Cesarewitch preview and guide to some of the main contenders

British value

Irish-trained horses have obviously come to the fore in the Cesarewitch lately but it’s not a complete domination, with the Brits trailing 4-6 over the past decade.

So, while it seems highly unlikely we’ll see a repeat of the British-based one-two-three-four when Sweet Selection led home First Mohican, Sea Of Heaven and The Cashel Man in the 2016 edition, the Crisfords were obviously a shade unlucky not to lift the trophy 12 months ago and Ian Williams had the 33/1 third in Aqwaam as well.

In 2023, Brian Ellison saddled Tashkhan to be third at 25/1 and David Pipe’s Bashful Boy was fourth at 100s in the same race, while the home team had the second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in behind Charles Byrnes-trained winner Run For Oscar just three years ago.

Byrnes, Tony Martin and Willie Mullins are all well represented near the head of the betting but don’t be afraid to consider an each-way dart against the rather obvious Irish contingent.

Jump and travel

It will come as no shock whatsoever after just a glance at the trainers who have been responsible but it’s worth underlining that eight of the past 10 Cesarewitch winners had previous experience over jumps.

The last Flat-only campaigner to prevail was Withhold for Roger Charlton in 2017, with last year’s winner Alphonse Le Grande and 2021 scorer Buzz having made seven starts over hurdles prior to winning on the level at Newmarket.

The Shunter is back for a third try having taken top spot in 2023 and finished mid-pack last year. Prior to winning this a couple of years ago, he'd run 17 times over hurdles and made 11 starts over fences, becoming the first winner with chasing experience since Alan King’s Grumeti in 2015.

Willie Mullins’ three previous winners – Great White Shark, Stratum and Low Sun – had all run between eight and 11 times over hurdles in the past, with Bunting the one of his this time around bringing a similar sort of profile having made eight hurdle starts and just four on the level.

Hipop De Loire has had a total of 28 Flat starts (the majority of which for previous connections) and just two over timber, with Winter Fog something of a veteran of the NH scene after 25 hurdle and two chase appearances. He has, however, only had the bare minimum three Flat outings to qualify for a race like the Cesarewitch, and his BHA mark of 85 is fully 65lb lower than the Irish rating he had for this year’s Guinness Galway Hurdle (150).

Incidentally, the Byrnes-trained Reverend Hubert, winner of the official Trial over the same course and distance last month, has had exactly the same number of hurdle starts as the same stable’s 2022 winner, Run For Oscar. On top of that, he’s also raced four times over fences, winning beginners/novice chases on good to firm and good ground last summer.

Penalty corner

The aforementioned Reverend Hubert carries a 4lb penalty on Saturday and, effectively running off a mark of 83, appears to be 6lb well-in based on his latest revised Flat mark of 89.

He’s not the only one, though, with fellow Irish challengers Queenstown (3lb), Dawn Rising (2lb) and last year’s last Ndaawi (1lb) technically just in front of the assessor.

The other half-dozen in that bracket are all UK-based horses. Like the Byrnes-trained market leader, Adrian Keatley’s Surrey Belle is due to go up 10lb after her taking victory at the Ayr Gold Cup Festival, the form of which has worked out very well with eight-length second, Spinning Wheel, winning at Leicester off an unchanged mark and third home, Tafsir, denied by a short-head at Hamilton (off 1lb lower).

Andrew Balding’s Belgravian was only third to Reverend Hubert in the recent Trial but he had to run off his updated mark 96 that day, on the back of completing a hat-trick at Goodwood in August, and he’s now able to race off 6lb lower with just the 4lb penalty as that latest success came after the Cesarewitch weights were published.

The Ian Williams-trained Beylerbeyi doesn’t have a penalty as such but he’s been running very well in defeat since his Ces mark (91) was released and will be competing off 5lb higher in future handicaps, while Hughie Morrison’s Caprelo is 3lb well-in under the mandatory 4lb extra for his eased-down Kempton win under Oisin Murphy in early-September (Tyler Heard is set to take over this weekend though he’ll be a shade out of the handicap if either of the top two – Hipop De Loire or Queenstown – are declared on Thursday morning).

York third Fireblade is 1lb well-in for the Dylan Cunha yard and so too is James Owen’s East India Dock, without success since winning the Chester Cup off a mark of 89 in May but a creditable second in Listed company over two miles here at the Cambridgeshire meeting.

WATCH: Beylerbeyi stays on for a close-up third at Newbury

Charlie bucket list

Thirteen three-year-olds have run in the Cesarewitch over the past decade – unlucky for some. Unlucky for the lot of them, in truth, as they’ve all been beaten including subsequent Group-race winner Coltrane who was sent off at 5/1, plus Ranch Hand who was 15th as the 11/2 favourite in 2019 and Southern France who could do no better than seventh for Aidan O’Brien as 4/1 favourite in 2018.

Among that tally of 13, Mark Johnston was responsible for five of them and the major Middleham yard was no doubt buoyed by winning the Cesarewitch with a three-year-old way back in 1998. They’ve since added two more victories with older horses but haven’t had a runner at all since Themaxwecan only beat a couple home in 2021, the final season Johnston senior held the licence outright.

It is noteworthy, then, that Charlie Johnston saddles his first Cesarewitch runner this Saturday and it’s a three-year-old in the Godolphin-bred Pole Star, who was unraced at two but has progressed throughout 2025 and looked unlucky not to finish closer than he did after being slightly hampered at Haydock last month.

Unraced beyond a mile and three-quarters, the son of Teofilo shapes like he could find further progression now presented with a thorough test of stamina. He’s a player at a price, but recent history tells us it’s a particularly stiff task, even for a potentially well-handicapped youngster like Pole Star.

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