Cheltenham Festival 2024 timefigure preview - Grey Dawning heads novice chasers

"In football, two days is a long time and a week is a very long time,” former England manager Steve McClaren reportedly once said, possibly in a Dutch accent. Best known for dragging Newcastle United down to previously unseen depths while bookkeeping an undistinguished England managerial career by whitening his teeth and sipping coffee under an umbrella, McClaren also reportedly said another time that “I don’t gamble”. Whether that last remark still holds true or ever was true I don’t know but his initial quote still resonates when applied to the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival.

Racehorses are far more fragile than footballers and in the space of two days Constitution Hill and Marine Nationale have both fallen by the wayside. With the likes of Energumene, Allaho and French ace Theleme no shows too, all because of injury, let’s hope all the remaining entrants whether high profile or low profile avoid injury in the next six days.

The purpose of this column is not to dwell on absentees but to give a broad overview of the major contenders in each of the divisions from a final time perspective. Horses mentioned here shouldn’t be taken as selections - those will be given ahead of the action in a daily column to be published on sportinglife.com once the full range of markets and runners as well as underfoot conditions becoming apparent are known – but I’ll try and highlight anything of particular interest and will mention now some of the horses I’ve already backed.

It’s not all roses that’s for sure and if there is a lesson to be learned from this season’s bets appropriate to the events of the last few days it’s that long range ante-post multiples aren’t ones for high staking. Gaelic Warrior is a horse I have both a modest winning position (Turners) and much heavier losing position (Brown Advisory) on as well as being part of several multiples, nearly all in the Brown Advisory, while other big losers include Impaire Et Passe (in multiples too) and Mighty Bandit. The Triumph isn’t a race I normally get involved with too heavily but a win for either Sir Gino or Salvador Mundi, who might yet run, will put me in front nicely while JPR One (whose chance looks better by the day) is another I’ll be cheering loudly for.

If I’ve any advice regarding general punting pointers at this year’s Festival it’s don’t get too bogged down with current stable form, don’t disregard 2022/2023 season bumper ‘form’ when assessing this season’s crop of novices and beware backing exposed Irish chasers in handicaps. The somewhat forgotten Firefox is a horse who can lean on excellent bumper form, for example, while Embittered is a fine example of a horse to oppose. He’s already run at three Festivals over fences off marks of either 145 or 146 without finishing closer than seventh yet bizarrely finds himself off 146 again after winning a handicap this season in Ireland off a much reduced mark that couldn’t be weaker form if it tried to be.

Given the meeting kicks off with the Supreme and the Arkle, I’ll begin with the novice hurdlers and chasers without pigeon-holing any of the horses as distance specific given many of them have multiple entries.

Supreme and Baring Bingham favourite Ballyburn not unexpectedly sets the standard among the novice hurdlers with his 154 timefigure in the Brave Inca at the Dublin Racing Festival a mighty 7lb clear of next-best Caldwell Potter (who is set to miss Cheltenham) and 10lb clear of joint third bests Tullyhill (whose only Cheltenham entry is the Supreme) and Brave Inca runner-up Slade Steel.

In turn those four hold a further 5lb advantage over the other novices but one of those on 139 is Captain Teague and he’s worth noting as he is the only one of the leaders who has posted his figure at two and a half miles or more. That ‘middle-distance’ division is a congested one, however, with Built By Ballymore (138), Ile Atlantique and Readin Tommy Wrong all on 137 and Dancing City among those on 135. Brighterdaysahead (136) and Dysart Enos (131) head the ratings among the mares which ties in nicely with the ratings I have for them in bumpers last year using a unique combination of overall time (compared to the best of the races over hurdles at the same distance on the same card) and sectionals when they were the two best mares for me.

Unlike the novice division over hurdles the leader in the chasing division isn’t favourite for either of the two races he is engaged in.

That horse is Grey Dawning who posted a 161 when winning the Hampton Novices Chase with a strong-staying performance at Warwick over three miles yet is still being talked of as a possible for the Turners over the shorter trip.

He would have beaten the horse second (156) in the timefigure ratings, Ginny’s Destiny, in a novice chase at Cheltenham before Christmas had he not clouted the second last in a race which also included Crebilly who is currently favourite for the Plate.

In view of recent scratchings, French-based Il Est Francais (153) would have given the Festival a welcome boost but he is being trained for bigger targets in France. Nickle Back (150) is the best of the remainder of the home-based contingent but Ireland is bound to have a big say with their flag-bearer, on the clock at least, being Gaelic Warrior whose Limerick win in the Faugheen Chase was worth a 151.

Gaelic Warrior was beaten, of course, by Fact To File at the Dublin Racing Festival when virtually stopping to nothing and the timefigure Fact of File recorded that day (141) could easily had been higher had he not been allowed to coast home alone.

Corbetts Cross and Il Etait Temps both figure on 145 (for context, the aforementioned Cheltenham-loving JPR One is 140) but Fact To File was second in last year’s Champion Bumper and on the combined overall time/sectional metric I mentioned earlier my calculations suggest he was the second best horse operating in that sphere last year, better even arguably than Ballyburn and Tullyhill, and he clearly possesses the talent to go right to the top.

One novice chaser absent from those top on overall time is Stay Away Fay for the simple reason that he has yet to run in anything over fences other than a steadily-run race. Despite that he has run to a high level without the abundant stamina that won him the Albert Bartlett last year being tested and when it finally is there’s surely a much bigger performance in his locker.

The defection of Constitution Hill has seemingly swung the door open for State Man to go one better than 2023 in the Champion Hurdle. The ‘feeling’ that he’s a better horse this season than last is evident on the clock with a 165 timefigure in the Matheson over Christmas a big advance on the 148 he managed twice last season.

2022 Triumph winner Lossiemouth might yet switched from the Mares but a 127 timefigure remains her best for all her turn of foot isn’t in question and I’d be looking to oppose her should she end up in the field. Dual Fighting Fifth winner Not So Sleepy is capable of running a 151 on the clock and that would probably be good enough to get placed this year but Zarak The Brave has already surpassed that rating in a much shorter career, running a 153 in the Galway Hurdle, and he made short work of Tellmesumthinggirl at Limerick when last seen.

Irish Point, unbeaten in his last four races, is yet another who might get rerouted here and would be in the mix if he could reproduce the 148 timefigure he posted in the 2022 Royal Bond, but he’s looked an even better horse in his last two starts at two and a half miles and beyond and it might be that he’ll end up sacrificing the Stayers' Hurdle on the altar of the Champion Hurdle.

That his trainer Gordon Elliott can even consider that option, of course, is because he has an equally good if less versatile candidate for the Stayers' in Teahupoo. I say less versatile because Elliott has possibly unwisely put all his eggs in one basket and concentrated on getting him to the Stayers' fresh, so shunning targets along the way on ground far more favourable than he is likely to encounter on Thursday given the forecast.

Veterans they may be but Sire du Berlais (161), Champ (158) and Paisley Park (also 158) all have better efforts on the clock than Teahupoo while Dashel Drasher has an identical 155. Only Paisley Park of that quartet has shown form this season on a level he has historically shown and he’s going to hard to keep out of the frame. Up and coming Crambo (141) has a bit to do on the clock but he has youth on his side in a contest where many don’t.

Galopin Des Champs might head the betting for the Gold Cup as he bids to repeat his 2023 win when he posted an impressive 177 timefigure but there is one horse among the opposition who has bettered that figure over fences and that is Shishkin.

He recorded his career high – 178 – in the Clarence House at Ascot in 2022 but he’s since been reinvented as a staying chaser and he’d surely have won the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day (and finished ahead of Hewick and Bravemansgame) had he not unseated at the second last.

Bravemansgame hasn’t quite been at his best this season but will be a major player again if he can reproduce either the 172 he posted in the 2022 King George or his 170 in last season’s Gold Cup but Hewick is a hard horse to pin down on time given he’s run plenty either in Ireland or abroad at tracks Timeform don’t return timefigures from and a 153 in the 2022 Galway Plate probably underestimates him a bit.

Neither Fastorslow, who has beaten Galopin des Champs twice in tactical affairs, nor L’Homme Presse has cracked the 155 barrier over fences yet, posting career-bests of 149 and 153 respectively, but one horse who has, and has done it three times yet has become something of the forgotten horse of the race is Gerri Colombe who pretty much disputed favouritism in the Savills Chase at Christmas but ended up getting a walloping after racing on the slower ground.

Banbridge and Stage Star (both 164) top the list of likeliest candidates for the Ryanair.

Banbridge is unbeaten in two trips to Cheltenham, won at the Festival in 2022 when taking the Martin Pipe and probably isn’t as good ground dependent as is often stated, having won three times in Ireland on ground Timeform called soft, but Stage Star has three wins to his name there too while reigning champion Envoi Allen (160) can boast an even better record with three Festival wins to his name.

El Fabiolo still holds an engagement in the Ryanair but seems sure to head to the Champion Chase. To win that he’ll have to get the better again of his old rival Jonbon, who has posted the marginally better overall timefigure over fences – 166 as opposed to El Fabiolo’s 163 – but jumping remains something of an issue for both with Jonbon looking for all the world too as if a step up to two and a half miles won’t go amiss.

If either of them falter, 2022 Arkle winner Edwardstone (162) or Captain Guinness (164) both possess the ability to take advantage though it should be said the latter who retains his free-going nature is probably a better horse away from Cheltenham.

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