Cheltenham tips and analysis: Preview for day two of Showcase Meeting

By Ed Watson

Horse Racing

Sat October 28, 2023 · 2y ago

Scottish Sun columnist and Racing TV analyst Ed Watson who tipped 9/2 Friday winner Lookaway now casts his eye over Saturday's action.

ROYALE MARGAUX (1.15)

Are you feeling lucky, punk? The immortal words of Dirty Harry, no less. Either that, or I’m feeling particularly rash by firing a 33/1 bullet for my opening salvo of the day.

Not for the first might I find myself howling up the wrong tree like the local park drunk under the cover of a full moon. Not when there are far more obvious starting points to this £60,000 handicap chase like the two runners who head the weights in Turners runner-up Notlongtillmay and last season’s Red Rum winner Dancing On My Own.

Then there’s Haddex Des Obeaux, who was last seen dotting up in a heavy-ground Warwick handicap in January against three rivals who all won next time out. He’s a fascinating contender here for many reasons. Not least because, along with Notlongtillmay and the hat-trick-seeking Guy, he’s almost certain to ensure this is a run at a brisk pace from flag fall.

Which brings me to the pint-sized Royal Margaux, who looks the type to thrive under this scenario off a low weight. Admittedly, she’s yet to win in four runs since joining Tom Symonds from France, but she underwent wind surgery after the first of those and was pulled up in an attritional Imperial Cup back over hurdles on her first run back from that op.

Cheltenham Showcase Selections

However, her final two runs of last season gave a glimpse into why she racked up seven wins (five over hurdles, two over fences) from just 12 starts for David Cottin. Both at Ascot, when fourth to Black Gerry, and then over Cheltenham’s New Course when runner-up to Pink Legend, Royal Margaux absolutely tanked into contention. She looked the likely winner on each occasion, only to find herself picked off late on.

Her ability to see things out remains a nagging doubt, but Symonds has now had a whole summer to work his magic with Margaux, and it may well be that she’s able to kick on this season having had a full British summer to acclimatise to her new surroundings.

At what appears to be an overly-inflated price, I don’t have to dig too deep into my pockets to put my money where my mouth is and take a punt on finding out.

The Inside Word: “It’s taken a bit of time for us to get to know her, especially as we got her halfway through last season. What I think she needed was a complete break, which she’s now had. She was much more tractable on her last two runs, which wasn’t always the case in France. And we probably got to the front too soon against Pink Legend last time. There’s no shortage of pace in this race, so this looks to be the day to let her get towed along for as long as we can. I’m under no illusions about how competitive this race is. It’s a big ask first time up, but she hasn’t missed a day’s work and I’m hopeful she’ll run well.” - Tom Symonds, trainer

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/shop/horses-to-follow?utm_source=SL&utm_medium=article&utm_id=HTFsl_hero&utm_content=in_article_hero

BLUEKING D'OROUX (1.50)

Tiger Roll had an official rating of 150 when he won this four-year-old hurdle in 2014. Pied Piper, Quel Destin, Sametegal and Devilment were all 140s performers. In fact, only one winner in the last decade - the 133-rated Pearl Of The West - hasn’t been rated at least 138. Which gives us a fair idea of what it usually takes to win this race. And I repeat usually.

Blueking D’Oroux now has a BHA mark of 138 following vastly-improved, post wind-op performances in the spring - at Ascot and then when second in a big handicap at Aintree - on his final two starts of a bust-then-boom first season with Paul Nicholls.

It’s one that gives him a 9lb cushion over his main rival, the admittedly progressive Spirit D’Aunou; yet there’s barely been half-a-point separating them at the head of the market, and then it’s double-digit odds about the other half-dozen runners.

We’re told value can be found in all shapes at sizes. So while hardly a leftfield selection, I’m inclined to think anything around the current 6/4 is a more-than-fair price in what looks a distinctly thin renewal based on recent history.

The Inside Word: “His first two starts for us had me tearing my hair out but he turned inside out after a wind op mid season and surprised us by winning a competitive handicap at Ascot at 50-1, beating his more fancied stable mate Afadil. Twelve days later he ran his best race to date under a 7lbs penalty against older horses in another hot race at Aintree where he was arguably in front too soon. I hope there is more to come from Blueking d’Oroux who is the top rated horse in this race." - Paul Nicholls, trainer (courtesy of Betfair)

HUGOS NEW HORSE (3.00)

I’ve no idea who Hugo’s old horse was. Or if Hugo knows that he now has a new one. Perhaps he will if he reads this. Or better still, he will if Hugos New Horse hoses up in the first of this season’s 17 qualifiers for the Pertemps Final in March.

Whether this rangy type will still be plying his trade over timber by then remains to be seen. As a half-brother to Black Corton, it’s a sure bet Paul Nicholls will send this boy over fences sooner rather than later. That said, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t climb another notch or two up the hurdling ladder before then.

Last season saw him go four from five in handicaps, his sole defeat coming when a creditable third in deep ground for Sandown’s EBF Final, after which Nicholls revealed he’d suffered a minor setback only 10 days beforehand.

Stepping up to 2m4f triggered a jolt of improvement then and, given how strongly he came home from the last flight on his final start of the campaign at Ayr in April, I expect the move up to 3m now to do the same this time around. Another summer on his back won’t have done this gangly teenager-type any harm either.

On a tricky day when potential landmines are scattered everywhere for handicap punters, Hugos New Horse strikes me as one of the more appealing win plays at an each-way price.

The Inside Word: “He was highly progressive last season, winning five times and now starts the new campaign off a mark of 132. He is likely to go chasing sooner rather than later but first I want to give him the chance to see if has the scope to develop into a smart staying hurdler as I think the step up to almost three miles should not be a problem for him. The trip could even bring out plenty more improvement from him and he is fit and well." - Paul Nicholls, trainer (courtesy of Betfair)

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