British Flat season: The trainers with the best early records
Ahead of the British Flat season starting at Doncaster on Saturday, Timeform's Tony McFadden looks at which trainers tend to start the season well.
There's still the Irish Grand National, Grand National and Punchestown Festival for jumps fans to look forward to, but attention briefly switches to the Flat this weekend with the Lincoln heralding the start of the British turf season.
With conditions on the soft side and more rain forecast before the action begins, fitness could play an even more important role than usual, so it's worth looking into which trainers tend to have their runners ready to start with a bang.
Record in Flat turf races in April with runners returning from 100+ days off (From 2017 inclusive, Britain and Ireland only, minimum 20 runners, sorted by strike-rate)
- Charlie Appleby 34.55% (19-55)
- William Haggas 29.73% (22-74)
- Roger Varian 27.45% (28-102)
- John & Thady Gosden 25.2% (31-123)
- Stuart Kittow 25% (5-20)
There's no surprise about the name at the top of the list - Charlie Appleby, at around 30%, has the best strike rate among leading trainers across the whole season - but, even so, his early-season performance has been highly impressive, suggesting a lack of fitness is rarely something his rivals can aim to expose.
Backing all of Appleby's runners returning from a layoff in British or Irish turf races in April since 2017 would have resulted in a profit of £10.07 to £1 level stakes, which is all the more meritorious when you consider the largest winning starting price was just 11/2. There is no big-price, shock winner distorting the data - it's just sheer weight of winners at a high strike-rate.
Backing William Haggas' runners would also have been profitable (£23.06) as would siding with Stuart Kittow's representatives (11.25).
Perhaps surprisingly, given his reputation for a patient approach, Sir Michael Stoute's runners meeting the above criteria also turn a level-stake profit, albeit a modest one of £1.41. Stoute, who only just missed out on making the top five, has had 24 winners from 101 runners at a strike rate of 23.76% - that compares favourably to an overall strike rate of around 20% and suggests that while they aren't over-faced early in their careers they are ready to do themselves justice when asked the question.
If you remove the minimum runner criteria it's worth noting the performance of James Tate, who has sent out seven winners from 16 runners at a highly impressive strike rate of 43.75%. Other up-and-coming trainers to note from a smaller sample of runners include James Ferguson (3-5 at 60%), Paddy Twomey (4-9 at 44.44%) and Harry Eustace (3-7 at 42.86%).
Who excels with two-year-olds in April?
Record with two-year-old debutants in turf races in April (From 2017 inclusive, Britain and Ireland only, minimum 5 runners, sorted by strike-rate)
- Charlie Appleby 83.33% (5-6)
- Aidan O'Brien 47.37% (9-19)
- Bryan Smart 41.67% (5-12)
- Fozzy Stack 40% (2-5)
- Alice Haynes 40% (2-5)
Incredibly, only one of the six juvenile debutants that Appleby sent out in a British or Irish turf race in April since 2017 has failed to win - that was Full Verse who finished sixth on debut at Newmarket in 2019 in a race won by stablemate Well of Wisdom.
Appleby has not sent out a juvenile before May in the last couple of seasons, however, and results suggest he seems to be taking a steadier approach with them. Of the six juvenile debutants he sent out in May 2021 only one was successful, while last year it was just two from ten - and they were Noble Style and Naval Power, two of his most talented performers in the division.
Aidan O'Brien's juvenile debutants, in contrast, seem sharper now. In the past two seasons six of the eight juvenile debutants he sent out in April won, while Little Big Bear - who developed into the best in the division last term - was only beaten a short-head on debut. It's also worth noting that Tenebrism won on debut in March 2021.
Bryan Smart's five winners from 12 runners is certainly eye-catching, as is the level-stake profit of £49.87 which suggests his debutants are underestimated. In 2021 Smart's two representatives both won, including Instinction at 28/1, while last year his sole runner meeting the criteria was runner-up. He can clearly get a sharp sort ready early in the season.
Clive Cox (6-16 at 37.5%) also boasts a high strike-rate, as does Tom Clover (2-3 at 66.67%), admittedly from a very small sample.
Richard Hannon (9-54) and Richard Fahey (8-48) have been among the most prolific and operate at a respectable strike-rate of 16.67%, with Fahey's winners turning a level-stake profit (£3.50).
Archie Watson's three winners from 19 runners at a strike-rate of 15.79% is also respectable, but it's well worth noting his record with the juveniles he introduces on the all-weather in April. In the period in question he has sent out six winners from 12 runners at a remarkable 50% strike rate.
Which trainers are heading into the season in form?
Of course, current form on the all-weather - or in Ireland where the turf season began last Saturday - can provide clues about a yard's health.
Jack Channon, who took over following his father Mick's retirement at the end of last year, has made a bright start to his training career and in the last fortnight has sent out two winners and a runner-up (who was beaten a nose) from three runners. Mick Channon won the Lincoln last season with Johan and Jack will be trying to emulate him with Majestic, who signed off for last season by winning the Cambridgeshire.
Ed Bethell and Roger Varian have both sent out two runners and two winners in the last fortnight, while Haggas and Tate have also fared well, sending out three winners from six runners in the same period. Tate's other three runners were all placed, painting the picture of an in-form yard.
O'Brien tended to start the season slowly with his runners usually improving markedly for the initial outing, but - as outlined with his juveniles - that's not been the case in recent years. In 2017 and 2018 O'Brien had just an 11% strike-rate in Flat turf races in March and April with horses that had been off the track for 100 days or more. In 2021 that figure was 18%, while it was 20% last season and he has already made a good start this term, sending out four winners from his 12 runners at a 33% strike rate.
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