Recommended Bets: Breaking It Down
1pt win Red Riverman in 3.55 Cartmel at 7/1
1pt win Havana Beat in 2.30 Uttoxeter at 11/8
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3.55 Cartmel preview
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Domtaline bounced back to form four starts back over hurdles winning nicely off 106. He hasn't disgraced himself since and switches back to fences, a mark of 116 is slightly off putting but he remains in rude health and should run his race.
Boss Des Mottes has been on the decline this year and has been showing a bit more of late. I feel he is ready to win off this mark and if he repeats his effort of two starts back he should go close.
Another horse who has dropped in the weights but at a more rapid rate is Polkarenix, the market will be the best guide to his chances.
Favourite Endeavour is a horse who tends to relish fast run races especially at Cartmel where his last three victories have been. At 2/1 he looks short enough for me and there isn't much juice to be had at those odds.
The other twelve year old Accessallareas may get a soft lead here and if that does occur he could be dangerous off the front at a track like Cartmel. His run at Market Rasen is good enough to be very competitive today.
The interesting horse in the race is RED RIVERMAN. He's had a 563-day break and has posted some decent efforts in his career which include his last run off a five pound higher mark. It's encouraging that Nigel Twiston-Davies has kept him in training and catching him fresh off a lowly mark may be the play. With this type of horse he could run no race whatsoever but in a race where there is no stand out horse he is worth chancing at 7/1.
2.30 Uttoxeter preview
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I like the way Burrow Lanes goes about his business early on his races but he tends to finish very weakly, connections have reverted back to cheekpieces and tongue tie in hope they help him see out his race.
HAVANA BEAT has come up against two decent rivals on both his starts over hurdles thus far, I like his attitude and enthusiasm and this looks a decent opportunity to get his first win over hurdles.
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Breaking It Down P&L:
June: -10.10pts
May: +30pts
Posted at 0845 BST on 02/07/17.
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