Can Inspiral bounce back from her shock odds-on defeat in the Falmouth Stakes?

"It can happen," said John Gosden, following Inspiral’s limp defeat as 1/7 favourite in last week’s Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. "...when they run at Ascot and then come here, especially given she hadn’t run since the previous October."

Gosden probably wouldn't have been lynched had he left the post-race reaction at those three opening words. It can and it does happen, of course odds-on favourites are beaten every week, but it doesn’t happen much at Group One level and it's evidently very rare at such prohibitive odds.

To hammer the point home, Cheveley Park’s Inspiral had the ignominy of becoming just the second defeated 1/7 market leader in a Group One since the turn of the millennium – and in so doing joined 2016 Irish St Leger runner-up Order Of St George as the short-priced horse to be turned over in that period.

The next shortest loser was Taghrooda at 1/5 in the 2014 Yorkshire Oaks and you’re then looking on the wall of shame at Yeats (ha! I know…) as 2/7 jolly in the 2006 Irish Leger, before a bunch of horses at 3/10 and 1/3 which include Alpha Centauri, Six Perfections, Midday and Australia.

The first three of that final quartet are fillies, as is Taghrooda of course, so when it comes to whether or not we should all be waving red flags, or looking to answer the question of what to expect from Inspiral next time we see the daughter of Frankel in action, it’s worth taking a deeper dive into how these formerly flashy females fared in subsequent starts after defeat at odds-on.

There have now been seven fillies in total beaten at odds shorter than evens in Group One company since 2000, and for full disclosure the remaining unnamed pair are Minding and Sariska.

I’m loathe to toss Sariska from the conversation entirely, as short-price disappointment can clearly be a sign of things to come, and fillies rapidly on the wane, but I think it’s fair to say that Michael Bell’s Sariska was something of a challenge from the outset, while specifically in relation to her three-quarter length second to Dar Re Mi when 4/11 for the 2019 Yorkshire Oaks, it transpired almost immediately after that she was heavily in season.

We can, however, safely overlook any evidence surrounding Alpha Centauri as she never raced again after being found to be clinically abnormal when outmuscled by Laurens in the Matron Stakes towards the end of her Classic campaign in 2018.

We’re certainly not looking at an impending retirement for Inspiral, with Gosden senior signing off last Friday with: “We’ll freshen her up and go again. She seems happy enough."

What’s pivotal to the whole debate regarding Inspiral is that, on the one hand, she was flat as a millpond in the Falmouth, certainly by direct comparison to Royal Ascot when Newmarket conqueror Prosperous Voyage finished nine lengths in arrears, but she wasn’t beaten out of sight – she was beaten a length and three-quarters by a seriously capable filly who nearly won the QIPCO 1000 Guineas in May.

Six Perfections is a filly who knew all about finishing second in a Guineas. In the same Niarchos family silks as Alpha Centauri, coincidentally, she went off 30/100 for the Irish Guineas after finding only Russian Rhythm too good on the Rowley Mile.

She was agonisingly short-headed by Yesterday at the Curragh and, in addition, was also beaten at odds-on in a French Group One (Prix d'Ispahan) the following year, but on a brighter note she did add two more G1 wins to her tally after her odds-on Classic defeat, including a particularly memorable moment in the 2003 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita.

Taghrooda only raced the once after her narrow odds-on Yorkshire Oaks reverse eight years ago, but ended her time on the track with a highly creditable third to Treve in the 2014 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, while Inspiral’s connections could arguably take most heart from the tale of Minding, who was also beaten on the second start of her three-year-old season, before going on to win four Group One races.

Midday concluded her career with six top-level victories and although only one of those came after her Pretty Polly Stakes flop at 1/3 in 2011, it did come in the Nassau Stakes on her very next start.

So while Gosden was quick enough to clutch at the bounce-factor from Ascot and the reasonably lively conditions on the July Course last week, what’s patently clear is that fillies can always be afforded the benefit of the doubt after an off-day or two, particularly at such an early stage of their career.

And although it may be difficult to feel wholly confident she’ll come roaring straight back to that Coronation Stakes form as soon as the Nassau - if allowed to take her chance - at Goodwood later this month, as for whether Inspiral will yet taste more success at the highest level? History dictates: it can happen.

Horses beaten at odds-on in Group One races in UK/IRE since 2000

Fillies and mares in bold

• INSPIRAL 1/7 - 2022 TATTERSALLS FALMOUTH STAKES
• CRACKSMAN 2/5 - 2020 PRINCE OF WALES’S STALES
• ALPHA CENTAURI 30/100 - 2018 MATRON STAKES
• CHURCHILL 1/2 - 2017 ST JAMES'S PALACE STAKES
• ORDER OF ST GEORGE 1/7 - 2016 IRISH ST LEGER
• MINDING 4/11 - 2016 IRISH 1000 GUINEAS
• GOLDEN HORN 4/9 - 2015 JUDDMONTE INTERNATIONAL STAKES
• AUSTRALIA 30/100 - 2014 IRISH CHAMPION STAKES
• IVAWOOD 1/2 - 2014 MIDDLE PARK STAKES
• TAGHROODA 1/5 - 2014 YORKSHIRE OAKS
• WAR COMMAND 2/5 - 2013 PHOENIX STAKES
• CAMELOT 4/11 - 2013 TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP
• CAMELOT 2/5 - 2012 ST LEGER STAKES
• MIDDAY 1/3 - 2011 PRETTY POLLY STAKES
• SO YOU THINK 4/11 - 2011 PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES
• STRONG SUIT 4/9 - 2010 PHOENIX STAKES
• SARISKA 4/11 - 2009 YORKSHIRE OAKS
• HENRYTHENAVIGATOR 1/2 - 2007 PHOENIX STAKES
• DYLAN THOMAS 1/2 - 2007 TATTERSALLS GOLD CUP
• YEATS 2/7 - 2006 IRISH FIELD ST LEGER
• HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR 4/9 - 2006 NATIONAL STAKES
• MOTIVATOR 2/5 - 2005 CORAL-ECLIPSE STAKES
• SIX PERFECTIONS 30/100 - 2003 IRISH 1000 GUINEAS
• HAWK WING 1/2 - 2002 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES
• GALILEO 4/11 - 2001 IRISH CHAMPION STAKES
• DARWIN 4/9 - 2000 NATIONAL STAKES