Charlie Appleby Classic analysis including One Ruler and Master Of The Seas
Charlie Appleby still has just the one British Classic victory on his CV courtesy of Masar in the 2018 Derby, but he’s knocked on the door on several other occasions in recent years.
Masar himself was third in the 2000 Guineas before making the breakthrough at Epsom, while the filly Wild Illusion was another to hit the frame at both Newmarket and Epsom that year, finishing fourth in the 1000 Guineas and second in the Oaks.
Pinatubo also finished third in last year’s 2000 Guineas, though that was considered a rather disappointing return at the time given the lofty expectations which surrounded him. After all, Pinatubo had ended the previous campaign as Timeform’s highest-rated two-year-old for 25 years, causing him to be sent off 5/6 at Newmarket, just the third colt this century to be sent off odds-on for the 2000 Guineas (after Frankel and Air Force Blue).
In a much more open year, it remains to be seen who will be sent off favourite for the opening Classic of the 2021 Flat season in Britain, but it’s abundantly clear that Appleby and Godolphin possess a very strong hand at Moulton Paddocks. In fact, Appleby looks to have assembled a stronger team of three-year-old colts in 2021 than at any other stage in his training career, with events at last week’s Craven Meeting at Newmarket only serving to underline that view.
For context, Appleby is responsible for seven three-year-old colts who have already shown smart form by achieving a Timeform rating of 110 or above. By way of comparison, Aidan O’Brien can call upon only five such horses as things stand, namely St Mark’s Basilica (121p), Wembley (119), Battleground (115p), Van Gogh (113) and High Definition (111P).
Five of Appleby’s top-performing three-year-old colts were in action at Newmarket, yielding clean sweeps of the first two places in both the Craven Stakes and Feilden Stakes, along with an honourable second for Naval Crown (112) when trying to defy top weight and a BHA mark of 107 in the Free Handicap.
Naval Crown now has the option of the 2000 Guineas, but it’s fair to say that Appleby has stronger contenders amongst his six entries for that race, including the decisive winner of the Craven, Master of The Seas (116).
Master of The Seas had already shown himself to be capable of smart form as a two-year-old, notably winning the Superlative Stakes, but his performance in the Craven represented another step up the ladder. Stablemate La Barrosa (114) – who doesn’t hold an entry in the 2000 Guineas – got first run but was unable to maintain the advantage, with Master of The Seas showing a smart change of gear to scythe him down and get on top close home.
Master of The Seas clearly deserves his chance in the 2000 Guineas on the back of that success, and he could be joined in the line-up by Highland Avenue (114p), who was also in winning action at Newmarket, and One Ruler (113), who has leapt to ante-post favouritism in recent days despite only appearing in a racecourse gallop.
The money that’s arrived for One Ruler is certainly significant (new favourite at 9/2 with Sky Bet on Monday), suggesting he is ready to step up on the form he achieved when winning the Autumn Stakes and filling the runner-up spot in the Futurity Trophy as a two-year-old.
It’s hard to argue that he offers any value at the revised odds, though, with his current Timeform rating demanding plenty improvement to win even an ordinary renewal of the 2000 Guineas.
In pure form terms, Highland Avenue is perhaps just as interesting having shown much improved form to win Tuesday’s Feilden Stakes, completing a hat-trick in doing so after a couple of low-key wins on the all-weather at Kempton. That listed victory was achieved over nine furlongs, but Highland Avenue is likely to be at least as effective back over a mile, certainly not bred to need any further. Again, more will be needed if he's to make a serious impact in the 2000 Guineas, but he’s another from the yard who has at least earned himself a crack.
Stablemate Secret Protector (110p) also showed smart form when second in the Feilden, pulling clear of the rest and shaping like more of a stayer than the winner.
He has improved by the run and will be suited by at least a mile and a quarter, with a race like the Dante Stakes at York appealing as the obvious next step. It will be no surprise if he eventually heads to Epsom as Appleby’s chief hope of repeating Masar’s Derby-winning exploits of nearly three years ago, though Hurricane Lane (104p) might have something to say about that after maintaining his unbeaten record with a strong-staying performance to win a minor event at Newbury on Friday.
The gelding Rebel’s Romance (118) is also among the really smart group of three-year-olds at Appleby’s disposal, though he is likely to be heading in a totally different direction to the rest having shown his best form to date on the dirt at Meydan.
He made it four wins from five starts when winning the UAE Derby last time and is reportedly being aimed at the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the US Triple Crown. That race is run over a mile and a half, and his strength at the finish when winning on Dubai World Cup night suggests he’ll be suited by the test it provides.
Appleby has already enjoyed plenty of success in the US, with his high-profile wins including that of Wuheida in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Incidentally, Wuheida had been ruled out of the 1000 Guineas earlier in the season due to a stress fracture, arguably depriving her trainer of his best chance of winning a British fillies’ Classic up to now.
It’s surely only a matter of time before Appleby ticks that omission off his CV, and his best chance of doing so this season looks to be A’Shaari (92P), who ran out an impressive winner on her sole two-year-old start and is also a full sister to none other than Wuheida, identifying her as very much a filly to follow wherever she goes next.
Admittedly, it’s slightly disconcerting that A’Shaari hasn’t featured in any of the key trials for the 1000 Guineas, meaning she’ll be light on experience if heading straight to Newmarket.
There is no doubt she is an exciting filly, though, with the large ‘P’ attached to her Timeform rating denoting that she is open to significant improvement.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
