Our columnist looks ahead of the big Christmas action and has tips for the Coral Welsh National and Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.
Coral Welsh Grand National preview
It feels like we are in limbo once again as we approach Christmas with the possibility of more Covid restrictions coming in.
Chepstow racecourse are already having to deal with the reality of another Coral Welsh Grand National being run behind closed doors with changes being made from December 26 in Wales. For those of you that were looking forward to being at Chepstow on the 27th I really feel for you. Hopefully, our coverage on Sky Sports Racing will suffice and I’ll be there with a top team for the whole day, but it won’t be the same without that wonderful Welsh crowd to lift the atmosphere.
This has been a magnificent race over the years with some wonderful winners and has also been the springboard to future prestigious performances, with a number of those Chepstow heroes going on to win Grand Nationals and Gold Cups.
So, who wins this year’s marathon handicap then?
It’s shaping up to be a cracking contest and that was boosted with the news that 2016 winner Native River is due to take his place in the line-up once again, five years after carrying top weight to victory as a fresh faced six-year-old. He was rated 155 in those days and now is a whopping 166, so it would be some achievement if he could pull it off again.
Sadly, as he approaches his 12th birthday, I think it’s unlikely, despite him retaining plenty of ability and enthusiasm. His presence puts last year’s winner Secret Reprieve bang on ten stone and he’s just 6lbs higher in the handicap than when successful 12 months ago. He is Sky Bet’s 9/2 favourite, so I’m not telling you anything you don’t know here, but he should run an almighty race.
His trainer Evan Williams has been a handler to follow in the big Saturday races recently, but this horse has had a different preparation this time around and he comes here without seeing a racecourse in anger since his win last January. Can he emulate Bonanza Boy who won back-to-back runnings in 1988/89? I think he can and has an obvious chance.
Potters Corner is bidding to emulate Mountainous who won non-consecutive renewals of this race in 2013 and 2015. His win in 2019 took the roof off the place owing to the fact he was the first Welsh-trained horse to win their most prestigious contest for 54 years. Of course, Secret Reprieve’s win last year meant the wait for another wasn’t quite as long!
At 16/1 he could offer some each-way value after an improved effort when just touched off in a cross-country race at Cheltenham last time out. He’s slid down the weights since his win two years ago.
Hold That Taught also hails from an in-form yard. Venetia Williams has really hit top gear recently and she knows exactly what it takes to win this having done so in 2000 with Jocks Cross and again in 2014 with Emperor’s Choice. Hold That Taught has always shaped like a promising staying chaser and was an expensive purchase a couple of years ago.
Things are coming together for him now as he approaches his seventh birthday and there should be more to come with this further step up in trip. I like him and he’s 7/1 at the time of writing.
I Will Do It is another Welsh trained runner and would be a popular winner for Sam Thomas whose horses have been running well all season. Like Secret Reprieve last year, he won the Welsh National Trial and will try and go on to win the big one three weeks later under a small penalty. He’s 12/1 with Sky Bet. 30 horses have been confirmed for the race, only 20 can line-up. Secret Reprieve has a favourite's chance and I also really like the claims of Hold That Taught.
Kempton Boxing Day preview
Let’s wind the clock back 24 hours for the superb racing on Boxing Day when Kempton stage the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.
Last year’s winner Frodon started his season with a bang by winning a Grade 1 at Down Royal on his reappearance. His trainer Paul Nicholls also saddles dual winner Clan Des Obeaux, who could only finish third to Frodon last year.
He hasn’t had a run going into the contest this time round, but that doesn’t concern me. He’s 11/4 joint favourite with Sky Bet alongside Gold Cup winner Minella Indo who will be a popular choice amongst punters with Rachael Blackmore in the saddle. I’ve fancied Lostintranslation for the past two renewals of this, but he’s pulled up both times having burst a blood vessel.
It’s been well documented that his stable have put those troubles behind them now and he looked incredible when winning at Ascot last time out (see the FREE replay in full below).
He’s 9/1 with Sky Bet and I’m tempted to go in one last time and hope he makes it third time lucky!
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Away from those two feature contests I can’t wait to see the clash between Bravesmansgame and Ahoy Senor in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase if they both turn up. Both horses are six years old, and both have looked serious talents to date.
At the time of writing Bravemansgame is 5/6 favourite and Ahoy Senor is 5/4. Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore are getting understandably excited about their Newbury winner and whilst it’s tough to separate them, I’m hoping the long journey from Scotland pays off and they take a Grade 1 winner home with them. I loved the fact that when Ahoy Senor ran at Newbury Lucinda and Scu drove down in their motorhome and stayed over at the racecourse. Kindred spirits!
For racing fans there is a plethora of action to look forward to on the box over the Christmas break which should be a welcome distraction in these tough times. So, whatever you are doing this festive period, I wish you a peaceful and enjoyable time. I’m clocking off now to enjoy a few days of downtime to ensure I’m firing on all cylinders for you on the 27th. Hopefully you’ll join me and the gang then.
Sending love to all of you that regularly read this blog; I love hearing from you all on social media. Happy Christmas.
