Charlie Appleby prospects for the Guineas and the Derby in 2024
By Ian Ogg
13:47 · SUN March 31, 2024
After back-to-back trainers' championships, 2023 was a disappointing year for Charlie Appleby but he has a promising Classic crop which could help the stable bounce back.
In 2021 Charlie Appleby sent out a record 115 domestic winners to be crowned Champion Trainer for the first time but Godolphin is a global operation and his worldwide tally yielded 17 Group and Grade One winners.
The following year saw Appleby and his team surpass the previous 12 months, retaining his Champion Trainer crown with 150 winners and another good sprinkling of success in top-flight races - including his first 2000 Guineas - but the trainer had been cognisant of how hard it can be to maintain or build on such a season, saying at the end of 2022: “From the team’s point of view the hardest part is to stay where we are. To stay at the top of the table was the challenge and thankfully we have managed to do that which is phenomenal.”
Those words are apposite reflecting on 2023, a year which saw his tally fall to 106 and the stable suffer some uncharacteristic cold spells which saw monthly strike rates fall as low as 18% and 21% from more customary levels of the mid-20s to low-30s and a barren Royal Ascot despite 18 runners. Ultimately the strike rate for the year was only marginally below the levels of the previous two seasons but the prize money won dropped by over £3.5m.
Keeping the production line rolling is no easy thing as Appleby said and the retirement of a number of the star older horses left a big hole while the three-year-old cupboard was relatively bare with the 2022 juveniles lacking a champion. Consequentially the team of older horses is smaller but this year's Classic crop promise more than their immediate predecessors and the green shoots of recovery are in the offing despite the presence of only one juvenile in the top European classifications.
Ancient Wisdom was that juvenile in question and the stable's leading hope for the 2000 Guineas was kept busy, running five times and winning four of them with his only defeat coming behind the highly regarded Rosallion at Ascot. Freshened up after that reverse, Ancient Wisdom produced an impressive display on his return to trounce his rivals in the Autumn Stakes and earn a supplementary shot at the Futurity Stakes. He duly won the Doncaster Group One - a race which has been a good recent guide to Classic success - and hopes are obviously high for a colt who is expected to relish being stepped up to middle distances.
Sits alongside Ancient Wisdom in the ante-post betting for the Derby following a season which saw him progress with each start following a debut defeat at Sandown. Arabian Crown made no mistake on his return to Esher before comfortably taking the Stonehenge Stakes and the Zetland by an impressive five and a half lengths. It was only a four runner renewal of the Zetland and the form of the race is open to question but the manner of Arabian Crown's Victory left his trainer purring and talking about a campaign that would be geared around Epsom for the first half of 2024. Reportedly not a great work horse, he certainly brings his top game to the track which is never a bad thing and the dream is very much alive.
Finished fourth on his debut at Newmarket in October but was only beaten three parts of a length, Point Sur put that experience to good use when returning to the same venue towards the end of the month in holding off the challenge of Native Warrior with the pair pulling five and a half lengths clear of the third. Those two runs came on good to firm and soft which bodes well for Point Sur's versatility and this half-brother to St Leger second New London should come into his own as he gradually moves up through the distances this season.
Devoted Queen looked a potential star when winning on debut in Newmarket in October. She only needed to be pushed out to pull clear in impressive fashion with the opposition well strung out behind. The placed horses have both been beaten since (both runner-up) but the second has been given an initial rating of 82 and Devoted Queen comfortably accounted for that more experienced rival by a couple of lengths. She's a half-sister to One Ruler among others, is reported to have wintered well and is on course for the Nell Gwyn Stakes with a tilt at the Guineas in mind.
Native Approach didn't appear until January of this year but was sent off at 5/6 for his debut only to narrowly miss out to Cracking Gold, a winner of his next start, too, and a neck second off 88 on Wednesday where his relative inexperience showed. Back to the Godolphin horse and he duly made no mistake at cramped odds when returned to Kempton in February, a run which was given a boost by the same owner's Jolly Jack Tar (trained by the Gosdens). Native Approach is a long way from being the finished article but it's notable that he retains his entry in the 2000 Guineas alongside Ancient Wisdom and Notable Speech (another who ran at Kempton in January and February, winning both starts latterly from Friday's Listed winner Cuban Tiger) and it will be interesting to see where his limitations lie.
Dance Sequence is prominent in the betting for both the Guineas and the Oaks and the unbeaten filly is rated highly by both her trainer and William Buick. The stable's 2023 1000 Guineas winner came via Meydan though and Cinderella's Dream has won the same two races in Dubai as Mawj. Cinderella's Dream won at Lingfield and Thirsk before shipping out for the winter and has shown enough to believe that she could be a contender for pattern races back in Europe. The Jumeirah 1000 Guineas lacked depth as her SP of 1/20 indicates but she still won as she liked despite her saddle slipping and Buick losing his irons with the jockey doing well to just stay on board. Cinderella's Dream is the second foal of a 10f winner whose own dam was the smart High Heeled which bodes well for her chances of continuing to progress over middle distances through the season.
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