Breaking It Down: Murt Khan's daily horse racing tip
Owner and pro punter Murt Khan thinks today could be the day for a Micky Hammond-trained outsider at Market Rasen.
Recommended bets:
2.05 Market Rasen preview
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The pace in this race is likely to come from Double Court, who didn't seem to stay the three-mile trip at Perth last time. The better ground over two and a half miles will suit him but he doesn't have the most convincing profile.
Arabian Oasis ran a solid race yesterday and if he takes part he has every right to go close on the book if turning out again.
Favourite Cape Hideaway ran a cracker last time out when getting outbattled by Arabian Oasis over a trip two furlongs shorter than today. He showed a nice turn of foot and that could be more effective over today's trip but his overall record is offputting (just one win from 21 career starts).
Sweeping Rock is another horse taking a step up in trip but he is also hard to win with and seems a bit tripless.
OVERTOUJAY ran a creditable race over three miles two starts ago and wasn't beaten too far, looking like he could do with a drop down in trip. Next time out he unseated his rider at the second hurdle. He's overpriced at 18/1 and worth saving on.
A horse who has caught my eye on a couple of occasions now is SWINTON DIAMOND. Last year he looked like a bit of a handicap project for the Ian Williams yard and showed some ability in novice events where he was going off at big prices.
On his handicap debut he was running off 108 and didn't run too badly at all at Wetherby, finishing fourth of 17.
He then changed hands and moved to Micky Hammond's yard and his first run for them was disappointing on slow ground, but his next start after a three-month break was more promising.
Settled in behind, he travelled and jumped really well for the first two miles of the race. Joe Colliver then made his move on the horse a bit too early in my opinion going from eighth to more or less taking it up in the space of about half a furlong.
Ideally, I would have preferred to have seen the horse have been able to hang around a bit longer at the front after making that move, but he soon began to weaken.
However, I like the fact he is running back over two and a half miles here today having been over three miles last time, he has dropped another 8lb so runs off a mark of 92 and he's a good-looking son of Dubai Destination who I feel has a race or two in him. This is a poor race and feel 10/1 is worth chancing.
Thursday's review - 2.35 Newton Abbot
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A morning gamble developed on INDIAN RUPEE, but he never looked like he was going to be involved in the finish. He appeared to be holding a nice position in a predictably strongly-run race but disappointingly weakened quickly a long way out. It was only a moderate contest, but turned out to offer a thrilling finish as No No Cardinal rallied to battle it out with eventual winner Lined With Silver. They came home well clear, but only three finished.
Eyecatcher of the day - 3.00 Chester - Via Egnatia
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VIA EGNATIA is a buzzy type, but a horse with lots of ability. He was lit up as soon as the stalls opened yesterday and ran far too keenly, even with the application of a hood. In the circumstances, he did notably well to finish fourth from way back. It will be interesting to see if connections drop him down in trip or change tactics in the hope that he might settle better from the front. Whichever the case, he remains well handicapped and a horse to follow.
Posted at 0845(BST) on 12/05/17.
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