Timeform highlight the key trends to keep in mind for the Sporting Life Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Sporting Life Arkle
14:10 Cheltenham, Tuesday
The majority of the Arkle contenders have an unconvincing profile in terms of meeting the criteria established by past winners but the two big exceptions are El Fabiolo (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 179p) and Jonbon (177p), also the pair who are hard to split at the head of the market.
They’re among four entries who ran to a Timeform rating of 145 or more over hurdles, but, more importantly, of that quartet they’re the only two who have gone on to reach the required level over fences of gaining an adjusted Timeform rating of 170 or more, something which eight of the last ten Arkle winners had achieved.
Unlike Jonbon, who was second to his brilliant stablemate Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme, El Fabiolo doesn’t have a previous Festival win or place to his name but given he’d run only twice in his life by Cheltenham last year and only once for Willie Mullins, it’s understandable he wasn’t pitched into the Festival at that stage of his career.
On the other hand, he did run very well in Grade 1 company at Aintree three weeks later, going down by a neck to none other than Jonbon in the Top Novices’ Hurdle. Both are unbeaten since over fences, though left contrasting impressions from their latest runs, Jonbon only workmanlike against his sole rival at Warwick but El Fabiolo impressive in dismissing a far stronger field at Leopardstown.
Of the rest, El Fabiolo’s stablemates Dysart Dynamo (169+) and Saint Roi (168p) were the other two to be rated over 145 over hurdles and only narrowly fail to earn another tick from their current chase ratings. Banbridge (169) is another who just misses out for the same reason, though all three of those were found wanting against El Fabiolo last time, Saint Roi unseating before halfway.
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