- Matt tipped Grand National winner Noble Yeats at 50/1 to help take his 2022 tally to +110 points to recommended stakes so far in 2022
- He also recommended 11/1 Newmarket winner Living Legend last Friday and tipped 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus in his Antepost Value Bet column
Value Bet tips: Thursday May 5
1pt win Count D’orsay in 1.30 Chester at 12/1 (General)
1pt win My Little Tip in 2.05 Chester at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Mandoob in 3.10 Chester at 12/1 (NON-RUNNER)
1pt win The Kodi Kid in 3.40 Chester at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Oppose Albaflora with unexposed rival
Day two of the Boodles May Festival and the betting opportunities look a little more rewarding than the opening afternoon.
The Homeserve Dee Stakes isn’t among the most enticing on offer despite the fact a case can be made for likely outsider of the party Mr McCann. He was fairly exposed at two but signed off on the right note and will no doubt have been trained for this for some time, so I certainly wouldn’t expect him to rock up a gallop short as the only one in the field not to have appeared on track already this season.
It’s trappy enough and I can leave the race alone, though, instead preferring to have a pop at the other feature pattern race on the card – the tote.co.uk Proud To Support Chester Racecourse Ormonde Stakes, in which getting Albaflora beaten admittedly looks challenging, on paper at least.
She does tend to find a way of finishing second, though, and may just prefer a galloping track having been well beaten at Epsom and Goodwood last summer which is off-putting at skinny odds, while quite a few of these look more back-end types who are unlikely to be fully tuned up just yet.
Thunderous is interesting on second start back but given his record at York – and the fact he’s already high enough in the weights – I do wonder if he’s already a bit of an Ebor project, so will instead roll the dice with MANDOOB for Brian Meehan.
Less exposed than anything else in the line-up following four career outings, he was forming an attractive profile last year before presumably suffering a setback following his second to Yibir in the Bahrain Trophy. He subsequently spent almost three months off the track before resuming with a tame run in the Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot, but I’m willing to forgive him that.
The well-bred son of Farhh returns after a wind op with the yard among the winners (also had a 16/1 second and perfectly respectable 25/1 fourth as well) and Meehan’s recent Chester record is quite encouraging with two winners, a second and two thirds from just 11 runners here over the past five seasons.
This horse has been kept in the stable following the Shadwell dispersal and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started fulfilling some of his early potential straight away this term with underfoot conditions looking suitable.
Count on Easterby in sprint handicap
The little bit of juice in the ground will play to the strengths of COUNT D’ORSAY and he looks a great bet to go one place better than last year in the ICM Stellar Sports Handicap.
He was the only one to make up ground from the back of the field when ultimately staying on for second behind Jacbbarockie, who made all, in this race 12 months ago and surprisingly he ended up going winless throughout the whole 2021 campaign (15 starts in total).
That unfortunate sequence did include several excellent efforts in defeat, though, not least when third to Hurricane Ivor in the Portland at Doncaster, and having been dropped another pound for what was in fact an encouraging comeback fourth behind Rayong at Pontefract last month, he's on a handy mark (94) again.
He’ll improve for his recent pipe-opener as most of Tim Easterby’s do (Count D’Orsay was beaten 15 lengths first time out last April before coming here) and I suspect connections were reasonably happy to swallow the wide draw as there is so much pace drawn on the inside that they’ll surely be coming back to the closers when it matters most.
Tip among Boughey's heroes?
The extended seven-furlong Deepbridge Handicap is another race going to be run at a frenetic pace and I can gloss over the high enough draw (8) for MY LITTLE TIP here too.
He was never going to feature in the finish after proving way too gassy in the early stages at Newbury on his return from 211 days away on April 17 but this turning track can really help those with keen-going tendencies and I reckon he’s worth another chance off his mark of 92.
He’s obviously got way more on his hands than when starting out in handicaps from a lowly 68 last August but he swiftly went through the ranks and still looked a bit of a work in progress when landing skinny odds to bring up the hat-trick at Catterick in September.
I certainly don’t subscribe to the theory he was just a nippy two-year-old and fully anticipate Classic-winning George Boughey to eke a little more out of the Belardo colt this year.
Chester challenge to reignite the fire
Charlie Fellowes is another young Newmarket trainer who has been making waves for several seasons now, though he’s never had a winner at Chester before (0-19, one second). Perhaps that can all change courtesy of THE KODI KID in the Boodles Raindance Handicap.
Unlike his current handler, The Kodi Kid does have winning form around this unique track during his time with Andrew Balding and it could just be that this place lights him up again as he twice performed pretty well from a mark of 87 here in September/October last year before being put away for the winter.
The comeback run at Newbury – when sent off 40/1 over a mile - was forgettable but he’s been dropped to 85 as a result and the course configuration there is obviously a world away from the pressure-cooker, always-turning set-up at the Roodee.
The move up to 10 furlongs is a risky one and probably accounts for much of his huge price given he’s by Kodi Bear (predictably), but there is a bit of middle-distance form on the dam’s side of his pedigree and the way he finished over the extended seven furlongs here on October 2 (replay below) suggests he might just be crying out for more of a test.
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Owner Paul Wildes evidently likes having runners at Chester having enjoyed more winners here (seven) than any other track over the years, and – yet again – I can take my wide draw medicine given the really strong pace forecast through the likes of Fairmac, Pride Of America, Enfranchise, Desert Emperor and Diderot.
With a bit of luck that might just tee things up for this occasionally quirky customer housed out in stall 11.
Published at 1545 BST on 04/05/22
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