The juvenile hurdling scene in early February is not easy. Lots can happen between now and mid-March.
In 2020, for example, at this time that year, the Triumph Hurdle winner Burning Victory had run five times on the flat in France, but had never run over hurdles and had yet to make her debut for Willie Mullins. It was a similar story in 2019, Pentland Hills had achieved a rating of 73 on the flat for Chris Wall, but hadn’t yet made his debut for Nicky Henderson.
Farclas had been beaten on his first run for Gordon Elliott, Countrywide Flame had been beaten in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Even Tiger Roll, the 2014 Triumph Hurdle winner, had won on his debut for Nigel Hawke at Market Rasen, but hadn’t yet raced in the Gigginstown House colours for Gordon Elliott.
It does appear that there is a little more solidity to the shape of the class of 2021/22 than usual, but maybe that’s the same every year. Then something comes from left-field.
Either way, it’s a really interesting scene at present. Fil Dor has been towards the top of the market since he won impressively on his first run for Gordon Elliott at Down Royal in October, easily winning a juveniles’ hurdle that has worked out really well since through the three horses who chased him home. Fil Dor himself progressed from that, winning the Grade 3 juveniles’ hurdle at Fairyhouse on Hatton’s Grace Hurdle day, and following up in the Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, when he had more in hand over runner-up Lunar Power than he had at Fairyhouse.
You can’t really fault Fil Dor, he is a talented and progressive young hurdler who has a really willing attitude, but some of his peers have been similarly progressive. His stable companion, for example, Pied Piper, battled on well to beat Vauban and win his maiden hurdle at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve, and he followed up by winning the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.
He could hardly have been more impressive than he was in winning on Saturday. In so doing, he proved that he could operate at Cheltenham and, a 96-rated performer on the flat for John and Thady Gosden, he is a worthy Triumph Hurdle favourite at present.
The Finesse Hurdle is a good pointer to the Triumph too, which makes sense, given that it is run over the Triumph Hurdle course and distance usually around seven weeks before the Triumph. Defi Du Seuil won the Finesse Hurdle in 2017 before going on to win the Triumph. Peace And Co won the Finesse Hurdle in 2015, Katchit won the Finesse Hurdle in 2007.
Which juveniles could head for the Sky Bet Supreme instead?
Interestingly, Hors La Loi won the Finesse Hurdle for Francois Doumen in 1999 but, instead of running in the Triumph Hurdle after he joined Martin Pipe, he was re-routed to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which he duly won, getting 8lb from his elders.
That is a route that is open to both Pied Piper and Fil Dor, a route made all the more attractive for one of them because of the fact that both of them are owned by Andrew and Gemma Brown’s Caldwell Construction, and trained by Gordon Elliott. You can see the attraction for connections in splitting them up.
The 8lb weight concession that the youngsters receive is, of course, a help, but history tells you that it’s still not easy for juveniles in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Hors La Loi is the last juvenile to win the Supreme, and you have to go back to 1973 to find the last one before Hors La Loi.
In mitigation, not many try. Fakir D’Oudairies was the last juvenile to run in the Supreme, finishing fourth behind Klassical Dream in 2019, and he had run out an impressive winner of the Finesse Hurdle too on his last run before the Festival. But there wasn’t really a well-fancied juvenile in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in the decade that had gone before, not since 2008, when Binocular finished second behind fellow JP McManus-owned horse Captain Cee Bee.
If one of the Caldwell Construction juveniles was re-routed to the Supreme, that would activate an option for their Mighty Potter to step up in trip and go for the Ballymore instead. All Mighty Potter’s runs to date have been over the minimum trip but, a half-brother to French Dynamite, he does race as if he would have no problem going out in distance. Mighty Potter is set to run in the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival on Sunday, so we should know a lot more after that.
We should know a lot more about the juvenile hurdlers too after the Dublin Racing Festival, with some of the best Irish juveniles – excepting Pied Piper obviously – set to clash in the Racing TV '12 euro per month this weekend only' Spring Juvenile Hurdle.
The Spring Hurdle has probably been the best pointer to the Triumph Hurdle in recent years. Quilixios won the Leopardstown race last year, then followed up at Cheltenham. Mr Adjudicator and Farclas finished first and second in the Spring Hurdle in 2018, and finished second and first respectively in the Triumph. Mega Fortune and Bapaume finished first and second in the Spring Hurdle in 2017, and they finished second and third behind Defi Du Seuil in the Triumph.
You get the picture.
Ivanovich Gorbatov finished fourth in the Spring Hurdle in 2016 before winning the Triumph. Tiger Roll finished second behind Guitar Pete at Leopardstown in 2014 before winning the Triumph Hurdle, with Guitar Pete finishing third. Our Conor won both races in 2013. Countrywide Flame finished third at Leopardstown in 2012, then went two places better at Cheltenham.
Fil Dor and Vauban dispute favouritism for the Spring Hurdle this year, and that is understandable, Fil Dor is three for three over hurdles and, out of a half-sister to A Plus Tard, continues to progress, while Vauban finished a close second to the afore-mentioned Pied Piper at Punchestown on his first run for Willie Mullins and, if he had jumped the final flight a little better than he did, probably would have finished closer still.
Pied Piper obviously improved from Punchestown to Cheltenham, but there is every chance that Vauban will make similar progression. That was his first run over hurdles, his first run for Willie Mullins, his first run since July. It all adds up to more to come.
What's the best bet at this stage?
That said, all of that is factored into his Triumph Hurdle odds. By contrast, his stable companion Icare Allen may be a little under-rated by the market. JP McManus’ horse was making his Irish debut too when he won a juveniles’ maiden hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.
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There was a lot to like about the performance that he put up that day too. He only won by three lengths in the end, but he travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out, he was the only horse who was still on the bridle at the top of the home straight, and he powered away on the run-in to win well, leaving the impression that there was plenty more to come.
That maiden hurdle has been won in the past by Ivanovich Gorbatov and Mr Adjudicator and Sir Erec, it is another race that can be a good pointer to the future, and Icare Allen could be a big player in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle on Saturday.
It may be that he will be a lot shorter for the Triumph Hurdle than he is at present after Saturday’s race.
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