Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the quality fare from Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday, with three recommended bets.
Value Bet tips: Saturday December 14
1pt win Gemirande in 1.50 Cheltenham at 11/1 (William Hill, bet365)
0.5pts e.w. Straw Fan Jack in 2.05 Doncaster at 40/1 (Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Royale Margaux in 3.35 Cheltenham at 11/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
Today's Boosted Sky Bet Request-A-Bet
- THEONEWEDREAMOF to place - 1.13 Cheltenham
- GEMIRANDE to place - 1.50 Cheltenham
- ROYALE MARGAUX to place - 3.35 Cheltenham
Williams' winning run to continue
Madara went into every notebook under the sun with his running-on fourth in last month’s Paddy Power Gold Cup and it’s no great surprise to see him so strong in the betting for Saturday’s big race back at Cheltenham - the Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
Dan Skelton admitted to not knowing a huge amount about his new recruit prior to the stable debut and must have come away highly encouraged. So much so that the cheekpieces - worn for last year’s victories here at Prestbury Park and Leopardstown (both two miles or thereabouts) - are refitted for this weekend, and it looks an ideal target for a horse who will appreciate the switch back to the New Course.
He's got to be on the shortlist if having a bet, but you can make a case for so many of these runners that the revised quotes of 7/2 are easy enough to resist.
Stage Star is the one I’ve warmed to since final declarations as he was just a touch one-paced in the closing stages of the Old Roan but did run very well on reflection and simply loves this place so could come alive on his second run of the season, following another summer breathing operation.
Harry Cobden will probably look to turn this into a proper test and is likely to be jostling for a prominent early sit, which is always preferable on this configuration in particular, but I fear he might struggle to give the thick end of two stone to an in-form rival like GEMIRANDE.
It’s not what you’d consider ideal ground for most of Venetia Williams’ horses at the moment, but this one is happy enough whatever the conditions and probably wouldn’t have wanted a complete bog anyway.
Indeed, his career-best performance came just last month on good going at Ascot when, well backed, he flew around and looked on fantastic terms with himself under a confident Charlie Deutsch, who is getting down to his minimum weight (10-2) for this.
Gemirande always promised to land on a really nice pot, progressing rapidly from a lowly mark (114) at the start of the 2022/23 campaign and almost winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury before finishing second past the post (demoted to third) in the Silver Trophy here the following month.
Last season something didn’t look quite right, especially when weakening out of it to finish almost last in the Silver Trophy, but the Grand Annual fifth was a decent enough effort over an inadequate trip at the Festival and maybe he’s only now fully maturing as a chaser.
An 8lb rise for Ascot looks a bit of a guess-up as he could have gone up any amount for readily beating a couple of horses who had won well on their previous starts, so while Gemirande needs another PB on the book, that looks perfectly plausible and I’ll back him to deliver at double-figure odds.
Royale with ease...
In the concluding BetMGM Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, the layers did look to be taking a flier by dangling 5/2 about Joyeuse and that was inevitably snapped up fairly sharply.
With all the attention on the Nicky Henderson/JP McManus horse, there are tempting prices elsewhere and the one I landed on was ROYALE MARGAUX.
She was prolific in France and although yet to win a race for Tom Symonds, she has run loads of good races in defeat, mainly over fences and a couple of times at this venue.
This time last year she bumped into Gavin Cromwell’s La Malmason in the mares’ handicap chase (run on the Friday card last season), going down fighting off a mark of 123 to a rival who is now rated a stone higher over fences.
And although unable to build on that effort, a switch back to hurdling looks to have helped Royale Margaux this time around and I was really struck by how well she travelled when ultimately having to settle for second at Ascot last month.
The first go over three miles looked to catch her out after the last but it was a run that strongly suggested she was arcing back to her peak and I don’t see a 4lb rise preventing her going well again.
Dropping back in trip looks the perfect move and while the lightly-raced Joyeuse could be thrown in and has to be respected accordingly, it’s the Symonds mare who appears better value.
Needle in a haystack
The rest of the revised Saturday card at Cheltenham is rather uninspiring but thankfully Doncaster’s bet365 Handicap Chase provides another strong betting heat on the day.
Gaboriot looks to be lurking on a good mark at present and he features among a handful of previous course scorers who command respect.
Arguably the most interesting is Nick Kent’s Erne River, who has Town Moor form figures of 11215 and is back on a mark of 132 having won his last handicap off 134 over this track and trip 12 months ago (later in the month).
Considering he’s been pulled-up in his three most recent outings, the layers don’t seem to be taking too many chances as I was half-hoping he might be a 33/1 chance or thereabouts having seen how well the entries held up on Thursday morning.
Sadly not, so I’ll pivot towards STRAW FAN JACK, a horse who has yet to race at Doncaster before now but could possess the requisite blend of speed and stamina to be fully effective on his first outing over three miles.
He’s certainly bred for the job, being by Geordieland out of a Double Trigger mare, and his sire may help explain why Sheila Lewis’ grey has been quite hard to predict over the years.
When he’s on song, though, Straw Fan Jack’s form stands up to close scrutiny in this sort of company and a repeat of something like his Cheltenham Festival third behind Shakem Up’arry in March would bring him into the equation.
He’s only 1lb higher than for that effort this weekend and lines up on the back of a seasonal debut pipe-opener in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, when he ran better than the bare result but ultimately paid for some jumping mistakes through the first half of the race – finishing eighth.
He will enjoy the prevailing ground here and his natural pace could be a real weapon late on as there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of early speed in the field, which may lead to them going slowly before ‘sprinting’ for home off the turn.
Published at 1600 GMT on 13/12/24
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