Sky Bet's Richard Horner previews the Grand National

The Last Samuri: Runner up last year, beaten six lengths by Rule The World and will have to overcome a 12lb higher mark if he is going to go one better this time around. Has plenty of ground to make up on Definitly Red who beat him at Doncaster last time out and renews that rivalry on the same terms on Saturday. The likely decent ground will suit him better though and not hard to see him running another huge race and maybe even going one better, although it will be tough. He showed he was very capable still off nearly this high a mark when running a blinder in the Becher over these fences in December. 

More Of That: A World Hurdle win in 2014  when beating the supermare Annie Power is the highlight of his career so far and he gets the chance to surpass even that in the National. He hasn’t quite hit those heights over the bigger obstacles but ran a nice race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time when beaten 10 lengths into sixth place. Barry Geraghty has picked him from the JP Mcmanus owned-horses, a list that includes Cause Of Causes so he must be expecting a big run. He has bled once in the past but if taking to the fences has the class to go close.

Shantou Flyer: No seven-year-old has won the National for 77 years so the stats are stacked against this one. He was a distant second to Cue Card at Ascot last time and was beaten off this mark the time before at Cheltenham in January. Doesn’t look to be on that appealing a handicap mark and usually horses that carry as much weight as him in a National are bordering on Grade One class.

Perfect Candidate: Has been in very good form this season including a win last time out at Exeter when jumping well and making the running to run out a good winner. Those sort of tactics usually pay dividends around Aintree so could go well for a long way but the feeling is that a career high handicap mark off 156 as a ten-year-old may make him vulnerable to a few.

Saphir Du Rheu: A very exciting prospect a couple of years ago and won the Grade One novice chase at this meeting. Back then he looked sure to go on to big things. That didn’t quite go to plan last term but he has come back well this season including a win at Kelso and a good run in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham when finishing fifth, just in front of More Of That. There would be a question mark on him truly getting home over this trip but if getting his jumping together he has the class to go well for a long way.

Roi Des Francs: Teenage Irish jockey sensation Jack Kennedy takes the ride on this one who warmed up with a cosy win at Down Royal last time – albeit in a contest he should have been winning if he had any chance here. Gigginstown’s retained rider Bryan Cooper prefers the chances of Rogue Angel and it will be a bit of a surprise if this fellow is good enough to defy a mark of 154.

Wounded Warrior: Had a couple of placed efforts in Grade One chases in 2015 in which he looked like a test such as this would be right up his street but his recent form has been pretty poor and he would need to show significant improvement to figure. He has worn headgear in his last three runs which are left off on Saturday and that may show him in a better light but hard to be confident.

Wonderful Charm: Has been in very good form this year in hunter chases including when a close second to Pacha du polder at the Cheltenham festival last time out. He did run poorly in this race last year but that was on much softer ground than he will get here so should go better on Saturday. The main point would be his handicap mark of 153 which looks on the high side and a place may be the best he can hope for.

Tenor Nivernais: Can run off the same handicap mark of 152 from which he was an easy winner two runs back at Ascot as the weights had already been framed. However he was given another race since at Kelso where he was a disappointing favourite. That suggests this hasn’t always been Plan A to me and his best form has been on soft or heavy ground so passed over readily.

Blaklion: The winner of the Grade One RSA chase at Cheltenham last year and he looks to have been brought along this season with Saturday in mind. He showed he is on a good mark at Haydock last time when a close second to Vieux Lion Rouge and with top jockey Noel Fehily taking the ride, he looks sure to go really well if taking to the fences.

Drop Out Joe: Hasn’t been seen since winning the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter last June and it will be some training performance if Charlie Longsdon can ready him for this after such an absence. He also has to race off an 8lb higher mark and hard to see him being involved at the business end.

Le Mercurey: Another seven-year-old who is unlikely to change the bad record of that age group here. Doesn’t look the strongest of stayers for this sort of test and was disappointing on heavy ground at Kelso last time. Hard to see him winning.

The Young Master: Ridden by amateur Sam Waley-Cohen who has a great record over the National fences and this one has a live chance as he is only two pounds higher than when winning the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April. A light campaign this year suggests this has been the plan all along and there were more encouraging signs at Cheltenham last time when a running on sixth in the Ultima Handicap suggesting he can go well here if jumping round as he failed to do on his only attempt over the big fences in the Becher Chase in December.

Cause of Causes: A great servant to connections, winning three years running at the Cheltenham Festival and comes here in top form after a comfortable success in the Cross Country Chase in March. He has raced once in the National before, finishing a staying on eighth in 2015 after a hold up ride from Paul Carberry that didn’t see him in his best light. Barry Geraghty though has chosen More Of That so top amateur Jamie Codd gets to keep the mount after winning on him at Cheltenham and if in that sort of form again he’ll get a great spin.

Regal Encore: Another horse owned by JP Mcmanus and he’s partnered by Gold Cup-winning jockey Robbie Power. He is not a horse you could back though as despite the odd good run he has been pulled up in six of his last eight races suggesting it doesn’t take too much for him to down tools. That’s not what is required here.

Vieux Lion Rouge: Ran well for a long way as a seven-year-old in last season’s National but didn’t seem to get home then in the soft ground, eventually beaten over 40 lengths. Has come back stronger this year with wins in the Becher Chase over these fences and at Haydock in the Grand National Trial meaning and he is officially well in here as he gets no penalty for that display. A lot looks in his favour but the doubt will remain as to  him getting home fully over this trip but should go very well for a long way and could easily reach the frame.

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Definitly Red: Will be very popular with the red halves of Liverpool and Manchester. After his impressive win at Doncaster in the Grimthorpe Chase last time out he is officially 10lb well in here. The doubts would be the ground as most of his best form has come with plenty of cut in it and the last time he ran in a big field on good ground he performed poorly. 

Ucello Conti:  Has completed on both starts over these fences finishing a distant sixth last year when not quite getting home in the soft ground and fourth in the Becher here in December. He had some winning form on good ground for previous connections so forecast conditions are likely to give him more of a chance of seeing the trip out. Should go well.

Double Shuffle: The last of the seven-year-olds who have a poor record but he would have a bit of a chance to improve that if taking to the test as he put in a good performance last time at Kempto,n just getting beaten by Pilgrims Bay in the Betbright chase. He can race off the same handicap mark. Good ground suits him and apart from his age he has a few things going for him.

Houblon Des Obeaux: A real stayer who ran well when fourth at Uttoxeter last time in the Midlands National but the drying ground is not in his favour and unless the clerk of the course overdoes the watering he could well be run off his feet. If the weather does change and the ground was on the slow side he would be a big runner though.

Pleasant Company: He’s the mount of Ruby Walsh who has a good National record and this horse has been given a light campaign this season no doubt with big targets like this in mind. A good fourth in the Thyestes Chase was followed by a win in the Bobbyjo which has been a good trial for this. The one nagging doubt would be good ground as his form is mainly on a slower surface but as a son of Presenting, whose progeny usually go well on quicker ground, he must be a big player if jumping round.

One For Arthur: Looks a real National type who will be one of the most suited by this extreme distance and after impressing at Warwick last time, he has been trained with this one day in mind since. Ideally he would like a bit of rain before the race or plenty of water on the track to slow the others down a bit, especially as hold up horses don’t tend to do too well in the race.  That said if he is anywhere near the front two fences from home I would fancy him to stay on stronger than most.

Ballynagour: Unseated in this last year at the 19th fence when still going ok but before his suspect stamina was tested and as he has been pulled up on his last three starts you couldn’t back him with any confidence. Stable jockey Tom Scudamore not surprisingly prefers to ride Vieux Lion Rouge and this one will be running for the bookies.

O’ Faolains Boy: A one-time very useful horse including a win in the 2014 RSA Chase at Cheltenham, things have not gone so well recently and he has struggled to regain anything like that form. He’s pulled up on four of his last six runs and no surprise to read that apparently the horse has undergone a breathing operation since his last race. The one hope for his backers would be the tweaking with his wind sparks a revival but it requires a leap of faith.

Highland Lodge: Has changed hands recently and runs for the same owners who won the race with Party Politics many years ago. He should give them a good run for their money as he goes really well over these fences as shown when winning the Becher Chase in 2015 and just being caught near the finish in this year’s renewal. The handicapper did him a sort of favour by putting him up enough to get in the race but this means he has it to do with a few of those around him in the Becher. Likely to be up there near the front from the off and should give a bold show but others may be better handicapped.

Bishops Road: Back down to a reasonable handicap mark but does show his best form when, the mud is flying and unseated his rider at the first fence the only time he ran over these fences. An unlikely winner

Lord Windermere: Sprang a surprise when winning the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup and it’s an even bigger surprise now given his form since. Never able to hit anywhere near those heights in subsequent starts and tailed off last time out on softer ground than ideal. The things in his favour would be a falling handicap mark, the likely good ground and the booking of dual National winning jockey Leighton Aspell but even so it would be a shock if he came back to his best here.

Saint Are: Has a mixed record over the fences including a second in the 2015 running behind Many Clouds. Hasn’t fared as well since although did run quite well at Doncaster last time out. Stable jockey Adrian Heskin prefers the chances of Double Shuffle so the excellent Davy Russell comes in for the ride and no surprise if he got the best out of him. Could hit the frame again at a price.

Vicente: Has a good profile for winning this race as he landed the Scottish National last year which is a good trial and can race off just a 1lb higher mark here after a few below par efforts this season. Fair chance that the likely good ground will see some improvement and Trevor Hemmings, the owner of Hedgehunter and Many Clouds, has seen enough to buy the horse before the race so he must think he is going to go really well here.

Just A Par: If this race was run at Sandown he would have a better chance as he goes really well at that course but his two runs at Aintree have been poor. His runnung style of getting behind in his races doesn’t usually pay here and he could be struggling from flag fall despite coming into the race in good form after a win at Newbury last time out.

Measureofmydreams: On his form when third in last year’s National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham where he finished in front of both Vicente and Vieux Lion Rouge he would hold sound claims. However he hasn’t really progressed since then and was well beaten at the same course last month. Jockey bookings suggest he is one of the least fancied of the Gigginstown runners.

Raz De Maree: A very good second in the Welsh National at Chepstow behind subsequent Gold Cup third Native River, this Irish raider should run a big race and did win on good ground at Cork in November. Had a warm up race over hurdles last time out to get him ready for this and not hard to see him going well for his very good jockey Ger Fox.

Stellar Notion: Has been running well in very competitive handicaps in Ireland this season but the furthest he has run over is three miles and it will be a big doubt as to whether he will get home given his attacking style of racing.

Rogue Angel: The previous year’s Irish National is a good trial for this and this fellow won that race. He’s trained by Mouse Morris, who was  last year’s winning trainer, so no doubt he will have had this target in mind all season. He looks to be gradually building up to something and more prominent tactics than recently are likely to be used on Saturday. He’s the choice of retained jockey Bryan Cooper and has plenty in his favour if in the mood although would ideally like a rain shower or two.

Cocktails At Dawn: Trained by top trainer Nicky Henderson but it will be a big surprise if he can work his magic on this fellow who looks to be badly out of form at present. There would have to be a big stamina doubt too and he fell on his only try over these fences, not only when he had his jockey on but also when schooling round himself after parting company with the rider. Hard to recommend on any of that evidence!

Thunder And Roses: The second Mouse Morris-trained runner and also an Irish Grand National winner as he won that race in 2015. A bit in-and-out since, he would ideally like a bit softer ground but not out of it on his best form.

Gas Line Boy: Over 20 lengths behind both Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion at Haydock last time out and nothing to suggest he should be able to turn things around with those two at the same weights. Another unlikely winner

Goodtoknow: Possibly ran back too soon at Haydock last time when disappointing after a Hereford win but this one is likely to need a downpour to feature as all his best form is in the mud and that is unlikely to happen.

La Vaticane: Pulled up at Cheltenham last time out and is not the strongest at the finish usually so very unlikely to be getting involved at the business end here.

Doctor Harper: Wears first time blinkers on Saturday and unless they have a massive effect on him it will be a big surprise if he proves good enough. He has shown glimmers of form in the past but nothing recently would suggest he can win this. 

VERDICT: There are plenty of doubts about many runners this year but despite top weight, I think The Last Samurai will again go close and can reward each-way backers with Sky Bet betting on the first five home. Pleasant Company, representing top connections, could still be improving and last year’s Irish National winner Rogue Angel looks to have been laid out for this.

1st The Last Samurai  2nd Pleasant Company 3rd Rogue Angel 4th Blaklion 5th The Young Master

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