It was a pivotal weekend in terms of trials for the Unibet Champion Hurdle and Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch answers our four key questions.
After a weekend in which he completed his own Unibet Champion Hurdle preparations with a 1/16 success over two Sandown rivals, Buveur D'Air finds himself the shortest-priced favourite at the Cheltenham Festival.
He's 2/5 with Sky Bet to retain his crown at Prestbury Park but does he deserve to be such a short price? What about the key trials in Ireland at the weekend? Is Robbie Power correct in saying star novice Samcro could win the Champion itself this time around?
We asked Jamie Lynch, Chief Correspondent at Timeform, four key Champion Hurdle questions. What does he make of the race this time around?
1: How high does Buveur D’Air set the bar?
In Timeform terms, Buveur D'Air is upwards of 6lb clear of the pack, which translates to around four lengths. Since the days of the legendary Istabraq, in the late 1990s, only Hurricane Fly has posted a better performance in the Champion Hurdle than Buveur D'Air’s rating of 170 last year. Put in that context and you get the idea that he's perhaps a little underappreciated. I'd summarise Buveur D'Air as being the right horse in the right place at the wrong time: the wrong time because there's a paucity of championship-class hurdlers around at present to shed a true light on Buveur D'Air's talent.
2: Robbie Power says Samcro could win the Champion Hurdle – on what you’ve seen so far could he?
On what we've seen so far of Samcro, I wouldn't like to say there's anything he can't do! It's not just the visual impression he's making, but all the data around Samcro's performances, from who he's beating to how he's beating them, via sectional time analysis, suggests that he is indeed the real deal and worthy of all the hype. However, it would be unreasonable to expect him, at this stage, to be able to live with Buveur D'Air in a Champion Hurdle as, from a ratings perspective, there's still the best part of 20lb separating them. To say that Samcro is ready and able now to win a Champion Hurdle is to underestimate the gulf in class between what he had to do in the Deloitte on Sunday and what he'd have to do in a Champion Hurdle next month.
3: Supasundae is still heading down the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle route despite his Irish Champion Hurdle defeat of Faugheen – how tempted would you have been to have a crack at the two miler?
Despite raising his game again on Saturday, Supasundae would still be relying heavily on Buveur D'Air misfiring for a chance of winning the Champion Hurdle, whereas there's now little or nothing between him and the standard-setter in the staying scene, Sam Spinner; Timeform have them on exactly the same rating of 164. There's more glory in winning the Stayers' Hurdle than being placed in a Champion so, for that reason, I think they're absolutely right to set their sights on the long-distance prize.
4: Finally, on Faugheen – how far off his peak performances is he right now? How much improvement does he find between now and March?
The Faugheen of this season is around a stone below his peak, but that says far more about his peak, from the 2016 Irish Champion Hurdle, which makes Buveur D'Air look like a lightweight. The point is that even the watered-down version of Faugheen is still the second-best in the division as things stand, and it wouldn't take too much fine-tuning for him to recalibrate to the level that would give Buveur D'Air some sleepless nights. We know, from the past, that it's in him.
For more of Jamie's work visit www.timeform.com.
