We caught up with Daily Racing Form’s Southern California correspondent, Steve Andersen, to pick his brains on the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
How much of a blow to the meeting is the scratching of Sovereignty?
The absence of Sovereignty from the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a big disappointment, not only for the race itself which had the shape of one of the best Breeders’ Cup Classic’s in history, but also for the meeting’s appeal to the general American sports audience.
To have the Kentucky Derby winner in the race there’s a greater general interest in the contest and there’s definitely a box office loss in his absence. It’s a shame as he looked so good in the Travers and this had been the goal for so many weeks and months.
Where do you want to be positioned in the Classic on Del Mar’s dirt track?
It’s the sort of track where you don’t want to leave yourself with too much to do. The stretch is less than a quarter of a mile long, it’s pretty short. You don’t want to turn in with six lengths to find as the chances are the horses in front aren’t stopping as much as you’d like them to.
You need to be within three or four lengths with a quarter of a mile remaining and even if you’re that close you need to be really coming along. It’s not a European-style course by any measure. You need to be a lot farther along on this track.
Who deserves to be favourite in Sovereignty’s absence?
Fierceness deserves to be favourite now. He was a course and distance winner in the Pacific Classic on August 31 here in a very nice manner, he won by three-and-a-quarter lengths over Journalism and did so from the inside post.
He’s got the same draw, Johnny Velazquez knows how to ride him, he’s won four stakes races on him in the last year and six stakes races on him in his career, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita in 2023. I expect Fierceness to come out of the gate and be handy. He could be really tough to beat.
Do you think the Japanese challenger Forever Young can improve on his third placing from last year?
There’s a lot of nice comments about Forever Young. He’s a world traveller, like a Formula 1 car, having been to Japan, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and out in the United States a few times. Last year he was beaten two-and-three-quarter lengths in this race and I think he might be better this year.
To beat Romantic Warrior from Hong Kong at Riyadh, where they were separated by just a neck, was one of the best races of the year and they were over 10 lengths clear of the Japanese runner Ushba Tesoro who was a very good horse.
Third in the Dubai World Cup after that, running a credible race, he came back to win a trial at a small track in Japan on October 1 in good fashion, I thought he ran very well and he could become the first Japanese-based runner to win this race. It could happen.
Sierra Leone benefitted from a strong pace here last year, will he get a similar set up this time?
Sierra Leone looks good, as we all know won last year and he’s a closer. Chad Brown and Peter Brant have put Contrary Thinking in here and he’s never won a stakes race, he’s in here as a rabbit, a pacemaker. You don’t see that in the United States like you often do in Britain, whether it works or not remains to be seen.
Horses that stalk Contrary Thinking, horses like Fierceness and Forever Young to name two, could be well placed and Sierra Leone is going to have to run by both to win the race which could be very tough for him.
It could be tactical, a jockeys race, and it will be interesting to see if they let Contrary Thinking have a clear lead midway through. These are different circumstances to what we expected with no Sovereignty and Sierra Leone might not get the set up he had last year even with his pacemaker in there.
How are you going to bet the Breeders’ Cup Classic?
My pick is FIERCENESS. I wanted to pick him anyway with Sovereignty in the race but he becomes a stronger fancy now. I had all the respect in the world for Sovereignty, it was just a case of whether I put one first or second in my rank.
But now I go Fierceness, Forever Young, Journalism and Sierra Leone in that order. I think any of the four could win it but Fierceness has the edge.
Can the Classic winner challenge Sovereignty for Horse of the Year?
It will be interesting, it remains to be seen. If a horse like a Mindframe or an Antiquarian came from off the pace to win the Classic then you’d see support for Sovereignty in the Horse of the Year, no doubt, but if Fierceness wins it the debate could open up.
What’s your best bet at the meeting away from the Classic?
I need you to look at REEF RUNNER in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (19.41 GMT). He’s 6/1 on the early prices in the States and I believe you can get 10/1 and bigger in the UK. We’ll see if that holds up. It’s a highly competitive race, but Reef Runner has a stalking style and drawn in post two I think he’s got a chance to get a good trip from that draw.
He can save some ground and make his move in the stretch under Tyler Gaffalione. It’s the same on the turf course as it is on the dirt, you don’t want to be too far back going five-eighths.
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