Our man dissects the Cazoo Oaks in inimitable fashion and he throws in Coronation Cup thoughts for good measure ahead of Epsom on Friday.
Farewell to the WFG
Hats off to Epsom for naming the Derby in honour of Lester but the walnut-faced grandfather, as he was memorably described in an excellent RP report on his 30th and final Classic aboard Rodrigo de Triano, wasn’t too dusty in the Oaks and the Coronation Cup, either.
Six Oaks successes began with a royal success on Carrozza in 1957 – after which the Queen led her flighty filly and 21-year-old rider into the winner’s circle with “a mighty jerk” according to reports – and continued with the brilliant Petite Etoile in 1959 and a first Classic success for a youthful Dermot Weld aboard Blue Wind in 1981.
Petite Etoile supplied two of Piggott’s nine Coronation Cups in 1960 and 1961 and, although there is never a good time to go, there’s something highly appropriate that the greatest to ever do it should depart at the start of the week he dominated like no other.
Of course, we all tend to view the passing of legendary figures through the light of our own prism nowadays.
My most vivid recollections of Lester started as a 16-year-old schoolboy hitch-hiking to Epsom to see him lift The Minstrel home in the 1977 Derby and peaked fifteen years later when I was on Timeform duty for that final Classic aboard Rodrigo.
It still seems scarcely believable that Lester was 56 that day but his epic legacy – along with a persona that was the antithesis of modern celebrity - had been more than forty years in the making.
Sporting genius can often seem to come into the game fully formed in both talent and temperament and, like Tiger, Ali, Jordan and Maradona, there was never a moment’s doubt that Piggott was destined for greatness.
It isn’t often you can say “there will never be another like him.” But, in the case of the walnut-faced grandfather, you can say that with maximum confidence.
Lady looks a live longshot
It’s nine years since an Oaks winner was trained by anyone other than Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden and the decade of dominance ought to continue at Epsom on Friday.
True, Ralph Beckett captured the race twice before the Big Two took control. That will lure some into Moon de Vega but, as with all longshots, there are positives and negatives.
Moon de Vega fans will say she was stopped in her run in the Cheshire Oaks but she was five lengths behind at the time and more than six adrift when Thoughts Of June hit the line.
Thoughts Of June fans will say she’s trained by Aidan and galloped on willingly from the front at Chester but most analysts would agree she would have been beaten by Joseph O’Brien’s Above The Curve had that filly enjoyed smoother transit.
Tranquil Lady fans will point out that Joseph runs her in preference to Sunday’s French G1 winner Above The Curve and that she showed improved form to bolt up in a Naas G3. And, for all that Tranquil Lady is in much deeper here, that view does have merit.
With The Moonlight and Rogue Millennium fans will argue they showed improvement to land trials at Newmarket and Lingfield – but the form of those races may not be all it seems.
In-house duels the key to Oaks success
Emily Upjohn versus Nashwa and Tuesday versus Concert Hall.
The outcome of these two duels will go a long way towards shaping the 2022 Oaks so let’s lay out the pros and cons again.
Tuesday’s big sister Minding won the Oaks, as did Concert Hall’s dam Was, and there’s only half a length between them on the form they showed to chase Homeless Songs home on a socially distanced basis in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
It was confirmed on Wednesday that Ryan partners late foal Tuesday, who only turns three on Friday, but he was on the wrong O’Brien filly last year (Santa Barbara not Snowfall) and in 2018 (Magic Wand not Forever Together) and the way that Concert Hall hit the line at the Curragh hints that she might better suited to the extra half mile.
Seamie Heffernan will be hoping it’s a case of ‘like mother like daughter’ having partnered Was to victory ten years ago and the fact that Concert Hall is a seasoned pro after eight runs looks another feather in her cap.
Neither of the Gosden pair are seasoned pros at this point but they dominate the market for a reason. Or should I say, somewhat different reasons.
Emily Upjohn is a high-cruising powerhouse who crushed inferior rivals with sustained galloping at Sandown and York, while Nashwa is a silky smooth-travelling holdup filly who settled matters by rattling off a series of impressive closing splits at Haydock and Newbury.
Dettori will be at pains to keep Emily’s exuberance in check during the severe early climb as he bids for his 22nd British Classic, while Doyle will probably be aiming to preserve the sharpest turn of foot in the race until as late as possible as she seeks her first.
My strongest view on a compelling Classic is that the Gosdens are holding aces. And combining Emily and Nashwa with Concert Hall and Tranquil Lady might just be the way to go for World Pool Quinella and Trio purposes.
Relaxation the key to Manobo’s Coro Cup chances
When was the last time a stable’s fourth best older colt went off favourite for one of Europe’s premier twelve-furlong contests?
It’s hard to think it has ever happened before – even when Sir Henry and the peerless Vincent were in their pomp - but that’s where we find ourselves with Manoobo in Friday’s Coronation Cup.
Derby winners Adayar and Hurricane Lane are currently rated 131 and 128 by Timeform, while the mercurial BC Turf hero Yibir is 127 and possibly headed for Squiggletown – while Manobo is currently ‘only’ 121p.
Charlie Appleby won’t be fussed about ratings as his lightly-raced Sea The Stars colt comes back in trip for Friday’s showdown but he will be anxious to see Manobo settle much better than he did when pulling Will Buick’s arms out over two miles in the Dubai Gold Cup.
It’s possible Manobo will relax nicely granted a stronger pace back at a shorter trip but I’m not mad on taking 9/4 to find out against last year’s winner Pyledriver plus the reliable Hukum and a seemingly revitalised High Definition.
Better late than never as HD finally heads to Epsom
The chances of bookies making a major error in a six-runner G1 are roughly on a par with me suggesting that High Definition was a G1 winner in waiting.
Or, to be more accurate, they were on a par until Aidan O’Brien’s frustrating colt split Alenquer, State of Rest and Lord North in the Tattersalls Gold Cup over a mile and a quarter recently.
Moore made High Definition’s mind up early from the front at the Curragh and he responded with much the best run of his career, giving best only close home in a truly-run race and keeping on in a manner that suggests a return to a mile and a half should be ideal.
The memories of too many grainy black and white efforts mean it’s impossible to bank on last year’s ante post Derby favourite building on that.
But there was a good deal more colour about his Curragh run. And, twelve months on from what was meant to be his big day, maybe this is finally the time for High Definition to show himself in glorious HD.
G-Rod fishing in a risky pool
I nodded agreement when RP gasbag Graeme ‘G-Rod’ Rodway torched telly bods for brown nosing trainers; chortled at the fuzzy logic behind his assertion that Cachet not Coroebus was the real star of Guineas weekend; and smiled at his suggestion that Desert Crown has the drop on Baaeed because who doesn’t love the smell of clickbait in the morning?
But the problem with cultivating a hot take persona is that them takes need to get hotter and hotter. And so it was that a puzzled yet punchy ‘G-Rod’ fired up the laptop last week to tell readers that the evens favourite for the Oaks should be a 5/1 chance while her stablemate should be 11/8 rather than 5/1.
“I don’t understand why Emily Upjohn is such a short price,” he cried, before adding that “Nashwa was by far the most impressive trial winner to my eye.”
At this point it’s worth asking yourself if you have ever studied a mature Classic market after all the trials are run and concluded that the combined wisdom of the entire bookmaking and punting profession had made not one but two colossal ricks in the same race?
I’m not sure it’s ever happened once in my long years of pondering such matters but maybe ‘G-Rod’ has unearthed a golden nugget or two that the rest of us have missed.
“Emily Upjohn won the Musidora well,” he conceded, “but the runner-up had won just a maiden, the 28-1 third a novice, and the fourth was rated just 88.”
The fact that Emily towelled her four rivals – each of them well related and wholly unexposed winners - by five and a half lengths in a G3 didn’t get a mention.
Nor did the fact that Nashwa’s Newbury Listed win came at the expense of a runner-up who ran to a RPR of just 74 to win at Wolverhampton and a third and non-staying fourth who’d been beaten in an Ascot minor event and tailed off in the 1000 Guineas.
For the record, I share the Rodway view that Nashwa has G1 ability - and the ‘Oi-Oi’s’ will surely ring all around the RPTV studios if she surges clear on Friday – but ‘G-Rod’ is surely fishing with these outlandish ‘shouts.’
And, as you can see from the last eight paragraphs, it can cause gasbags from a different corner of the modern media pool to bite.
Recommendation: Puttherodaway G: 5pts win at 5/1 (11/8 or evens also acceptable).
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