Cheltenham Festival: Question Time | Ben Linfoot on the pre-Festival posers
Our Ben Linfoot tries to answer some of the key questions heading into the 2019 Cheltenham Festival, and he finishes with a tasty each-way double tip in the Coral Cup and County Hurdle.
How do you see the Unibet Champion Hurdle shaping up?
It’s almost here. And when the Cheltenham Festival does start on Tuesday, March 12, it begins with a real bang.
The day one feature, the Unibet Champion Hurdle, is shaping up to be a proper horse race. It’s Buveur D’Air v Apple’s Jade, but it’s also England v Ireland, Nicky Henderson v Gordon Elliott, JP v Gigginstown.
Crucially, though, it’s gelding v mare. And the 7lb sex allowance that Apple’s Jade receives could be the defining factor in this tantalising smash up.
Last season she was beaten at the Cheltenham Festival, in the Mares’ Hurdle. But last season she was in season and this season Elliott reckons he can manage her cycle better.
Four wins, three at Grade One level, by a combined margin of 73 lengths, over trips of two miles, two-and-a-half miles and three miles, are evidence that this mare is better than ever.
You might’ve said the same about Buveur D’Air after his Fighting Fifth win on December 1. A first run since wind surgery, he cruised to victory over Samcro without the handbrake being taken off.
That form took knocks, though, and then Buveur D’Air blotted his copybook when defeated in the Christmas Hurdle by stablemate Verdana Blue. A mistake three out may or may not have contributed to that loss.
His annual Contenders cruise followed and here we are. The Champion Hurdler bids to join an elite club of three-time Champion Hurdle winners currently occupied by Hatton’s Grace, Sir Ken, Persian War, See You Then and Istabraq.
Apple’s Jade stands in his way and tactics could play a big part. She likes to dominate and will have to try and draw the sting out of Buveur D’Air at this trip, but going a stride too quick could play into his hands.
There’s a chance the pair going head to head too far out could bring something else into it, too. In that scenario, one of Willie Mullins’ trio; Laurina, Sharjah or Melon, are likely to be waiting in the wings.
It’s a great horse race and a smashing way to lure people into the Festival. As for a bet, I’d prefer Apple’s Jade of the big two. She’s thriving. If Buveur d’Air can give her half a stone and win, he fully deserves his place in Cheltenham history.
Can record-hunting Altior be beaten in the Champion Chase?
With 17 consecutive wins over jumps under his belt, Altior can match the record set by the mighty Big Buck’s if he wins the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase for a second time next week.
Odds of 2/5 suggest he is expected to win number 18 without fuss and his form this season, in the Tingle Creek, Desert Orchid and Clarence House is significantly better than anything his rivals have managed.
And, let’s be honest, he hasn’t needed to grind into top gear yet.
His rivals are clinging onto that moment in last year’s Champion Chase, just before the home turn, where he looked in trouble. If a slick and quick natural two-miler is in there they might, might, just get him out of his comfort zone again.
But they have to be good enough, as well. And strong enough to see him off up the hill. That horse doesn’t look to exist to be honest, with Min, his closest challenger, already having been beaten by him twice at previous Cheltenham Festivals, including in this race last year.
The novice-chasing Footpad might’ve been that horse. But he hasn’t kicked on this season over two miles and a step up in trip to 2m5f in the Ryanair looks likely for him.
With opposition thin on the ground, the stage is set for Altior. He’s fully expected to join those two-mile legends that have won two of these, most recently Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre.
What scenario wouldn’t suit Stayers’ Hurdle favourite Paisley Park?
The one favourite for the feature races that you wouldn’t have picked at the start of the season is Paisley Park for the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle.
As a novice he was thrashed in the Albert Bartlett but he has improved with every run this season, winning four from four, two of them handicaps off 140 and 147 before his Grade One Long Walk win and Grade Two Cleeve Hurdle victory.
It’s the latter race that marks him out as the one to beat. Unproven at Cheltenham prior to that, he absolutely bolted up by 12 lengths, blowing the best of British out of the water.
With the best of the Irish, Penhill, last year’s winner, ruled out due to a setback, the door is open for Paisley Park to announce himself on the Festival stage in style.
But there are some scenarios that wouldn’t suit Paisley Park, with the pace of the race seemingly absolutely key.
He looks a strong stayer at three miles, but Sam Spinner and Lil Rockerfeller somewhat set things up for him in the Cleeve and, although those two are likely to line up once again, a really strong gallop in this contest is never guaranteed.
Pacey sorts have thrived in this race over the years, and you wouldn’t describe Paisley Park as one of those. Supasundae and Faugheen on the other hand, both Grade One winners over two miles, have that sometimes-required zip for this race.
If it was run at a slower tempo, Paisley Park would be vulnerable. And for that reason alone he doesn’t look the most bombproof of 13/8 shots.
Should Presenting Percy be Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup favourite?
That is a tough one, but there’s certainly no reason to dismiss or disrespect his chance.
The facts are that this horse has had zero races over fences outside of his novice season and that he comes into the Gold Cup on the back of one run over hurdles this campaign.
Even accounting for all of his undoubted potential, to have him ahead of a thriving King George winner and last year’s Gold Cup hero in the betting just seems so wrong.
On the other hand, you can understand why the layers are taking no chances.
He’s won at the Cheltenham Festival the last two years, for starters. His Pertemps cruise off a mark of 146 marked him out as a Grade One winner in-waiting and he duly delivered on that promise 12 months later, in the RSA Chase.
He jumped beautifully that day. He travelled supremely well. He beat Monalee and Elegant Escape by seven and 14 lengths respectively and those two have both franked the form since.
Remember, last year, he had an unusual preparation as well. Fairly conventional novice chases were followed by a 3m5f handicap chase in soft ground, three miles over hurdles in the Galmoy and then 2m4f over fences in the Red Mills.
If Pat Kelly was doing unconventional then, he’s doubled his efforts in that sense this season. Just one run for Presenting Percy, no appearances over fences and a school around Galway the wrong-way round.
If you pinned me down, I would say he’s the most likely Gold Cup winner. But that doesn’t mean he’s a Gold Cup bet. I’m sure I’ll be taking him on with something each-way against him come the day.
Is there a standout candidate in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?
I’m not sure there is. And for that reason, there might well be a bet.
There’s very little between the market principles on form here. Using Racing Post Ratings, the best performances of the leading players are – Al Dancer (152), Fakir D’Oudairies (147), Angels Breath (151), Elixir De Nutz (149), Klassical Dream (144), Aramon (146), Grand Sancy (152), Mister Fisher (142) and Felix Desjy (147).
I could go on, there are more in that bracket, but the point stands that there is no standout candidate.
Al Dancer is favourite, but I worry about him settling. A buzzy sort, the hullaballoo surrounding the first race of the Festival could well affect him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he pulls hard, like he has, to an extent, on his last few starts.
Long-term he could be the best horse in the race, similar sentiments that apply to owner-mate Angels Breath. But I’d question whether he’ll have the speed for a Supreme after a rusty return behind Southfield Stone in the Dovecote.
Certainly, he looks short enough now he’s been backed back into around 5/1 and I’d rather look elsewhere for a wager.
Elixir De Nutz is very solid. He has experience – and plenty of it at Cheltenham, too – while he’s a Grade One winner from which the form is working out very well. He’s slick and quick over his hurdles and he has to come into the equation.
But so does Felix Desjy for Gordon Elliott. Watch how he travelled in last year’s Champion Bumper. Too well, really. He traded at 3.3 in-running on Betfair, but didn’t see it out after not quite settling well enough.
His exuberance led to him being held up over hurdles this season, but it didn’t really suit him and he was too keen when second to Salsaretta on Boxing Day.
A change of tactics in the Sky Bet Moscow Flyer at Punchestown on January 13 saw him put in his best performance yet, though. An all-the-way win from Jetez confirmed that making the running, or at least being prominent, suits him best.
He’s bang in the mix with those at the top of the market on form. And, while he may not be the best long-term prospect in the race, odds of 20/1 look fair purely with this contest in mind.
How big a factor will experience, or lack of it, be, in the novice chases?
History says it’s a massive factor in the National Hunt Chase and it’ll be something I think about for all of the novice steeplechases this year.
Five of the last nine winners of the four-miler were having their 10th start (or more) over fences and experience could be a crucial factor in all the novice chases considering the winter we’ve had.
A lack of rain has seen some novices being restricted when it comes to racking up the miles over fences and that lack of sharpness over obstacles could be crucial.
It’s an edge I’ll be looking to explore and taking on the likes of Lalor and Duc Des Genievres in the Arkle with something with much more experience like Hardline could be a route I take.
Similarly, in the RSA, Santini and Topofthegame don’t quite have the match practice of Delta Work, who had three runs over fences before Christmas including twice in Grade Ones.
Finally, what’s the best value each-way double in the handicaps?
How about a huge-priced Willie Mullins-trained each-way double in the Coral Cup and County Hurdle?
I knew you’d like it. There is a disclaimer – I have no idea if this is the plan for these horses - but looking at the marks they’ve been given Mullins will surely be tempted to go this route.
Firstly, KILLULTAGH VIC for the Coral Cup. He’s 33s at William Hill and generally 20s and 25s. A winner of the Martin Pipe off 135 in his youth, this Cheltenham Festival winner looks nicely handicapped off 150 in the Coral Cup.
Mullins said at his recent media day that he wished he’d entered him in the Stayers’ Hurdle and that he might even supplement him for that race.
Well, off 150 I’d like to think the owners won’t have to stump up any supplementary cash as he looks to have a live chance off his given rating in the Coral Cup (an identical one to his Irish mark).
A Grade One winner over hurdles, when he beat Thistlecrack, his best run by a mile this season was when he was beaten just over a length by Presenting Percy in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran.
A strong gallop at 2m5f on a stiff track should be ideal and all the rain that’s falling is perfect for him as well.
The prospect of soft ground is also a big plus for WICKLOW BRAVE (25s William Hill, 20s generally) in the County Hurdle.
A previous winner of this race off 138 in 2015, he’s competed in the Champion Hurdle the last two years and has been rated as high as 164 at his very best over timber.
Given a mark of 153 in this year’s County Hurdle, that’s just 1lb higher than his Irish rating and he looks let in lightly for a Festival winner and proven Grade One performer.
He didn’t have a run before last year’s Champion Hurdle and he suffered for it, the improvement he showed when second on his next start at Punchestown there for all to see.
Mullins gave him a prep this year, though, and it was eye-catching, to say the least, as he ran on into second behind Espoir D’Allen in the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas.
He has more than a touch of the Arctic Fire’s about him, also a County Hurdle winner for the same owner-trainer combination, and at big odds Wicklow Brave looks a likely player in the final-day-of-the-meeting handicap.
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