Cheltenham Festival preview: Graham Cunningham final thoughts and tips

I Feel Fine as Cheltenham siren call sounds again

Be honest now. It’s lured you back in, hasn’t it?

You may have griped about small fields; you’ve probably grumbled about prices, race dilution and the whip debate; you may even have joined Hipsters hawking the notion that Leopardstown’s tribute act has become better than the real thing.

But, with no slight on the DRF, who really wants to hum along to the Bootleg Beatles when you can roar with the Fab Four?

The Long and Winding Road to Cheltenham has been marked with potholes but the original Festival still resonates Across the Universe and, after a grinding winter, even the cynics can Come Together for a week that marks the dawn of spring like no other.

Day One in 100 Words

It feels like we’ve passed the point for detailed analysis so let’s get straight to the point.

Supreme: No real view re the win market. Against High Definition for all the places.

Arkle: More than just a match and Dysart Dynamo can serve it right up to the big two.

Ultima: Cloudy Glen a long-priced lurker, Our Power a shorter priced place lay.

Champion: Constitution Hill. Daylight to State Man. Daylight to the rest. Hail the new King.

Mares’ Hurdle: Tough. Henderson is clearly loaded, Love Envoi could be in a bit too deep.

Boodles: Very tough. But Mister Freedom is a hardy scrapper with big price potential.

NH Chase: Mahler Mission a place hope and match bet option against others at similar odds

Whipping Point poised for prime time

It’s the quiz that is sweeping the racing nation and, after four weeks of low-key pilots, it’s finally going live in prime time.

Naming a game that involves watching how and how often a horse gets hit then guessing the consequences is tricky but Ben Shephard won’t mind if Whipping Point replaces Tipping Point and the Jackpot Counter in this version is eight for a ban, eleven for DQ.

Yes, I know the whip debate is too serious for flippancy but how can you take a subject seriously when it’s been handled so ham fistedly on all sides for months on end?

A Steering Committee’s key recommendations are shredded; the BHA’s bid to dress swithering up as leadership has been embarrassing; jockeys only found their voice once damage was done; and the door has been open for media voices to out-doom each other.

Hughes case highlights lack of discretion

And now comes the acid test. Chamberlin and Luck are 10/11 apiece in the race to deliver possible expulsion tool news and twitchy Twitter hawks will set the Tone on spotting perceived infringements right from the off.

Plenty of experienced observers have misread key signals as the saga has unfolded but what will the festival bring? Time will tell but I’m anticipating little DQ talk unless someone goes renegade and lots of debate about minor breaches with major consequences for riders of winners and placed horses alike.

It won’t have escaped your notice that plenty Festival winners nowadays don’t require the heavy manners and, even if things get tight, most elite riders won’t stray close to double figure territory when doing so would put them at risk of losing the race and lucrative Aintree options.

But we are living in an era when multiple champ Brian Hughes, who has averaged one small whip ban a year while riding the thick end of a thousand winners since 2017, gets four days for delivering one solitary hit in an entire race.

The fact that we have reached a point where discretion couldn’t be used to settle last week’s Donny incident suggests the beaks are following their own ‘win at all costs’ approach and, come Friday night, we might look back to a few days in December when BHA management seemed to grow weary of the shop floor calling the shots.

Hasty rejig smells like mean spirit

Out went Steering Committee plans to ban forehand use and, in a drastic case of turkeys voting for Christmas, jockeys fell for a reduction in the number of hits allowed and a doubling of penalties for over the shoulder and failing to give sufficient time to respond.

It’s fair to assume that chief exec Julie Harrington, chief regulatory officer Brant Dunshea and Steering Group chair David Jones helped produce a festive revamp which torched large parts of a plan that had been eighteen months in the making.

And it’s fair to suggest that trio should be firmly in the spotlight if this year’s Festival is peppered with bans of eight days or more for the sort of offences which would barely have moved the stewarding needle this time last year.

Don’t get me wrong, the BHA’s desire to retain the whip by moderating its use over time is laudable and the 2011 crackdown helped halve the number of breaches even as riders were held to more stringent limits.

But this 2023 dish has been seasoned using a large dash of haste and a liberal sprinkling of tit for tat. I’ll happily retract if my Festival fears prove unfounded but, from where I’m sitting, something about it just doesn’t smell right.

Day Two In 100 Words

Ballymore: Gaelic Warrior and Hermes Allen against buzz horse Impaire Et Passe

Brown Advisory: I’ve been trying to find holes in the case for Gerri Colombe. It’s not easy.

Coral Cup: The Camprond gamble doesn’t appeal. But the one on HMS Seahorse does.

Champion Chase: E’s are good. And Energumene can edge it over Edwardstone and Editeur.

Cross Country: Elliott is around 1/3 to win with Delta Work or Galvin. Punting passion killer.

Grand Annual: Some horses just draw you in. Step forward Saint Segal and Dinoblue.

Bumper: No idea but will study the paddock carefully with next season in mind.

Warrior on the right path for Festival battle

The BBC isn’t the only place racked by worries about leaning to the right this weekend.

Cheltenham Previews have been alive with gasbags worrying about whether potential stars will hinder their chances by edging towards the starboard bow so now seems as good a time as any to reveal the Top 5 right wingers and whether their habit will harm them.

1: High Definition (Supreme)

The Errant Lexicon features several terms for those who don’t jump straight. ‘Edge’ operates at the lower end of the scale along with ‘adjust,’ while ‘lunge’ and ‘lurch’ figure at the other end. Former Derby favourite High Definition is a potential lurcher based on his two hurdles runs. Joseph O’Brien will have drilled him on the schooling grounds since his DRF departure but those jumpy tendencies could be hard to eradicate.

2: Jonbon (Arkle)

Resembles the PM in that he’s started to edge right as his profile has risen. A straight shooter over hurdles and on his first two chase runs, Nicky Henderson’s gelding kept edging outwards in a tactical Kingmaker match at Warwick and, though we are splitting hairs here, he seemed similarly inclined in a recent schooling video. On balance, it’s probably of little concern and the true pace on Tuesday should bring him right back to the centre ground.

3: Gaelic Warrior (Supreme/Ballymore)

Think Jacob Rees-Mogg gradually morphing into Theresa May. Bookies dodged a real bullet when he threw last year’s Boodles away with a series of wild leaps but he’s moderating his attitude and was running all over a good field of handicappers when right-leaning instincts kicked in over the last at the DRF. It’s hard to be sure which race Rich Ricci’s gelding will go for. But, whether he enters the chamber on Tuesday or Wednesday, it’s easy to see him riding the inside rail and running a blinder.

4: Ahoy Senor (Gold Cup)

Formidable galloper and right back on song when beating several other Gold Cup hopefuls at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase but Frodon nipped up his inner to bag the lead as he drifted right early on. Exuberance isn’t a problem – as he lets fly with relish on a regular basis – but it won’t be easy for Derek Fox to boss the inner in the heat of a Gold Cup if the honourable member for Kinross starts to edge sideways again.

5: Allegorie De Vassy (Mares’ Chase)

Wilder than Nadine Dorries after three G&T’s when launching herself at the first on her latest start at Thurles in January and continued to test Paul Townend’s biceps thereafter. However, this mare has a rare spring when she gets it right and her galloping power is relentless. Will be mighty hard to beat if she finds a smooth rhythm on her Cheltenham debut and Colreevy won this for Willie and Paul despite jumping right two years ago.

Day Three in 100 Words

Turners: Potter looks Mighty good but Appreciate It could be underappreciated.

Pertemps: Elliott is mustard in this and Maxxum looms large among another strong team.

Ryanair: Shishkin has more in hand than Constitution Hill on BHA figures. If right, he wins.

Stayers’: Been wrestling with this for weeks. And will still be wrestling come Thursday.

Plate: So Scottish is so short and the rugged Midnight River looks a fair EW alternative.

Mares’ Novices’: Luccia looks smart but Willie and Gordon have strength in depth.

Kim Muir: The big prices have gone but Stumptown jumped like a buck at Sandown.

Vorders heads the market of celebs worth their Salt

Why is the spacious Festival paddock always so rammed even for five-runner races?

Maybe it’s because connections have multiple friends and rellies in tow but there’s a performative element to Cheltenham’s parade ring nowadays that carries echoes of that deeply annoying Turkish chef who almost stole Messi’s thunder after the World Cup Final.

So place your bets on the Salt Bae Stakes, a five-way go featuring several Festival veterans and a newer face who could grab himself some lovely camera time this week.

Carol Vorderman: Yes, I know the vivacious former Countdown star is busy bringing the Tories down on Twitter and on telly but she loves a jolly at the races and the camera loves her.

Thomas Skinner: The former Apprentice contestant and current Twitter self-help sage has never seen a camera he doesn’t like and would surely go down big with the lads of the Guinness Village. A Bosh!

Neil from Sunderland: It’s 100/1 you know this bloke but evens you’ve seen him lurking next to stars such as Willie Mullins and Criquette Head on TV after many a big race. Trust me, this lad makes Salt Bae look like a rank amateur.

The Wine Tipster: No Fez is complete without RTV bon vivant Neil Phillips quaffing his way through a morning sesh. Sure to tip Brandy Love, Flooring Porter and anything else with a booze connection.

Ben Keith: Unlikely to do one of his hugely popular Twitter restaurant reviews in the local Spud-U-Like but the Star Sports gourmet is nailed on to pounce on various mainstream media openings like a tramp on chips.

Day Four In 100 Words

Triumph: Blood Destiny scares me. But he’ll need to be very good to give 7lb to Lossiemouth

County: Hunters Yarn and Colonel Mustard look live against hot favourite Filey Bay.

Albert Bartlett: Punters have been doing their spuds in this for a decade. Happy to pass.

Gold Cup: Galopin for the head and pocket, Sounds Russian for the heart and pocket.

Hunters’ Chase: It’s very rare I have a clue in this race. And 2023 will be no exception.

Mares’ Chase: Not much gets past Impervious but Allegorie de Vassy looks the real deal.

Martin Pipe: Haven’t looked at this in any depth but this Might I is due, isn’t he?

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