Daily Racing Form correspondent Steve Andersen looks ahead to the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, with some banker bets and likely longshots.
For more from Steve Andersen and the Daily Racing Form team leading up to the Breeders' Cup, visit DRF.com.
Thoughts on this year’s Classic
Let's start with the big one on the dirt track and I'm a full FOREVER YOUNG fan, I think he's something out of the ordinary. And with that regard, I just don't see him getting beat as the favourite for this year's Classic.
It's hard to call the Jockey Club Gold Cup a trial as it's one of the big mile and a quarter races in America, but he did have a real easy run there. He beat three horses, none of whom come to the Breeders' Cup, but for a horse who had been off since his second to Magnitude (scratched here) in the Dubai World Cup, and considering his form in the Classic from last year, I find him really hard to oppose.
I certainly respect Sovereignty, I'm surprised he didn't get another run later in the summer but he comes into it off the back of a very good run in the Whitney. And one good thing about him is that he's a patient runner, he doesn't need to be anywhere in particular on the track. So if the early horses really go for a quick pace, not only will it benefit Forever Young, but I think Sovereignty will be the recipient of a favourable journey.
Those two stand out to me quick clearly in the Classic. This is a good group but I don't think it's as strong as some, and it's a rung below last year's race.
Top picks away from the big dirt feature
The Dirt Mile is a good race. This can sometimes draw out one or two who can go for the Classic and favourite FURTHER ADO should have a good journey from stall one, even though it's sometimes not the best draw in the world.
He's won his only previous start here at Keeneland, he won the Bluegrass Stakes easily over a mile and an eighth [nine furlongs] here back in April. He was no good in the Kentucky Derby but came back and ran a pretty good second in the Pennsylvania Derby on September 19 despite a troubled trip. I think he looks good here.
Looking at the Sprint, there's an exceptional three-year-old called ENGLISHMAN. He has done well for trainer Cherie DeVaux and he's drawn the outside post in 13 of 13. He's only been beaten once and his last two wins have been emphatic. I hope Jose Ortiz will get a pretty good trip out wide as this horse is quick enough early to get rolling and into a nice position.
Englishman is preferred to the Japanese horse T O Elvis, who won on Kentucky Derby day by a convincing three and a quarter lengths in the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes when last seen in May 2. He's one to consider and looks the main danger, with Nakatomi possibly one to run on into a place if they got a nutty pace.
I'm keen to try to beat Nitrogen in the Distaff with Chad Brown's FULLY SUBSCRIBED. She's a really nice filly who will enjoy chasing the considerable amount of speed in this race. Nitrogen will bounce out of stall two and get an early position but Fully Subscribed has been winning in a nice manner at Saratoga and Keeneland. She looks pretty tough to me.
I'm also picking COMANCHE BRAVE to beat Bacio in the Turf Sprint because I think the Irish horse will have conditions in his favour. They're doing to go so quick in that race and if Billy Loughnane can work out a trip - and he certainly knows this horse well now after wins in the July Cup and at the Curragh - I think he's the one who will be finishing best. There's no reason why he can't work his way through this field.
I just wonder if Bacio is one of those rare American horses who is better suited to running in Europe. He's got that captivating pace but this is a tougher race. Let's see what he can do.
Diamond among the surprise packages
Notable Speech is an exceptional miler and full credit to him but I'm very interested to see what the Japanese-trained ASK IKIGOMI can do in against him in the Mile. The three-year-old was only beaten a nose by Rodeo Drive in the NHK Mile Cup at Tokyo Racecourse back in May, his only loss so far.
I think he's going to be rolling from just off the pace and I've put him in first among my selections around 20/1. He's going to be a horse to follow I think, he looks comfortable in big fields and I just think it's time to consider something from the 'secondary' list in this Mile division.
Notable Speech is certainly top of the pile and he could double up in this race but I'm going for the Japanese horse. He could be one for Hong Kong in December but it looks significant he comes here and I don't think they're coming over just to see the Bluegrass.
Looking at the Breeders' Cup Turf, I don't see any obvious reason why ETHICAL DIAMOND can't win the big one again. The domestic horses are a nice group but I think the advantage goes to Europe.
Diamond Necklace is my second pick here as getting within a length and a half of Daryz in the Arc is a double check-mark for me, but the betting tells you she's got a brilliant chance.
Ethical Diamond just looks to have been campaigned for this day again. You know with Willie Mullins, whether it's a novice hurdle or a Flat horse, when he gets a race in mind - watch out! That's why I've already booked my hotel to come over and see if I Am Maximus can do a three-timer in the Grand National; it's why we all argue when he runs five in the Albert Bartlett and we don't know which ones to pick.
Now he knows how to come over and win a Breeders' Cup Turf, I just think he'll have planned it meticulously and the horse is being overlooked a little bit as he's not had this flashy 2026 campaign where he's gone and won at Royal Ascot or some place like that. Instead he's had a quieter preparation but if he shows up on the day, I expect him to win.
TEST SCORE is the American horse who could be a big price here too. He won at Del Mar last time in August and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run into the picture late.
In the Filly & Mare Turf, I think EXPENSIVE QUEEN can pull off the upset against Blue Bolt. Her sixth-placed finish at Keeneland last time really doesn't give her credit for the performance as she was stuck in traffic the whole way in the stretch and never got a clear run.
That was in the First Lady Stakes and her defeat in that race was deceptive. She's going over an extra furlong now and I think that'll help her.
One for Future Stars Friday
On the Friday, Sun Goddess is going to be going the mile for the first time after a busy season and she's certainly capable of winning another Juvenile Fillies Turf for Aidan O'Brien, despite the wider draw, but from the domestic horses watch out for VANTA who is going to be a big price.
She's unbeaten in three starts in California and has been winning with a lot in reserve. It will be fun to see if she's got what's needed in the stretch as her finishes have been exceptional.
She looks an each-way contender for trainer Jeff Mullins. He's a Utah-raised guy, an established figure in Southern California, who has enjoyed some excellent success over the last 25 years or so. He's in the midst of a very, very good year and got a new client who own this horse. They've got a core little stable with a sprinter called Queen Maxima who is a multiple Stakes winner in California and on Sunday they have a Grade 2 favourite at Santa Anita.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see this filly acquit herself well, not only on Friday but for 2027 in some of those prominent grass races run around the country. The Friday-Saturday Mullins double could pay a huge price, which isn't something you guys hear too often in Britain and Ireland!
For more from Steve Andersen and the Daily Racing Form team leading up to the Breeders' Cup, visit DRF.com.
More from Sporting Life
- Free bets
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results & free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS & Android app
- Football & other sports tips
- Podcasts & video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
