Breeders' Cup tips 2020: Richard Mann profiles the leading contenders for favouritism at Keeneland

Filly & Mare Sprint

GAMINE

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: John Velazquez

Gamine has to rate as one of the most fascinating runners of the meeting given master trainer Bob Baffert has opted for the Filly & Mare Sprint for a horse who was been widely expected to take another step up the ladder in the 1m1f Kentucky Oaks last time, but was a spent force with over a furlong to run. She still ran with credit, though, and her pair of previous Grade One victories, over 7f at Saratoga and a mile at Belmont, confirm her to be a very fine operator. Despite its title, this race is actually run over 7f here and with her stamina assured and her running style well known, she should take plenty of pegging back up front from stall two.

Turf Sprint

LEINSTER

• Trainer: George Arnold, II
• Jockey: Luis Saez

Battaash might lay claim to being the best Turf sprinter in the world but in his absence, there is every chance this race could see three 5/1 co-favourites. Just about heading the betting at the time of writing is Leinster, a five-year-old who looks somewhere close to the finished article now and is seemingly thriving at present. A winner of two Grade Two events in his last two starts - both over this same course and distance - he really is at his best around Keeneland and should prove a tough nut to crack while evidently at the peak of his powers.

Dirt Mile

COMPLEXITY

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Jockey: Jose Ortiz

It wouldn't be a Breeders' Cup without Chad Brown's name being up in lights but the 'King of the grass' looks to hold his best hand in the Dirt Mile, with Complexity hardening at the top of the market every day on the back of his impressive recent Grade Two defeat of Code Of Honor at Belmont. Brown described Complexity as 'an exceptional talent' recently but he is far from bombproof and was a major disappointment when strongly fancied for the Juvenile at the 2018 Breeders' Cup, folding tamely when when making the running. He is a stronger horse now but won't receive any respite on the front end here.

Filly & Mare Turf

RUSHING FALL

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Jockey: Javier Castellano

With both Tarnawa and Magical on course for the Turf, the door might have been left ajar for Rushing Fall to cap a brilliant and blemish-free season. Chad Brown has done a wonderful job with this mare who has continued to progress and looked at the peak of her powers when bursting Mean Mary's bubble in a terrific finish to the Grade One Diana Stakes at Saratoga. She had stablemate and last year's Filly & Mare Turf runner-up, Sistercharlie, back in third that day and has won on no less that five occasions at Keeneland - ticking yet another box. Still, even with Tarnawa and Magical preferring the Turf, Europe could be well represented with Peaceful and Cayenne Pepper to give this year's renewal a deep complexion.

Sprint

VEKOMA

• Trainer: George Weaver
• Jockey: Javier Castellano

Since taking out a training license in 2002, George Weaver and his wife Cindy Hutter have been searching for that champion that all conditioners so desperately hope they will find. Weaver, former assistant to Todd Pletcher, has seen plenty of good ones in his time but now, under his watch, he might just have found a diamond in the rough: a Breeders' Cup horse. For a trainer in the US, it is what dreams are made of and Vekoma has already taken Weaver to great heights. He was simply sublime when cruising to victory in the Grade One Runhappy Carter Handicap at Belmont Park in June, before beating a stellar field with gutsy display in the Met Mile at the same track. 'I’ve never had a horse with this much talent and determination', argued Weaver and he has looked something special ever since making a striking debut in the fall of 2018. Nevertheless, he has grown in stature since and now looks the real deal, as his unbeaten, three-race, four-year-old campaign illustrates. A game front-runner who is sure to use his deadly mix of speed and stamina to good effect, he has to rate one of the stronger favourites on Breeders' Cup Saturday.

Mile

KAMEKO

• Trainer: Andrew Balding
• Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Uni was brilliant was winning this race at Santa Anita a year ago, quickening up in breathtaking style to hand Chad Brown another notable victory on a night even he might struggle to match in the years to come. In fact, Brown might have to give way to the European challenge 12 months on with English 2000 Guineas winner Kameko heading to Keeneland on the back of a confidence-restoring success in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He was very good in beating a strong field on that occasion having not had things go his way since in Classic triumph, most notably when a blatant non-stayer in the Derby and then when encountering significant traffic problems when apparently set to play a hand in the finish of a vintage renewal of the Sussex Stakes. Despite often promising to be suited by going up in trip, Kameko continues to prove himself most effective at a mile and it is worth remembering that his Guineas victory came in the fastest time recorded. A long season notwithstanding, he seemingly has very few chinks in his armour and must hold rock-solid claims.

Distaff

MONOMOY GIRL

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Florent Geroux

It could be a big few days for trainer Brad Cox and Monomoy Girl will carry the hopes of the locals and when she lines up as a short-price favourite for Distaff. Victory for the daughter of Tapizar would complete a remarkable story for the 2018 winner of this race, who was sidelined for 18 months subsequent to that dazzling display at Keeneland following a bout of colic and muscle issues. However, Cox has nursed his five-year-old back to full health and she has looked every bit as good as she was since returning in May of this year, culminating in another Grade One success at Churchill last month. 'She's happier, and her works are better than they were at three', states Cox, while regular rider Florent Geroux has been at pains to make the same point in recent weeks. If that is the case, expect career earnings already in excess of three million US dollars to swell further this weekend.

Turf

TARNAWA

• Trainer: Dermot Weld
• Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

It has been a challenging year for Dermot Weld and his stable following the death of long-time stable jockey, Pat Smullen, in September. However, rapidly-improving filly Tarnawa gave the yard a real tonic when landing a pair of Group Ones at ParisLongchamp in the autumn, the latter a gritty success in the Prix de l'Opera on Arc day. She was still a maiden at the start of her three-year-old career but progressed throughout that campaign and has taken her form to another level this term, going unbeaten in three starts. Weld described Tarnawa 'as a stayer with speed' recently when also suggesting she was the best chance he has had to register his first win at the Breeders' Cup. Christophe Soumillon has been confirmed for the ride once again. All the lights are green.

Classic

IMPROBABLE

• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr

'You just can't beat Baffert', concluded trainer Barclay Tagg having just seen Tiz The Law lose out to the Baffert-trained Authentic in the Preakness Stakes last month. That pair will renew hostilities in the Classic but silver-haired maestro has another ace in his pack this time, with Improbable currently heading the betting following his runaway, last-to-first victory in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. He routed Maximum Security - another now trained by Baffert following Jason Servis' ban - on that occasion to make it three Grade One victories on the spin and he is a colt improving at a rate of knots. Sporting the same colours of one-time Classic hope McKinzie, Improbable is a much tougher version with a penchant for getting naughty at the starting gates earning him something of a reputation. It hasn't affected his performance on the track of late but it is worth noting that those three victories this term have all come on his home patch at Santa Anita, and Baffert has expressed some concerns about his ability to keep his cool away from familiar surroundings. It is something punters will be minded to keep a close eye on as the preliminaries develop on Saturday.

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