Cheltenham Gold Cup tips: Can Festival hero Minella Indo get back to his best for Henry De Bromhead?
By Donn McClean
16:51 · TUE March 22, 2022
Minella Indo was beaten in the King George, and A Plus Tard was beaten in the Savills Chase and, in the space of 48 hours, the Gold Cup market was thrown into flux.
Tornado Flyer won the King George and Galvin won the Savills Chase, and they both parachuted onto the Gold Cup scene from left-field and the bleachers respectively. Then Al Boum Photo did what Al Boum Photo always does and won the (other) Savills Chase at Tramore, and the reality dawned that you had to consider the dual Gold Cup winner as a live candidate again.
The stats are all against Al Boum Photo. He is 10 now, and still no 10-year-old has won the Gold Cup since Cool Dawn won it in 1998. That’s 24 years ago now.
Also, only Best Mate has won the Gold Cup three times since Arkle, and no horse has won it twice, lost it, then won it again. That said, Al Boum Photo is an unusual 10-year-old, in that he has raced just 15 times over fences. He couldn't do much more than he did at Tramore (replay in full below), and Willie Mullins seems to think that he has him back as well as he has ever had him.
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Why is A Plus Tard favourite for the Gold Cup?
You can understand why A Plus Tard still sits on top of the market. He was only beaten a short head by Galvin in the Savills Chase, and that was after making his ground from the rear and looking set for victory – he traded at 1.08 in-running on the Betfair Exchange – when he hit the front on the run to the final fence. Runner-up in the race last year, he is still only eight and he remains a big player.
You have to consider Galvin now too. Winner of the National Hunt Chase at last year’s Festival, and second in the novices’ handicap chase in 2020, he was beaten by Frodon in the Champion Chase at Down Royal in October. But he put up a career-best in the Savills Chase, staying on strongly under a superb ride by Davy Russell, and it is probable that the extra two and a half furlongs of the Gold Cup will see him step forward again.
Who offers the best value for Cheltenham?
But the value of the race now may be the 8/1 that is on offer about Minella Indo.
Of course, he was disappointing in the King George, but there was mitigation. You can understand why connections had a go at the King George, because Minella Indo does not lack pace. They couldn’t go fast enough for him in the 2019 Albert Bartlett Hurdle, in which he was keen until they ran down the hill to the second last flight, and he matched strides with Allaho in the 2020 RSA Chase before they were both mugged by Champ.
But both of those races were at Cheltenham and, as it transpired, he didn’t pass the test that the King George at Kempton presented. Fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, he was prominent from early, up with a fast pace. He matched strides with Frodon over the first two fences, the pair of them establishing a clear break between themselves and their rivals, before he settled in behind him after they jumped the third fence.
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He challenged Frodon for the lead again, he got up on the inside as they raced away from the stands with a circuit to go but, again, he ceded the lead to Paul Nicholls’ horse on the run to the first fence on the final circuit, and he started to struggle after that. Ridden along at the end of the back straight, he dropped to last and was pulled up before the third last fence.
It may be that something was amiss, and trainer Henry de Bromhead did say that he was quite tucked up and tightened up when he got home. Or it may be that he just wasn’t suited by Kempton, right-handed and flat, which is very different to Cheltenham, left-handed and undulating.
History is littered with King George winners who couldn’t win a Gold Cup (Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, Clan Des Obeaux, Frodon in the last 10 years), and with Gold Cup winners who never won a King George.
For whatever reason, we know that we didn’t see the real Minella Indo at Kempton. As importantly, we know that he loves Cheltenham, the Cheltenham Festival. In three runs there, he has won an Albert Bartlett Hurdle and a Gold Cup, and finished second in an RSA Chase, in a race in which you can easily argue that he was the best horse.
Remember, the road to Cheltenham Gold Cup victory last season was not without its bumps for Barry Maloney’s horse. After winning at Wexford and at Navan, he fell in the Savills Chase and he could only finish fourth in the Irish Gold Cup. A 10/1 shot for the Gold Cup at the start of the season, he was allowed go off at 9/1 on the day on the back off an unimpressive lead into the race. It could be a similar story this season.
The other thing worth considering is that Henry de Bromhead’s horse appears to be a better performer in the spring than he is in the winter. His record in December, January and February over obstacles reads 321F4P, while his record in March, April and May reads 1121.
Two Gold Cups... it can be done
There are two main imponderables. Firstly and obviously, he needs to bounce back from that disappointing run in the King George. But De Bromhead is a top-class trainer who knows Minella Indo intimately, and there are 82 days between the King George and the Gold Cup. There is every chance that that will be sufficient time for his trainer to have him at concert pitch again on March 18.
And secondly, history tells you that it is not easy to win back-to-back Gold Cups. But Al Boum Photo did it in 2019 and 2020, and Denman went close, and Long Run went close, and Kauto Star won two, even though they weren’t back-to-back, and Djakadam finished second twice, and Native River finished third in 2017 before winning it in 2018. It is not easy, but it is not impossible either.
On the positive side, not only did Minella Indo win the Gold Cup last year, but he travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out, and he appeared to win with more in hand than the one-and-a-quarter-length winning margin, from his top-class stable companion A Plus Tard, with hat-trick bidder Al Boum Photo four lengths back in third and the three of them clear.
It was a fantastic performance by a hugely talented horse who has class and pace and stamina, and who loves the track and who is at his best at that time of year. The positives outweigh the negatives, and suggest that he is over-priced at 8/1.
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