older horses is Hawkbill, a dual Group One winner, including in this race two years ago.
Granted, he hasn’t been at his best since returning from Dubai, but he ruined his chance before the start at Royal Ascot when boiling over and becoming a sweaty mess (again, much like me in this heat).
Where’s the pace going to come from?
Hawkbill hasn’t been able to get to the lead on his last two starts but he usually front runs and he’s definitely at his best when able to dominate, like he did at Newmarket last year in the Princess of Wales’s and at Meydan in the Sheema Classic.
Whether he’ll be able to front run here is another matter, as Forest Ranger likes to go forward as well while the rank outsider, Raymond Tusk, tried to make all in a novice race on Newmarket’s July Course last month.
It’s unlikely to get messy, then, especially considering a forceful ride on Hawkbill could well be of a major benefit to stablemate Masar.
With the dead eight in mind, what should value seeking each-way thieves be looking at?
You’re probably banking on one or more of the big three not running to their best and for straw clutchers out there you could conclude this will come too quick for Saxon Warrior, Masar might not be as effective at the trip and Roaring Lion could become wayward again.
The one that I’m half tempted by at 33s each-way is Hawkbill, as at his very best he has a winning chance, he could get the run of the race out in front if not pressured by Forest Ranger and he likes this track having won the race two years ago.
Ideally he’d want softer ground at this trip, but he’s run good races on faster conditions and, if they can keep the lid on him pre-race this time, he could hold onto a place if one of the big three don’t perform for whatever reason.
And with him bound to finish fourth, what wins this epic battle for the Coral-Eclipse?
The more I look at Saxon Warrior’s surprise inclusion the more I like him, but he appeared to have no excuses in last week’s Irish Derby and when it comes down to it I just can’t back him, even though there’s a chance 10 furlongs could be his optimum trip.
Masar is the right favourite but I’m not sure he’ll be 4-0 up on ROARING LION come 2.15 on Saturday so I’ll take John Gosden’s Kitten’s Joy colt to reverse Derby form with Appleby’s charge.
He ran straight and true at Epsom but didn’t seem to stay the trip and returning to 10 furlongs is likely to bring out the very best in him. Learning and improving with each run, he doesn't have much to find with Masar and Saturday's trip and conditions can help him reverse the form.
He’ll love the fast ground and can travel the best off a strong gallop before Oisin Murphy presses the button a furlong from home, seeing off Masar, Saxon Warrior and the brave Hawkbill in a tremendous finish.
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