We asked our Podcast panel - what's the best bet in the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at Newmarket?
It's already been a lively betting market this week - so how do they see the race?
David Johnson: “Sea Lantern is an interesting horse. He’s going to be two or three pounds off top-rated with Timeform with a 'p' on that rating. He has just a four-pound penalty for his win at Pontefract last time and he’s certainly getting in there at the right end of the weights.
“He's only had four runs in his life and that’s perhaps the question mark. The Cesarewitch traditionally tends to be won by tough, hardy, experienced horses and there’s a slight concern over whether he’s going to have the experience to handle the hurly-burly of a race like this considering he was up against six rivals on his reappearance and it was a five-runner race he won at Pontefract last time.
“This kind of race isn’t usually my forte so I was having a word with our staying handicapper Simon Walker and he insisted I went back and watch the two-mile handicap at York from the Ebor Meeting in which MOUNTAIN ROAD was second – and having done so you can very much see what he was getting at.
“Small Fry won having got first run and had good form going into it having shaped well at Goodwood the time before. Mountain Road just ended up having too much to do under a five-pound claimer. Paul Mulrennan is booked already for Saturday and stepping up in trip in a strongly-run race, he’s going to be very interesting.
"I think he’s going to be winning the Cesarewitch.”
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Graham Cunningham: “I was at Ponte when Sea Lantern won and was very impressed with him physically and in the race itself but I agree with David, this is a hard school for a horse who has only had four races and don’t forget he’s going up the best part of a mile in trip as well. It’s a tough ask for a very promising horse.
“I’ve done this race in detail without coming up with a strong bet. Beylerbeyi is a remarkable horse but he’s 10 pounds higher than when winning last year. He was better than ever when second in the Doncaster Cup though, Caballo De Mar has polished that form already and he’s dangerous finishing from the back.
“Kirchner was disappointing at York and looked a bit flat there but they expected a lot better – and I know they expect a lot better on Saturday too, James Owen and co. I echo David’s positive comments on Mountain Road; Valedictory also ran in that York race and I want to ask Billy about a couple of Irish raiders.
Cock And Bull used to be with Michael Bell and kept grinding for a win at Galway but is up ten pounds which seems a pretty excessive hike to me.
“Reverend Hubert is eight years of age, and was eighth and fifth in the last two Cesarewitchs. He’s been in great form over hurdles and on the flat and I thought he went for home a bit too soon in this race last year. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran a cheeky race this weekend – what do you think Billy?"
Billy Nash: “He certainly could and he comes here in good form and has won three times over hurdles this year. I suppose it’s a typical Charles Byrnes preparation and we know that he stays very well. I wouldn’t put anyone off him at 16/1 but I think it’s highly significant that there’s been a lot of money for Dawn Rising this week.
“When I looked at the race originally I thought ‘ah there’s one who might be lurking off a bit of a mark’ but you can’t say that he is. He’s off the same mark as the one he ran in the race from last year when he finished second. His form figures are a little uninspiring but I think he’s had a preparation absolutely geared around this race.
“He has run a couple of times at a mile-and-a-half, once over ten furlongs which is far too short for him. He’s had a couple of runs over a mile-and-a-three-quarters and the last day at Leopardstown over a mile and five. Interestingly, all his best form in recent years has been with a tongue strap on and he’s only worn in twice this year (back on this weekend).
“You can pretty easily put a line through his last two runs. He was drawn out in the car park at Galway over a mile-and-a-half and never got competitive while he ran in the 'Petingo' at Leopardstown last time, was dropped out in a race where very few horses got into it, and just didn’t get competitive but didn’t get a hard race.
“I see Ryan Moore has been booked. He’s into 6/1 in places which is far too short on what he’s done this year but if you go back far enough you can certainly make a case for him. We know he’ll stay really well and I am pretty sure this has been Plan A all year.
“Cock And Bull looked like a horse who had lost his way a little for Michael Bell and seems to have been rejuvenated by Emmet Mullins. He’s rated 99 over hurdles which is going to look very, very attractive whenever they run him in a handicap hurdle. He did bolt up at Galway, it was two miles and half a furlong on pretty soft ground. It turned into a real slog and this fellow seemed to really relish it.
“As GC said, he’s been put up ten pounds and he was partnered by Sam Cohen on that occasion who was taking five off. That’s another significant factor but Emmet has booked James Doyle and let’s not forget he won the Cesarewitch on The Shunter for the same yard a few years ago. This horse hasn’t tried this trip before but looks to have been rejuvenated by a change of scenery and must have a chance.
“And the other horse we must touch on is Alphonse Le Grande who won this race a couple of years ago for Tony Martin. He’s back down to the same mark again and while he hasn’t won since, I wouldn’t be surprised if like Dawn Rising this race hasn’t been the plan all year. He’s back down to a workable mark and it will be interesting to see how he goes in the market."
Graham Cunningham: “A lovely silky segway here from Alphonse Le Grande and Ryan Moore to Manxman and Toby Moore for the first time. Remember when Alphonse Le Grande won the Cesarewitch, they branded the expulsion tool because of excessive use of the whip in favour of Manxman who was just beaten in a very tight finish.
“Then they appealed and they brandished the expulsion tool at Manxman and Alphonse Le Grande got it back. Manxman has only run seven times since and I can’t toss him in with confidence because I think he’s an easy-ground horse but he bolted up in a small-field race at Goodwood last time. He’s only got a small penalty and has Toby Moore claiming seven.
“If there is significant rain he is far better than a 20/1 chance but you only have to look at his career record, they’ve avoided top of the ground for the last few years, by and large."
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