The entries are through for the two Grade 1 novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival and Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and Tony McFadden discuss the entries.
What would you rather take – 6/4 Lulamba in the Arkle or around Evens Final Demand in the Brown Advisory?
Matt Brocklebank: I can’t say either price floats my boat so far out from the Festival, but if pushed I’d much rather be with Lulamba. It’s not that I haven’t been impressed by Final Demand’s career to this point but he’s not really looking the electrifying, knock-your-socks-off novice chaser everyone was half expecting he could be. I suppose it may come across as unnecessarily harsh when you compare these horses to the likes of Galopin Des Champs at the same stage of his career, but there’s no getting away from the fact that Final Demand isn’t particularly flashy. That’s arguably ideal for a race like the Brown Advisory but I’m not willing to put the crown on his head just yet.
Ben Linfoot: I think I’d rather take the Lulamba price, as well. He’s a bit unlucky not to be unbeaten in his career and he’s got a bit of an X Factor about him, for all that you can pick holes in his form. The reason I’d rather back him over Final Demand is that there looks to be more strength in depth in the staying novice chase division, whereas the Arkle pool looks relatively shallow with just 23 entries at this stage.
Tony McFadden: I'd lean towards Final Demand as Lulamba could face sterner opposition in the Arkle courtesy of the likes of Kopek des Bordes and Romeo Coolio. There doesn't look to be a great deal of depth to the Brown Advisory, where it's 10/1 the field bar Final Demand.
Who can shorten in the Arkle betting between now and the Festival?
MB: Well, aside from Lulamba who I can see going off odds-on on the day, you’ve got to be on the lookout for something at a bigger price who is due to run between now and March in order to enhance their claims. He might not be classy enough to win an Arkle but Mambonumberfive is a bright young prospect from an ambitious yard and he’s expected to go for the Kingmaker at Warwick which should suit. He’s 20/1 as things stand but wouldn’t be that price on the day if all goes well in the prep and only half a dozen turn up again at the Festival.
BL: The Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival is the obvious source of an Arkle shortener and that means Willie Mullins. Kopek Des Bordes and Kargese are his two for that race and they could quite easily enhance their Cheltenham Festival claims in Leopardstown next week. I’ve enjoyed watching Mambonumberfive’s progression over fences, like Matt, and will be intrigued to see how he gets on with the jumping test at Warwick in the Kingmaker.
TM: Kappa Jy Pyke has won both starts over fences and looked like a good prospect when storming home to win a two-and-a-half-mile Grade 3 at Punchestown recently, doing well to overcome an unpromising position in a steadily-run contest. He's only in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase over nearly two and three-quarter miles at the Dublin Racing Festival – and might not even run there given its proximity to his latest start - but he strikes me as one who would have the gears to drop back in trip.
Who is the biggest danger to Final Demand in the Brown Advisory?
TM: The Big Westerner showed her stamina for three miles when runner-up to Jasmin de Vaux in the Albert Bartlett last season, producing a useful effort in a competitive contest on just her third start under Rules. She's taken well to chasing and took a decent scalp in Jade de Grugy at Limerick last time, so she's entitled to respect in receipt of her 7lb sex allowance.
MB: ‘Friendly fire’ would be the easy answer I suppose as his stablemate Kitzbuhel looks a serious player. The Big Westerner and Koktail Divin given Henry De Bromhead a strong hand too but I’m still on board with Wendigo making it at the highest level. He was hampered and looked really unlucky not to finish much closer than fifth in last year’s Albert Bartlett (The Big Westerner second), form that definitely brings him into the mix. His chasing campaign has gone well to this point and I fully buy into the ground excuse at Kempton on Boxing Day. He’ll be a different horse altogether going left-handed on an undulating track and if there’s rain around, better still.
BL: His stablemate Kitzbuhel must be up there. He was seriously impressive in the Kauto Star at Kempton over Christmas and he has improved plenty for seeing a fence. Wendigo ran well behind him that day considering the nature of that track wouldn’t suit and it sounds like all roads lead to the Brown Advisory for him, even though he’d be interesting for an Ultima if he qualifies. The Big Westerner’s Festival form is a plus for her, so there are plenty of dangers for all that Final Demand could enhance his own claims at the DRF.
How have the entries for these races shaped up since the Turners (2m4f G1 Novice Chase) was removed from the programme?
MB: It’s clearly made it far more difficult for the likes of Romeo Coolio, whose connections insist is best at two and a half miles, but I love the fact they’re going to have to take on either the Arkle horses or the likes of Final Demand in the Brown Advisory. Sadly, the axing of the Grade 1 over the intermediate distance never really feel like an exciting new development – rather an absolute necessity as there simply isn’t enough decent horses to make up the sort of competitive races we all want to see. Even without it last year, we had a five-runner Arkle and only seven in the three-miler, so it can hardly be considered the silver bullet that’s fixed the Festival. An initial entry of 23 horses in this year’s Arkle looks pretty paltry and while there are almost double that number in the Brown Advisory, most of those will end up running in handicaps at the meeting, so it’s hard to envisage relatively big fields for these races.
BL: The absence of the Turners has seen no increase in Arkle entries whatsoever which is a little surprising, given how much stamina can play a part in the two-mile race, and it seems the horses that would’ve run in the intermediate race are now going in the longer Brown Advisory where the numbers look healthier (43 entries versus 23 in the Arkle). It’s early days, but with the Festival programme being a moveable feast it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see the 2m4f Grade 1 novice chase reintroduced at some stage, for all that it makes sense to keep it off the roster for now given the small fields these races have been producing at the Festival in recent years.
TM: It doesn't feel like there are enough high-class horses to warrant three Grade 1 novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival and hopefully the removal of the Turners will help to bolster the competitiveness of the Arkle and Brown Advisory. Romeo Coolio, for one, would be a welcome addition to whichever novice chase he contests, most likely the Arkle.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
