Timeform's Graeme North delivers his overview of the week ahead of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival.
For this week’s column I’ve been asked to look ahead to Cheltenham from a timefigure perspective with this being the final one ahead of the Festival, so I’ll run through as many races as I can picking out one or more horses of interest on the clock.
It shouldn’t be assumed that any horses mentioned are selections for the races in question, but anyone wanting daily timefigure previews will find them on timeform.com next week once the final declarations are known.
Before I dive into timefigures, one fascinating aspect that will play out next week in the handicaps is how the British-trained runners will fare in comparison with the Irish raiders.
It’s been well publicised that the BHA have tried to engender a more level playing field by dropping older domestic runners in particular a bit more quickly and wins lately by the likes of Cap Du Nord and Dolos after coming down a long way down the weights seem to have raised hopes that British-trained runners will be more competitive at Cheltenham this year.
To me that seems a bad read, as it overlooks the fact those wins were gained against domestic competition and not in the far more competitive Festival arena. It seems to me that beyond issues of handicapping, the Irish have been dominant in handicaps because, as a group, they are targeting Cheltenham with a younger less exposed group of horses.
Over the last five Festivals, ignoring the Boodles where all the horses are four-year-oldss, Irish runners in handicaps have been getting on for 0.5 years younger than their British counterparts. That situation looks set to play out again this season looking at the entries, with the one exception being the Grand Annual where, for once, the home-trained contingent are a much younger group than the Irish, so I’d be surprised if the Irish aren’t dominant in the handicaps again.
That’s not to say any of the horses highlighted below fulfil that criteria, but it’s something worth bearing in mind next week when analysing the handicaps.
For all that the Gold Cup is the race around which the meeting revolves, the first day of the Festival is often the more looked forward-to day with the Supreme and Arkle kick-starting the meeting before the Champion Hurdle kicks in.
Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard have posted the best timefigures (150) in the Supreme, ahead of Mighty Potter (145), though Constitution Hill (142) is right up there with the headline Irish pair once sectional upgrades are incorporated.
Edwardstone leads the way in the Arkle with three 160 timefigures. Alan ‘hopefully we aren’t as bad as Henrietta thinks we are’ King hasn’t had much success at recent Festivals, but he has won the Arkle before with a horse (Voy Por Ustedes) whose path to Cheltenham wasn’t dissimilar to Edwardstone’s.
Blue Lord (158) and Third Time Lucki (154) come next, though Riviere d’Etel (151) enters calculations once her 7lb mares' allowance is included.
Unsurprisingly Honeysuckle (161) is well clear in the Champion Hurdle even without her allowance, though she might have a battle on her hands if Teahupoo (159) steps up on his latest Red Mills win and Appreciate It (157) returns a better horse than running away with the Supreme year.
If Echoes In Rain (151) can transfer her two-mile form to two-and-a-half miles she might have too much in hand (5lb clear) for her rivals in the Mares’ Hurdle, while there is virtually nothing to choose between Run Wild Fred (154), Farouk D’Alene (153) and Stattler (153) in the National Hunt Chase.
Frodon’s likely participation in the Ultima makes Fusil Raffles potentially the best treated on the clock among those likely to get a run but he’s not a horse I have much time for; Graystone emerges best of those likely to run in the Boodles but front-runners don’t have a good record in the race.
Energumene (177) missed last year’s Festival because of lameness and had another scare last week but thankfully seems to be on the mend ahead of his return meeting with Shishkin (177) in Wednesday’s feature, the Queen Mother Champion Chase, in which Chacun Pour Soi (176) will also have a say if he finally brings his ‘A-game’ to England.
I’ve heard it said that Shishkin is the stronger stayer, and you need to stay well to win the Champion Chase, but Energumene has always struck me as a strong stayer too at the minimum trip and the sharp nature of the Old Course might suit him better than Shishkin who had little to beat as things turned out last year in the Arkle and only got up in the last stride in the Supreme the year.
Galopin the banker?
Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard and Mighty Potter lead the way in the Baring Bingham, with North Lodge (142) the best of those not also engaged in the Supreme.
Galopin Des Champs is out on his own in the Brown Advisory and would be my idea of the banker of meeting for all Bob Olinger (159) and Bravemansgame (158) don’t have much to find, though the addition of Ahoy Senor (151) to the likely starting line-up adds a bit of spice.
American Mike (115) missed the Dublin Racing Festival but looks a good alternative to ante-post favourite Facile Vega in the Champion Bumper.
In the handicaps Ballyandy comes out best of the clock of those likely to get a run in the Coral Cup but he would make much more appeal in the Pertemps.
On the contrary Brave Seasca has just the right profile for the Grand Annual and has an excellent chance on time on the back of his effort behind Edwardstone in the Kingmaker at Warwick.
The feature of the third day is supposedly the Stayers’ Hurdle but with one of Timeform’s highest-rated chasers Allaho lining up to defend his crown in the Ryanair, the ‘intermediate’ Gold Cup is arguably the real highpoint.
It’s hard to see what will give Allaho (179) a race in the Ryanair given his nearest opponents on the clock seem likely to run elsewhere, but the Stayers' Hurdle looks an open race with any number in with a chance.
Reigning champion Flooring Porter heads the field with a 163 timefigure and his supporters will be pleased to have seen trainer Gavin Cromwell send out four winners last weekend.
Champ (156) is probably the most talented horse in the field, at least over fences, and will be suited if the race turns into a sprint, whereas Klassical Dream (160) and more particularly Paisley Park (158) will be better served by more of a test of stamina.
Imperical Alcazar (154) and L’Homme Presse (153) are the only novice chasers not yet mentioned who could step up in the Turners if one or more of the market leaders don’t run their race, while Lunar Display (133) comes out best on the clock in the Dawn Run. Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps, Spiritofthegames in the Plate and Undersupervision in the Kim Muir all take the eye on the clock in their respective handicaps.
With Allaho likely to head for the Ryanair, last year’s one-two and stable-companions Minella Indo (172) and A Plus Tard (171) head the ratings in the Gold Cup, though Minella Indo has been a bit underwhelming this year and last year’s runner-up looks a fair bet to reverse placings this year with up-and-comers Galvin and Protektorat still to post a fast timefigure.
Mount Ida (147) might be a more reliable proposition than Put The Kettle On (154) in the Mares’ Chase, while Cat Tiger (137) and not his more high-profile stable-companion Bob And Co (124) might be the one in the Hunters over Billaway and Pont Aven (both 133).
Knight tops Triumph figures
The slightly maligned Knight Salute tops the ratings in the Triumph (130) narrowly from Doctor Parnassus (128), though Pied Piper would have topped the list comfortably had ben been ridden out instead of coasting home at Cheltenham in January.
Hillcrest (142) sets the standard in the Albert Bartlett but his participation is still in doubt in which case Ginto (141) and Minella Cocooner (141) might be the ones to concentrate on. Good each-way claims can be made on the clock for Tritonic (sick last year when well beaten in the Triumph) in the County and Christopher Wood in the Martin Pipe.
Anyone who continues to believe that sectionals are less than useful in race result analysis – and there are still plenty of them, believe me – might wish to explain how the market got the 4.55 at Southwell last Thursday evening so wrong.
The betting revolved around two Godolphin stable-companions Colourful Dream and After The Rain who had contested the same race at Newcastle the previous month when After The Rain had finished second and Colourful Dream third with only a head separating them at level weights.
Traditional handicapping methods, which some still practice today, would have had After The Rain coming out marginally the better horse, and seeing as that Newcastle run was her first whereas Colourful Dream had already had run once before it might seem at first glance that After The Rain would be likely to confirm the form.
Anyone paying attention to the sectionals, however, would have been in no doubt Colourful Dream had been by far the best horse in that Newcastle contest. Run at a strong pace into a tough headwind, it produced a race-finishing speed of 94% from the 3f marker that would have been even lower had the 2f marker been used.
What those finishing speeds tell us is that those horses that forced the pace - and Colourful Dream cut out the running – can be marked up considerably in comparison with those that were ridden further back, who included the 50/1 winner Chris Fairhurst trained newcomer Hezmie. By Timeform’s calculations, Colorful Dream was entitled to a 6lb higher upgrade than After The Rain after doing too much too soon on her first start for 6 months following a breathing operation.
Perhaps the booking of Daniel Muscutt, having his first ride for Godolphin, made it seem as if Colourful Dream (Hollie Doyle) was the second string, but the sectionals couldn’t have pointed more obviously to the probable winner as Timeform ratings for the race made clear.
